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Thoughts on sessions.

  
 
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jyms
Old 02-21-2007, 03:27 PM     Post subject: Thoughts on sessions. #1 (permalink)  
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 So I haven't seen this anywhere, on any site and it's one of those things that has been picking at me for some time.

We all know the odds of starting hands. If anybody needs to find out this information it's all in the Poker Strategy link at the top of the page. I'd like to take it another step. This is about expectations of what is considered running well. We all know that, or should know that, you get a pocket pair (PP) 5.9% of the time, and AA or KK or any other individual PP 0.45% of the time, and you "flop" a set or quads, 11.8% of the time that you have a PP.

So why am I telling you this? I'm not, what I was wondering is some of the math involved in a session, since I seem to think (everybody seems to think) I never hit as many sets as the next guy. I never get as many AA's or KK's as the next guy. Well, I found out why.

Assuming you play a 1K hand session, my usual since this is about me, I would get dealt 1000 hands over 4 tables. So when we look at the odds we know, and add the amount of hands we know, this is what I found out to my total disbelief.

1000 hands = 59 pocket pairs
59 PP = 4.5 of each AA, KK and 22
59 PP = 7 sets
1000 hands = 250 BB in blinds, 2 1/2 stacks @ 6 max
1000 hands = 166.6 BB in blinds 1 2/3 stacks @ 9 FR

So what can we do with this information? Nothing. But you can tell a little about your session. Never, and I mean never, have I ever realized that I'm only supposed to get an average of 7 sets in a night of 1K hands. Take this and start putting together some thoughts about your session as well. AA and/or KK for a total of 9 times. I have news for ya, they are going to get cracked. Depending on the hand villain has, you will get cracked probably once a night or more and for most of us in the micro stakes, for a full stack.

I'm not the best one to put math or numbers to a post, and I'm sure others could add more detail and insite. Yes it's only 1K hands, and yes I understand that in a short session like this I could get AA 11 times or sets 3 times. But in the larger scheme of things, keep in mind, it comes around, and keep your expectations where they should be.
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donkbee
Old 02-21-2007, 07:58 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 this is a really interesting post. people don't don't really THINK about things like this, but they sure as hell like complaining about them, lol.



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Tjorriemorrie
Old 02-22-2007, 06:00 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by courtiebee
this is a really interesting post. people don't don't really THINK about things like this, but they sure as hell like complaining about them, lol.
True, lol

This is interesting. I think I'm gonna look at this tonight as well.
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Anosmic
Old 02-22-2007, 11:51 AM #4 (permalink)  
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It can be useful to know where you are really card dead or whether you just feel like it.

Obviously your "7 sets per session" number is little off because it assumes all your PPs see a flop. It'll more likely be 2-3 flopped sets; depending on opponents, but then there's sets made on later streets as a balance.

Obviously this is +/- so hard to say from 1k hands...


And you don't flop quads 11% of the time you have a PP. Typo?
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Tjorriemorrie
Old 02-22-2007, 12:05 PM #5 (permalink)  
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where do you see quads 11% of the time? im not reading it

wow, you put in long sessions. if i fourtable i should get that in 4 hours...u single right?
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Renton
Old 02-22-2007, 12:17 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 this i all very interesting but don't forget that a lot of flops go unseen
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jyms
Old 02-22-2007, 12:29 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 As for the flopping quads, the odds of flopping a set or quads to your PP is 11.8%, meaning one or the other. obviously you will not flop quads 11.8% of the time.

As for most of the points I make, I didn't disclaimer the fact that this would be a typical $10NL, 25NL or even a $50NL session. I would hazard a guess that of the 59 PP averages, 50 or more see the flop. I do understand that you will hit sets on other streets, but in the micro stakes your basically thinking, set it or forget it with most PP's postflop.

This session usually takes about 2.5/3 hours of 4 tables. Most tables run about 80 or so hands an hour at 6 max. So in that time I can play usually 200+ hands per table.

And no I'm not single, I have a wife, 3 year old boy an a full time job. I play about 50K hands a month. That is another thread.
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gingerwizard
Old 02-22-2007, 12:36 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Nice thinking Trainer!

What you need to do now is figure out what this information means for your game. How much you need to win in expectation on the set hands and with the AA,KK to be winning relative to the blinds. Then you can incorporate some extra things to your game:

e.g., Imagine you stole the blinds 1 in 3 orbits. Now you've made about half a stack per session.

You can look at all your plays in this way and work out what you need to do to stay ahead in expectation. E.g., playing SCs and such. Stay ahead in expectation and incorporate a few moves (that themselves have +EV) and you'll crush your limit.

I am having problems getting my game together at the moment, but i feel it's coming slowly.
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uscheese
Old 02-22-2007, 02:28 PM #9 (permalink)  
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And I scratch my head when I play one sit and go and don't get dealt above pocket 7's. This puts stuff into perspective...good post jyms.
 
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euphoricism
Old 03-18-2007, 05:24 AM #10 (permalink)  
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So trainer and I just did some more thinking...

Out of my last 30kish hands at absolute 25NL, I had 2002 total pocket pairs. Exactly 425 did NOT see a flop. This works out to 22.5% of pocket pairs do not see a flop, or one out of every five.

This unscientific study (because its effected by a few things we cant really quantify -- like game and seat selection) shows a good ball park figure of 45 pocket pairs seeing the flop in a 1000 hand session, which correlates to about 5 flopped sets per 1000 hands.

You're welcome.

Note: This still *sounds* really high to me. Though I guess we only expect to get paid on a flop set around 1/5th of the time...

Note #2: I averaged 60.66667 pocket pairs per 1k hands. Just about exactly whats to be expected.
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donkbee
Old 03-18-2007, 07:48 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 I should sticky this thread.



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Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
 
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bigspenda73
Old 03-18-2007, 08:08 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 While the thread is valid I really don't get this total usefullness for it. Basically TJ and Euph have put into writing what the math already tells us. Am I missing some key breakthrough point here? Shouldn't this be stickied in the bad beat forum?

Yes, the math tells us we will get dealt Aces approx 4.5 times in a 1k hand session. Yes, the math tells us against a random PP our aces hold an 80% equity. Yes, this means if we see all 5 cards against 5 opponents holding a pocket pair against our AA we should expect to win 4 of the 5 occurrences.
It's late, maybe I'm missing a key point besides the explanation of variance in a 1k hand session.
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euphoricism
Old 03-18-2007, 08:30 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Explanations of variance in a 1k session are fairly worthwhile in the beginners forum, but thats not what we're talking about.

This is much more useful in a "how do I tell if I'm running bad?" way. Mostly, I'd just never seen nor bothered to look for the math until this afternoon's painful session. So I asked TJ if he knew how many sets we were expected to hit in a given 1k sample and he pointed me here.

Nothing earth shattering, but informative nonetheless.

And it had next-to-nothing to do with AA...
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donkbee
Old 03-18-2007, 08:45 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
So I asked TJ if he knew how many sets we were expected to hit in a given 1k sample and he pointed me here.
Case in point. I want to sticky it because I want to be able to quickly link someone complaining about not hitting enough sets really quickly when it's asked (or when something similar is asked). This kind of stuff is asked pretty damn often in this forum.



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Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.
 
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Renton
Old 03-18-2007, 10:43 AM #15 (permalink)  
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 lol if your problem is u aren't hitting enough sets then you have very minor problems.

My current problem is a combination of "Why am I getting stacked every time I have a set" and "Why am I losing with sets in reraised pots".
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Irisheyes
Old 03-18-2007, 02:13 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton

My current problem is a combination of "Why am I getting stacked every time I have a set" and "Why am I losing with sets in reraised pots".
Then this applies to you because if you hit less sets you would have more money.
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Chopper
Old 03-18-2007, 03:43 PM #17 (permalink)  
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dont know what i can add here, but the fact that people here at FTR dont think this way, blows my friggin' mind. you guys are easily this smart (hell, most of you are WAY smarter than i am truth be told)...with all the "theory" and "variance" talk i've seen here.

the easiest way to check your numbers, imo, is to look through PT and select "all dates." then, look at each pp you have been dealt in relation to your total hands played. you should see a specific pp 1:220 times, roughly.

in the early stages, like >10k hands, you will see some serious variance to the numbers of TT you have been dealt in relation to 33, or AA. some will be a lot more frequent than the 1:220, and some will be strikingly less frequent.

however, if you have over 50k hands, look at how they start to balance out.

yes, AA gets cracked. sometimes 2 or 3 times in a row (i, personally, had them cracked over on the cryptos 5 times in a row in ONE day, and 6 out of 7 over two days...variance, anyone? i still dont think anyone believes me when i tell them this.). but, then, it holds for like a week it seems, too. nothing earth-shattering in the math. i am just surprised to see some of you guys dont think this way. i still think you guys do, just never put the actual math to it.

once you look at the "balance" of the numbers over the longer haul, its laughable to read the noobs' posts about "rigged" sites.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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bigspenda73
Old 03-18-2007, 03:53 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 Whenever I wanna bitch I think about the 2 biggest pots I've ever won.

First pot: A 3 way full stack pot with 88 on an 7K787 board both opponents holding AK calling a near full stack push on the river.

Second pot: A HU 200bb effective stack pot with 77 on a 23567 board against a maniac who woke up with AA and potted each street until I pushed over his river bet.

Sure, you get bad beaten but I try to remember the good one's as well.
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Chopper
Old 03-19-2007, 02:25 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Whenever I wanna bitch I think about the 2 biggest pots I've ever won.

First pot: A 3 way full stack pot with 88 on an 7K787 board both opponents holding AK calling a near full stack push on the river.

Second pot: A HU 200bb effective stack pot with 77 on a 23567 board against a maniac who woke up with AA and potted each street until I pushed over his river bet.

Sure, you get bad beaten but I try to remember the good one's as well.
and which site was that? i will laugh if i "have a correct read" on your answer, unless its the old party.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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