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things to consider when making a decision
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nish81
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06-24-2009, 08:48 PM
Post subject: things to consider when making a decision
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 295
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so sometimes I look back on a hand I've played, and get a sense that I was half groping around in the dark with a couple of perhaps key decisions. so I decided to try and make a list of things that I should be looking at when making a decision in poker - i.e. whether to call/fold/raise villains bet, etc. some situations, like when I've raised preflop and it's HU on the flop, are generally an automatic c-bet to me, but a lot of the time i seem to be forgetting to do one or more of these things 
- look at villain reads/stats that are relevant to the decision
- look at villain's actions on previous streets and put him on a range, figure my equity against this range
- look at pot/implied odds if i'm trying to decide whether to call a bet or not
- if I bet or raise, will worse hands call? will better hands fold?
- what's the board texture like? what's my relative hand/draw strength?
I'm pretty sure there's a lot of routine things that are missing from this list, which I should also be doing everytime i'm faced with a decision. if any of you veterans would be inclined to add anything to this list of mine [/list]
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<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.
JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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R- Range
E - Equity
M- Maximize
This is from PNL, and is a simple thing to consider when faced with a situtation/decision.
So say you are in the situation where you raised preflop and got called. You are now in a HU pot OOP. Consider your possible actions.
Well you can bet or check. And each action can be broken down into a particular line, and reason. We can bet for value, folding to a raise. We can bet as a bluff, folding to a raise. We can check, intending to call a bet. We can check, intending to fold. We can check, intending to raise, etc, and so on.
What needs to be considered in order to determine the best possible action? Well that's where villain's range, and your equity against said range, reads/stats/tendencies come into play.
We know it's +EV to value bet when we have >50% equity against villains calling range. Generally this is the first option I consider. It makes sense that if we can bet and get calls from worse often enough, then it's usually the best option because we are building a pot with the best of it, meaning that more money goes in with us as the favorite.
If we can't bet for value, then I consider a check, and what would happen if I check. Say we check, and villain bets. Will we have the needed equity against his range to profitably call? This is based off of pot odds, and villain's betting range. This is like when we have a somewhat marginal hand with showdown value.
Say we can't valuebet, or check/call profitably. Then I would consider betting for a bluff. That is we expect villain to fold better hands often enough to be +EV. This is once again based off of the concept of pot odds, and range analysis. This is why we usually c-bet a fair amount of our air hands on the flop, because in a lot of spots villains miss the flop often enough for a bet to be profitable.
So that covers our basic first decisions here. When we check, and villain takes his action, we then are faced with another decision, in which we must once again consider our options. We can call because we have the needed equity against his range. We can fold because we don't. Or we can raise because either (1) we have enough equity to c/r for value (2) or we feel villain will fold often enough to be profitable.
This is potential actions without consider preflop actions or villain's tendencies. And if you have read Renton's ABCD theorem article, this is kinda the thought process used to formulate those ABCD subranges (imo). However, that doesn't always mean that you bet if you have >50% equity against villains calling range, etc. Instead, villain's tendencies, and previous action should help you make those decisions.
For instance, say we call a raise from a tight player OOP with 99. The flop comes A97tt, giving us middle set in a HU pot OOP. Well, we obviously have >50% equity against villain's calling range, so does that mean we should automatically donk bet the flop for value? Not necessarily. This is a spot where villain will be a spot where most villain's will be cbetting fairly often. And if that's the case, we likely benefit more from either check/calling or check/raising villain's cbet. This is because he is going to bet a wider range when checked to than he is going to call if you bet. Villain's tendency to cbet often coupled with his preflop action of being the aggressor makes our flop check fairly trivial. Depending on his range we can then either check/raise or check/call accordingly.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
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To add to my last thoughts about ABCD theorem and villain's tendencies. Say we can formulate our ABCD ranges for a particular flop after calling a raise OOP, not accounting for any of villain's tendencies. Say we know that villain c-bets very often when checked to. Then it stands to reason that we can expand our B range (check/calling range) in this instance because he is betting a wider and weaker range. Whereas, if he had a low cbet % when checked to, that B range would need to become more narrow because he isn't betting as wide of a range when checked to.
The same goes for if villain is cbetting very often, and is also stacking off relatively lightly. Then we can expand our A range (nut hand range. Hands we try to get a lot of money into the pot with), because he is stacking off lightly. If he is cbetting often, but isn't stacking off lightly, when shrink our A range, but keep our B range wide. So on and so forth, etc yada yada.
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
R- Range
E - Equity
M- Maximize
This is from PNL, and is a simple thing to consider when faced with a situtation/decision.
So say you are in the situation where you raised preflop and got called. You are now in a HU pot OOP. Consider your possible actions.
Well you can bet or check. And each action can be broken down into a particular line, and reason. We can bet for value, folding to a raise. We can bet as a bluff, folding to a raise. We can check, intending to call a bet. We can check, intending to fold. We can check, intending to raise, etc, and so on.
What needs to be considered in order to determine the best possible action? Well that's where villain's range, and your equity against said range, reads/stats/tendencies come into play.
We know it's +EV to value bet when we have >50% equity against villains calling range. Generally this is the first option I consider. It makes sense that if we can bet and get calls from worse often enough, then it's usually the best option because we are building a pot with the best of it, meaning that more money goes in with us as the favorite.
If we can't bet for value, then I consider a check, and what would happen if I check. Say we check, and villain bets. Will we have the needed equity against his range to profitably call? This is based off of pot odds, and villain's betting range. This is like when we have a somewhat marginal hand with showdown value.
Say we can't valuebet, or check/call profitably. Then I would consider betting for a bluff. That is we expect villain to fold better hands often enough to be +EV. This is once again based off of the concept of pot odds, and range analysis. This is why we usually c-bet a fair amount of our air hands on the flop, because in a lot of spots villains miss the flop often enough for a bet to be profitable.
So that covers our basic first decisions here. When we check, and villain takes his action, we then are faced with another decision, in which we must once again consider our options. We can call because we have the needed equity against his range. We can fold because we don't. Or we can raise because either (1) we have enough equity to c/r for value (2) or we feel villain will fold often enough to be profitable.
This is potential actions without consider preflop actions or villain's tendencies. And if you have read Renton's ABCD theorem article, this is kinda the thought process used to formulate those ABCD subranges (imo). However, that doesn't always mean that you bet if you have >50% equity against villains calling range, etc. Instead, villain's tendencies, and previous action should help you make those decisions.
For instance, say we call a raise from a tight player OOP with 99. The flop comes A97tt, giving us middle set in a HU pot OOP. Well, we obviously have >50% equity against villain's calling range, so does that mean we should automatically donk bet the flop for value? Not necessarily. This is a spot where villain will be a spot where most villain's will be cbetting fairly often. And if that's the case, we likely benefit more from either check/calling or check/raising villain's cbet. This is because he is going to bet a wider range when checked to than he is going to call if you bet. Villain's tendency to cbet often coupled with his preflop action of being the aggressor makes our flop check fairly trivial. Depending on his range we can then either check/raise or check/call accordingly.
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now you know how to play poker. gl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas. 
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nish81
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 295
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So I read this and it makes sense to me. With any given decision, your hand falls into one of four ranges, and you have different goals for each range and play each range differently.
But then I went and read the original renton ABCD theorem thread, and got confused - particularly with this example:
Quote:
Example 2:
Seat 1: AmPHisbaenA ($414.25 in chips)
Seat 2: gl79 ($402.60 in chips)
Seat 3: Tnx4urMoney ($456.10 in chips)
Seat 4: Kodack ($186 in chips)
Seat 5: 69MadMike69 ($53.70 in chips)
Seat 6: jhndh541 ($106.05 in chips)
Seat 7: Renton555 ($524.60 in chips)
Seat 8: jfager007 ($394 in chips)
Seat 9: whaaatever ($253 in chips)
gl79: posts small blind $2
Tnx4urMoney: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Renton555 [9d 9c]
Kodack: folds
69MadMike69: folds
jhndh541: folds
Renton555: raises $8 to $12
jfager007: folds
whaaatever: calls $12
AmPHisbaenA: folds
gl79: folds
Tnx4urMoney: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ac 8s Jd]
Renton555: checks
whaaatever: bets $24
Renton555: folds
In this hand, betting the flop is absolutely certainly profitable, as this flop bitchslaps our range and he has to fold the vast majority of his. Betting may even be best. However, checking is profitable with 99, since he likely checks down worse pairs.
Without going too deep into this, let me create the subranges.
A = {AJ, A8, AA, JJ, 88, AK, AQ, T9} Hands we bet and continue to a raise.
B = {A2-AT, QQ-KK, Jx} Hands we check call for pot control and deception.
C = {77, 99, TT, 87ish} Hands we check fold for showdown value.
D = {air} Hands we bet as a bluff.
Even though betting 99 is profitable and maybe best, we prefer to bet all our air and try to check down 99, and hence have a less exploitable cbet.
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Is he saying that it's better to check 99 because it's better to take it all the way to the showdown rather than just c-betting with it? But then he says that we'd check/fold 99, and it's part of the C range which shouldnt see too much action, so we wont be getting a much bigger pot anyways. Hence isn't it just better to c-bet with it anyways, with the slim chance that we could win if he floats us? And check/fold the D range, which has no such slim chance.
He even states that 'betting is almost certainly profitable' here, which confuses me - is he saying that betting is profitable but check/folding is more profitable? How does that work?
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<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.
JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
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knaplek
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 78
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He's saying that betting is the most profitable line here but there is some value in checking, because sometimes the pot will be checked down and 99 will be good. He's then hypothesising that if you always bet in this spot you will become very exploitable, therefore you should check some hands. Since 99 still has some value when checked whereas your total air only has value when you bet it, you lose less value by checking 99 than total air, and should therefore be more inclined to check your weak made hands.
Another way of looking at it: The statement "betting is almost certainly profitable here" is making the assumption your opponent is making a mistake by folding to your c-bets too much. While you want to exploit this mistake by c-betting, if you always c-bet then he will probably re-adjust, thus making him harder to exploit. Therefore you pass up a small value edge you would have had in betting your 99 in order to maintain the idea in his head that you're not just betting every flop, thus allowing you to exloit a larger value edge in betting your air in a future spot.
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nish81
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 295
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Ah i get it - so he's going by the assumption that we shouldn't c-bet all the time because it'll make us too easily readable, and then showing that the best part of the range to discard - if we have to discard one - is the C subrange because it has more value than the D range. got it
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<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.
JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
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knaplek
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 78
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Exactly
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Pretty much what Knaplek said. If we are cbetting hands like 99/TT here, then our cbet becomes a bit exploitable as we are weakening our cbet range, and check/folding the turn even more often with hands that had value in checking. However, when we check 99/TT type hands here, villain's ranges will also be broken down into subranges, in which he will likely bet his nut hands, and his air hands, and also check back his marginal hands. And against that marginal range, our 99/TT range performs fairly well, and therefore we have value in trying to get to showdown with those hands. Rather than c-betting and (1) manipulating his range to either folding our worse hands or calling with better hands, making it almost impossible for us to win a showdown when called, and (2) having very little equity when our cbet is called (as we will have like 3 outs [sets + bd straight draws]).
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nish81
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 295
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I understand this better now, but I have another question. You mentioned that after we check, the opponents range will be broken down into subranges. But I'm at 2nl - what if opponents here dont really know of or follow this theory? For example, before I understood this, I would have c-bet 99 in a heads up flop but folded total air - say my 2nl opponent thinks the same, and c-bets a marginal hand with some showdown value. I might interpret it as him playing an A range hand, and fold my hand, because I think he follows these ranges too, which he doesn't.
Basically what I'm trying to ask is I see how we can divide our own hands into subranges and play them advantageously that way, but can we really infer what subrange an opponent might have according to this same hierarchy? i.e. bet for value/check for showdownvalue/bet as a bluff or semi-bluff/fold the total garbage. They may not follow the same line of reasoning, especially at 2nl, so I'm not sure whether this theory works for reading our opponents?
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<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.
JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Well, your opponents overall range will be divided into subranges regardless. However, how those subranges are divided might be different from what you would do, or I would do, or what would be optimal. But it's highly unlikely that they will play every hand in their flop range the same way when checked to. I'm not saying they are thinking of it as "I have showdown value but rarely get called by a worse hand if I bet, so I check for pot control/showdown value". But they could come to the same decision by saying "I only have middle pair... I'm checking".
For instance, an aggressive player will bet more often than a passive player when checked to. So it stands to reason that he will have a wider A range, and a wider C range than the passive player. He's likely to bet more marginal hands when checked to, and also be more willing to bet his air hands. The passive player on the other hand will tend to check more often than bet. So his A range will be tighter, and he will be less willing to "bluff" or bet his C range. Therefore, more hands will fall into his B range, and therefore we would expect a bit more hands to check back.
It's all relevant. Your villains could be flawed and bet hands in what they think is for value, when they really only ever get called by better hands. Or they might turn a hand into a bluff when it's actually the worst thing to do at this point. This is where reads and understanding your villains come into play. And this is why taking notes can be very important to understanding how to adjust to beat villains.
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nish81
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 295
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Well, your opponents overall range will be divided into subranges regardless. However, how those subranges are divided might be different from what you would do, or I would do, or what would be optimal. But it's highly unlikely that they will play every hand in their flop range the same way when checked to. I'm not saying they are thinking of it as "I have showdown value but rarely get called by a worse hand if I bet, so I check for pot control/showdown value". But they could come to the same decision by saying "I only have middle pair... I'm checking".
For instance, an aggressive player will bet more often than a passive player when checked to. So it stands to reason that he will have a wider A range, and a wider C range than the passive player. He's likely to bet more marginal hands when checked to, and also be more willing to bet his air hands. The passive player on the other hand will tend to check more often than bet. So his A range will be tighter, and he will be less willing to "bluff" or bet his C range. Therefore, more hands will fall into his B range, and therefore we would expect a bit more hands to check back.
It's all relevant. Your villains could be flawed and bet hands in what they think is for value, when they really only ever get called by better hands. Or they might turn a hand into a bluff when it's actually the worst thing to do at this point. This is where reads and understanding your villains come into play. And this is why taking notes can be very important to understanding how to adjust to beat villains.
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Ah I understand. thanks for the tips! I used the ABCD theorem and your advice while playing for a bit last night, and the decisions I had to make made much more sense.
PS My av is hotter than yours..
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<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.
JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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only thing to consider is what your gut is telling you.
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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Lucothefish
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cretaceous Park
Posts: 701
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All I know is my gut says maybe....
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<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?
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nish81
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 295
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
only thing to consider is what your gut is telling you.
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My gut says 'cant win if you fold' - somehow i dont think I should trust it
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<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.
JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Durrrr is in your gut? I would pay for that
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nish81
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 295
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Durrrr is in your gut? I would pay for that 
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caught in the act
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<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.
JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds
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