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Took a shot at 50NL, did I play AQs correctly?

  
 
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kb coolman
Old 12-11-2008, 12:41 AM     Post subject: Took a shot at 50NL, did I play AQs correctly? #1 (permalink)  
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I've only been at the table for about 20 hands or so, and it's playing pretty tight, with exception of the button (he's 47/18, likes to c-bet EVERY flop). Everyone else is pretty standard, more or less. I have yet to see a show down at this table.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($28.15)
UTG ($31)
Hero (UTG+1) ($40.50)
MP1 ($10.75)
MP2 ($25.45)
MP3 ($8.80)
CO ($21.40)
Button ($82.25)
SB ($16.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 5 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50

AQs from early position, and I have a tight image so far. I was pretty sure I'd get called by the button, and was surprised when both blinds called.

Flop: ($6) 2, 7, 10 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $3, Hero calls $3, 1 fold

What I'm really looking at is the flop, and hitting the nut FD. Pot is $6 on the flop, SB bets 1/2 pot. How do I calculate the correct odds to call here, and how do implied odds come into play?

Turn: ($12) Q (2 players)
BB bets $6, Hero calls $6

I'm not laying down TPTK here with the nut FD for a 1/2 pot bet, even though I think the villan may be on two pair, a set, or (hopefully) the weaker draw.

River: ($24) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $5

This is NOT the card I wanted to see, fearing villan flopped the set and my flush is no good. The comparably weak bet here tells me I've got him beat, or he out played me.

Total pot: $44 | Rake: $2.20

Overall, how'd I do?
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mieczkowusc
Old 12-11-2008, 12:59 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I think you could have done a few things differently, but this is just my opinion and definitely not necessarily the best advice because I don't play 50NL.

On the flop, I think you have enough equity to throw in a raise. The hands we are worried about are 22, 77 and TT, but I would be less worried about a two-pair type hand, especially if it is a tight table. If they are calling with 7-2, 10-2, or 10-7 i feel like you would have seen a lot more action in 20 hands from people. If they check the turn, you have a chance to take a free card or bet. Against a set, you have a decent amount of outs.

I don't know if a turn raise here is +EV or not, but I am inclined to say that raising is the right play.


EDIT: Misread you post. Thought you said that the weak bet on the river meant that he had you beat, instead of vice versa

What range would you put the villain on?
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-11-2008, 01:04 AM #3 (permalink)  
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is it bad that i laughed at the river play and subsequent analysis?

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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mieczkowusc
Old 12-11-2008, 01:17 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Depends if you are laughing at me, kb, or both of us at the same time

Just doin the best I can 'rilla.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-11-2008, 01:22 AM #5 (permalink)  
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if it helps, i didn't read your post.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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kb coolman
Old 12-11-2008, 01:22 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
is it bad that i laughed at the river play and subsequent analysis?
Probably not, but why?
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-11-2008, 01:35 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I just can't reconcile the idea that one one hand you think his line means he has a set and now a full house, and on the other you feel that this card means you must raise. Are you raise/folding?

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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kb coolman
Old 12-11-2008, 01:44 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Yeah, I see what you mean. Let me clarify.

1) His betting makes me think he may a set and doesn't want to scare me off the pot.
2) When I see the 7 on the river, my first though is CRAP!! Did he just hit a boat? The whole 'monsters under the bed' mentality....but I'm not about to go weak-tight here.
3) Weak river bet makes me think he didn't hit his boat, so I raise hoping he's not slow playing me.

But what I'm really wanting to understand is the rights odds to call on the flop with two overs and a FD.
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killerkebab
Old 12-11-2008, 02:02 AM #9 (permalink)  
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You were the preflop agressor and your villain donk bets half the pot into you.

As you so correctly said you have two overs and a flush. Raise this flop to build a pot for your flush draw. It also allows you to take control of the hand on the turn, since villain is more likely to check to you (assuming he calls your raise )

I don't like the minraise on the river. What are you hoping for? If he has a boat he's shoving, if he doesn't have much of a hand he's folding. All in all, it gives you nothing.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-11-2008, 02:19 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kb coolman
Yeah, I see what you mean. Let me clarify.

1) His betting makes me think he may a set and doesn't want to scare me off the pot.
2) When I see the 7 on the river, my first though is CRAP!! Did he just hit a boat? The whole 'monsters under the bed' mentality....but I'm not about to go weak-tight here.
3) Weak river bet makes me think he didn't hit his boat, so I raise hoping he's not slow playing me.

But what I'm really wanting to understand is the rights odds to call on the flop with two overs and a FD.
your raise sizing sucks real bad too. You're worrying about a few cents in equity on your flop decision vrs a fist full of dollars on the river.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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kb coolman
Old 12-11-2008, 02:19 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by killerkebab
I don't like the minraise on the river. What are you hoping for? If he has a boat he's shoving, if he doesn't have much of a hand he's folding. All in all, it gives you nothing.
When he bet $5 on the river, I was thinking he got coolered by the 3rd diamond. I was hoping the minraise would be in his range to call with a weaker hand. I'm not sure what I would have done with a shove here.

FWIW, I contemplated just calling the river to look him up.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-11-2008, 02:22 AM #12 (permalink)  
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I just can't fathom thinking I'm beat enough to just flat on the river. Try to crack his mindset. Pretend you're him, what hands are you donking half pot on the flop and leading half pot on the turn?

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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killerkebab
Old 12-11-2008, 02:23 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kb coolman
Quote:
Originally Posted by killerkebab
I don't like the minraise on the river. What are you hoping for? If he has a boat he's shoving, if he doesn't have much of a hand he's folding. All in all, it gives you nothing.
When he bet $5 on the river, I was thinking he got coolered by the 3rd diamond. I was hoping the minraise would be in his range to call with a weaker hand.
What weaker hands donk the flop, bet the turn, bet small on the river, and still call a minraise here?
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poker_pup
Old 12-11-2008, 03:25 AM #14 (permalink)  
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I'm not good with odds, but I think you played the hand fine.
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poker_pup
Old 12-11-2008, 03:29 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Maybe you should have raised on the turn.
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kb coolman
Old 12-11-2008, 03:42 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Pretend you're him, what hands are you donking half pot on the flop and leading half pot on the turn?
Quote:
Originally Posted by killerkebab
What weaker hands donk the flop, bet the turn, bet small on the river, and still call a minraise here?
To break it down by street:

1) Flop could be air, set, overs, TP, or building a pot on the draw. After thinking about, I don't see two pair on this board calling my PF raise.
2) Turn could be double barrelled, or any of the above. I don't think he improved here.
3) I read this bet as a cooler on the river. I figured maybe he had AA/KK, ruled out QQ and the boat. In any case, I felt I definately had the better hand, and did not think he would call a stronger raise. It's also low risk for me here with the minraise, cause I figure he's gonna 3bet hard if he can beat the flush.
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Old 12-11-2008, 03:45 AM #17 (permalink)  
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villain can have a ten, a queen, a lower flush, probably not trips but it could happen

I'd stack off on the river because there is no way he's laying his flush down
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kb coolman
Old 12-11-2008, 03:47 AM #18 (permalink)  
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I just don't see the stack off working on the river, given how he bet compared to previous streets.
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Robb
Old 12-11-2008, 03:53 AM #19 (permalink)  
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 I don't get the turn. Why not raise?
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gingerwizard
Old 12-11-2008, 07:55 AM #20 (permalink)  
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gingerwizard is an unknown quantity at this point
 Note: I've only read the OP.

I raise on the flop, cos I really like it. I also raise the turn which probably gets me all in, but if not it goes in on the river.

If he had a set nh wp. I think your line is too passive. Being aggressive with nut draws is usually the way to go. (If I remember my 50NL days well enough)
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LuckySlevin
Old 12-11-2008, 12:01 PM #21 (permalink)  
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 Well he's called from the blinds so I think unless you know otherwise you have to give him some credit for that.

If you put him on JJ-TT,77, you only have about 40% equity on the flop. By the turn even on that ranging you have the best of it with almost 60% equity. So I'd say a raise would be better on turn, and he re-raises put him all in. Given that you've called every street before the river I think he's likely to take a stab at the pot if you miss your flush then what do you do? So I think a raise on the turn would be the best play. Be interested if others think this is a bad / good idea.
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Sabr1988
Old 12-11-2008, 12:04 PM #22 (permalink)  
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I would say you played it good, maybe i would reraised him with a couple of more bucks at the river, but very well played.

If you reraised him on the Q, he would probably fold, and yea, i think it's well played, would have done allmost the same.
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Sabr1988
Old 12-11-2008, 12:09 PM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckySlevin
Well he's called from the blinds so I think unless you know otherwise you have to give him some credit for that.

If you put him on JJ-TT,77, you only have about 40% equity on the flop. By the turn even on that ranging you have the best of it with almost 60% equity. So I'd say a raise would be better on turn, and he re-raises put him all in. Given that you've called every street before the river I think he's likely to take a stab at the pot if you miss your flush then what do you do? So I think a raise on the turn would be the best play. Be interested if others think this is a bad / good idea.
Just my opinion, but i think if a raise on the turn showed up, he probably would have folded..

its online poker.....lol
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Erpel
Old 12-11-2008, 12:39 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Villain flop range imo: KdJd, Kd9d, Jd9d, 98s, 9d7d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 6d5d, A7s, 88-99, ATs-T9s
Discounted hands: Any set (would bet bigger or slowplay), the bigger TPTK, TPGK hands (would bet bigger), any overpair (pre-flop 3bet and would bet bigger), two pair (doesn't fit pre-flop action)

Flop action: Call is perfect

Turn range imo: Same, except additional discounts for all already discounted hands and new discounts for 88-99, 7x and Tx hands. Only one hand improved - QTs.

Colour me simplistic, but I'm seeing flush draws in villain range more than anything else.

Turn action: Villain has $17.15 behind and if called the pot is $24. I think we're ahead almost always and the only cards I'm afraid to see on the river are non-diamond jacks and sixes - and even on those cards I'm willing to go all-in. If we raise here we're giving an opportunity for the villain to fold hands that might call some rivers. The pot is big enough relative to the stacks that I feel comfortable calling here with the intent of getting all in on pretty much any river. I wouldn't push the point on any non-diamond jack or six, but I'd call any non-diamond jack or six and shove any other card.

River: This is EXACTLY the card I want to see. I've never thought a set particularly likely so I'm not concerned about a full house, and the weak lead pretty much confirms that to me. I now think I'm looking at a weaker flush, trip sevens or two-pair hand (all of which calling shoves) and I'm all-in.
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