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Too optimistic with AQo?

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laivu6

07-27-2006, 03:28 PM Post subject: Too optimistic with AQo?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2006

Posts: 36

Hi, i'm new both at poker (10 days of real money play) and here (reading for about a month now)

I was actually quite confident when i played this hand. But now after some thinking i'm not.

Reads: UTG is 76/22/0.8 over 46 hands, playing any face card. UTG+1 is unknown, it was his 1st hand at a table.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($5.14)
BB ($3.98)
UTG ($3.63)
UTG+1 ($5)
MP1 ($9.81)
Hero ($5.89)
CO ($4.74)
Button ($4.94)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q

, A

. SB posts a blind of $0.02. UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.04.
UTG calls $0.04, UTG+1 (poster) raises to $0.13, 1 fold,

Thoughts: OK, that wasn't a big raise, i have a position on him, but i'm in MP so i just call

Hero calls $0.17, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.13.

Flop: ($0.57) K

, 9

, 4

(3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks

Thoughts: 2 checks... No K? I want to test them, i'm not very happy about my hand right now

Hero bets $0.3, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30.

Turn: ($1.17) 4

(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.45

Thoughts: a pair and a small bet. Still not sure where i am. I've decided to raise and fold if he 3-bet

Hero raises to $1, UTG+1 calls $0.55.

River: ($3.17) A

(2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero???

Thoughts: after his call on turn i was pretty sure i'm done with the hand. But with an ace on the river... I don't think i'm against AA or KK here. AK and 99 are possible (even A9 i think), but i'm ahead of much more hands he could have here. Or am i not?

So, should i bet? If yes, then how much?

And, more important, what about turn? Fold to a bet against an unknown?

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jackvance

07-27-2006, 03:43 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 2,910

jackvance is an unknown quantity at this point

Turn: all you have is a board pair, so basically you have A-high. I really don't understand how this warrants a min-raise?

River: lucky river, you're probably ahead now, so I'd value bet something like $1-$2.

Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity

biondino

07-27-2006, 03:43 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2005

Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars

Posts: 3,170

Yes, I would fold the turn. He has something, you don't, so your only hope is a bluff, but even this is only likely to work if he has x9. Assuming he doesn't have a 4 (and he could have, he's repping one), you only have 8 outs; if he does have one you're drawing dead.

I hate rivers like this. You are only ahead if he has slowplayed a pair of kings, basically, which is certainly possible at this level. But he could have AK (considering his PF raise), A4 or K9 (if he's a donk), 44 (though I doubt it), even AA. I suspect I would check behind here - you're beaten maybe 60% of the time?

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