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Top Pair calls ... preliminary studies

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LeFou

08-06-2006, 11:34 PM Post subject: Top Pair calls ... preliminary studies

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Dallas, TX

Posts: 2,361

Quote:

Originally Posted by rilla

...let's get the content up in the future. k?

I was inspired by a couple nice AK hands and the thread in which I revealed my idiocy to crunch some #s on thin calls with top pair.

Preliminary: I have a theory that online players are quite a bit more aware nowadays, even at low stakes, than the players of just a year ago. I think they're realizing that people are getting much better at folding, and I think they're buying pots with substandard hands a lot more often.

So what do you need to stand up to a push that has at least a visible chance of being a bluff or semibluff?

You: AQ Opp ????
Flop A67
Turn J (suited with another card onboard)
You have no doubt raised this up PF in position, bet the pot on the flop, and done around 2/3 the pot on the turn. Now villain pushes. For quite a bit of money -- more than you like getting in there with TP.

Scenarios:
Opp: 67
Those of you who are hip to hidden outs realize you've picked up 3 more on the turn, for an 18% chance of counterfeiting or catching on river. The same odds apply if
You AQ ::::: Opp JT
Flop A7T::::: Turn J
(since the 7s now give you aces-up)

You beat the semibluff flush draw 82% of the time when you call.

If the push has a 30% chance of being a semibluff:
you win (18% X 70%) + (82% X 30%) = 12.6 + 24.6 = 37% of the time. Not bad, that.

Even if only a 20% chance of being a semibluff:
(18% X 80%) + (82% X 20%) = 14.4 + 16.4 = 30.8%

If a semibluff 15% of the time, and a set (you're toast) 15% of the time:
(18% X 70%) + (15% X 82%) = 12.6 + 12.3 = 24.9%

How often do you have the 3:1 or 4:1 you need here?

You raise to 4bb. Opp and another guy calls. pot is about 15bb.
You bet 15 opp calls. other folds. Pot is 45.
You bet 30 opp pushes. Pot is 45 + your 30 + opp's 30 call plus (suppose) 50 more from opp = 155
It seems like you can call 50 to win 155 here, at least sometimes.

I do *not suggest that this is "+EV". I've always been a little skeptical of precise EV calculations (Seems they require that you *know whether the bet is a semibluff 15% of the time, rather than, say, 18%. And I don't think you know that.) But it looks borderline enough to go for it if you have a meta-game "tipping point": you need to give some action; you feel like you need to show one down; you've seen big semibluffs from this opponent

Again, the default play ought to be to fold one-pair hands to big action. I'm just qualifying it a bit.

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jackvance

08-07-2006, 02:14 AM

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Join Date: Mar 2006

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Miffed22001

08-07-2006, 03:10 AM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

having played on a lot of sites, i think it is highly dependant on the game you are playing, to stack off with tp/tk(gk)

I do it constantly at tribeca, to a large extent in prima games yet in a stars game even at 50nl i would be MUCH more selective.

And thats before we get into the scenarios/math or the wheres and whens and whys etc concerning the stacking off of a one pair hand.

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