Originally Posted by Sasquach991

Only 8BIs but I figured anything more and I'd get money scared which I did at about $470.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

If I had to guess I'd say 10-15% of the poker playing population has enough success in their first attempt to move up to stay at the higher level.

Learn from the experience and you'll be better for it.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

If I had to guess I'd say 10-15% of the poker playing population has enough success in their first attempt to move up to stay at the higher level.

Learn from the experience and you'll be better for it.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

....
However, a lot of it just boils down to running good/bad. How many times have you moved up and in the first 2k hands run KK into AA or had a set lose to a flush draw or have someone flop a big hand in a 3bet pot?

Originally Posted by Sasquach991

Above is exactly what happened.

My 3bet AA or KK got setted with small pp many times. I did not win any pots with AA or KK unless they all folded pf. I got one flopped set in 3500 hands.

I had planned to move up at $750 but I was running 20bb/100 hands so I figured I'd go for it.

I will wait until $750 or more the next time.

Originally Posted by okiman

Part of this isn't running bad though and was my problem when I first moved to 25nl too. 3betting AA or KK preflop with deep stacks still gives your opponents the correct odds to set hunt if they know you'll pay them off with your entire stack when they hit. I went on a downswing my first 1,000 hands @ 25nl because I didn't check behind on the turn when in position with tptk or an overpair and I had already given away the strength of my hand. I was winning a lot of small pots with AA, KK, QQ, AK (when the set didn't come or everyone folded preflop) and losing some big ones (when the the opponent did hit his set). Pot control is an important asset. Review your entire 25nl stint and learn as much as you can from it. See if this was a big problem for you too.

Now the one set in 3,500 hands is just variance. That will turn around and will give you many profitable spots to get your bankroll back.

Originally Posted by Jason

I guess different folks, different strokes, but in my opinion, you are never "due" in poker. You cannot use the past to predict the future as far as probability is concerned. Variance is always variance. It can seem random, seem like an upswing, seem like a downswing, or whatever shape you think it looks like in the past, but that characterization has no bearing on the future - your play might, but luck does not.

Also, for any player who thinks making an extra hundred @ 10NL is a lot of work, then maybe that player isn't ready to move up. That's the thing about level jumping: if you are actually beating a level and ready to move up, winning 10 buy-ins should not seem like a big deal. If it DOES seem like a big deal, then you have to question if you're really beating the level. If there is a hint of emotional hurdle from trying to win 10 buy-ins @ $10NL, how will that same player react after dropping just 4 buy-ins @ $25NL (aka 10 buy-ins @ $10NL)?

I guess this does relate to another idea we may have been skirting around. I've been advocating moving up when a player has 30 buy-ins or more, but that's not entirely true. I think you ALSO need to have a reasonably good win rate of at least 4bb/100 or 2ptBB/100 and preferably more. Because technically if you're just slightly a winner and it takes you a year or more playing tens of thousands of hands to get the bankroll to move up, then you're probably destined to fail if you move up. I think there should be a familiarity, comfort, and confidence based on real past results that you can beat the level you're @ BEFORE you move up. If you're lacking that confidence and ability and ESPECIALLY if you're lacking the bankroll to go with it, success will be a major dog when you move up.