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Originally Posted by seven-deuce
It folds to a 22/19 with a 35% ats. Villain opens for 3bb, SB folds, and the action's on Heroin the BB. How would you play your range here?
My attempt at seeing whether 3bet bluffing will be profitable vs Villain.
Villains pre- flop range: 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o
Total 462 combos ~ 35% of hands.
If Hero 3bets to 10bb villain has to continue with 34% to avoid being exploited.
If villain continues with: TT+, ATs+, A5s-A2s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AQo+, KQo
Then he's continuing only 0.246 or ~25% of the time and folding the remaining 75%. Does this seem reasonable? Would we not be able to exploit a villain with 35% ats very easily then?
So once we figure out that we can gain an advantage on someone by 3bet bluffing, how do we figure out what our 3bet bluffing frequency should be in relation to our 3bet for value range?
So would 3betting JJ+ AK for value and some 3bet bluffs be a decent strategy ( I don't know how to get an estimate of how many). Then stack off with like KK+ only.
Sorry for the disorganised post.
I would like to have a stab at forming a range to 3bet bluff with. I think an important factor would be how regularly you had been 3bet bluffing into villain in the past, it probably isn't a good idea to do it for the fourth time in a row unless you have hit a hand you are 3betting for value.
My understanding is that:
EV of Semi-Bluffing = (fold %)(pot size) + (call %)(our equity)(pot + bet size) + (call%)(villain’s equity)(-bet size). So I will use an example from 2NL because its the easiest numbers for someone who is bad at maths like me to work with. If villain is folding 75% of the time to a 3bet:
EV = (75%)($0.09) + (25%)(Equity)($0.29) + (25%)(Villain's Equity)(-$0.20)
I think ideally, the bluffing range needs to be wide enough to exploit villain's high folding frequency, but tight enough that we have some equity if he calls. To be honest, because the range in which he continues to a 3bet is so low, I think its possible to 3bet pretty damn wide into this opponent and for it to remain +EV. But after playing around in equilab for a while, a range like {TT-77,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,AQo-ATo,KJo+,QJo} looks pretty nice to 3bet bluff with, because although it is fairly wide it holds about 41% equity against his continuing range of {TT+, ATs+, A5s-A2s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AQo+, KQo}.
Please spoony or one of the more experienced players pick this post apart.
EDIT: I just realised its probably better to be calling with some of these hands then 3betting. So in conclusion, I'm a donk
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