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These spots scare the shit out of me.

  
 
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Carroters
Old 08-23-2009, 11:12 PM     Post subject: These spots scare the shit out of me. #1 (permalink)  
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Location: Da Amberlamps
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Carroters has a spectacular aura aboutCarroters has a spectacular aura about
 Villain is 25/21 over 30 hands.

My mind is frazzled from the session I just played and I think I may have played this hand pretty badly. A small raise like this really scares me since it's so often value. I'll assign villain a range on this flop of [JJ,99,77,AdQd,AJs,AdTd,KdQd,QdJd,JdTd,J9s,AJo] this is pretty generous in terms of draws as he may well be c/c fds instead. I have no reads whatsoever, first pot I'd played with him post flop.

My first question I suppose is does this range seem reasonable for an unknown 25NL player. This is obviously assuming there is no total air in there since this is a parculiar and uncommon spot to encounter your average micro villain bluffing in.

Given that we have 53% Equity vs this range it's probably better to get it in on this flop to ensure we don't lose value if the board gets scarier overcards cause his AJ combos to shutdown etc. Or does anyone actually like my flop play here?

Next question - should we bet this river? I'm not sure we really get value from anything here. We can count out flushes from his range when he checks this river imo, but I think sets and 2 pairs are still possible. Also he now probably folds AJ to any decent sized river bet if he's bet the turn with it in the first place.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($30.35)
BB ($26.25)
Hero (UTG) ($68.60)
MP ($25)
CO ($25.35)
Button ($9.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
Hero bets $1, 3 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($3) 7, J, 9 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.15, 1 fold, BB raises $5, Hero calls $2.85

Turn: ($13) Q (2 players)
BB bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($25) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $25

 
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littleogre
Old 08-23-2009, 11:43 PM #2 (permalink)  

Join Date: Oct 2004
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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 well honestly i would fold the turn as the Qs completed a lot of draws. I assume he didn't get there though as he checked the river.
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BluffCheck
Old 08-24-2009, 01:20 AM #3 (permalink)  

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BluffCheck
2.5 flop, and pop his raise up to like 13, and ship any turn?
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littleogre
Old 08-24-2009, 02:57 AM #4 (permalink)  

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
Quote:
Originally Posted by BluffCheck
2.5 flop, and pop his raise up to like 13, and ship any turn?
Are you sure you wanna ship that turn? It's a pretty bad card for us? I would have reraised villain on the flop though.
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BluffCheck
Old 08-24-2009, 03:31 AM #5 (permalink)  

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BluffCheck
i'm saying a flop ship is probably +ev vs this villain's range, but if we're unable to get it in on the flop, on the turn the pot is 29 and eff stacks are 11, and we have to ship since folding is giving money away
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daven
Old 08-24-2009, 08:19 AM #6 (permalink)  
Straight Flush

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Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
daven will become famous soon enough
 i like every street.

I don't like your flop calculations, the range you assigned to his raise is not the same range that will call a flop shove...
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Carroters
Old 08-24-2009, 12:13 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Carroters has a spectacular aura aboutCarroters has a spectacular aura about
 Idk what I was on last night, I was very tired. For some reason I've included all these diamond suited cards when I've meant to use some clubs the range is just totally messed up. Basically AJ, KJ and QJ, JTs combos, 77 99 JJ QQ KK AA and some fds - I think that's prolly whatll call a shove.

 
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Old 08-24-2009, 12:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
well honestly i would fold the turn as the Qs completed a lot of draws.
What? No. Hell no. I like the call IP on the turn. The check behind on the river is fine. He's probably not calling with worse hands and we have a 100bb pot sitting in the middle with only an overpair on a drawy board.
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Gobbatino
Old 08-24-2009, 01:46 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Posts: 341
Gobbatino
I was thinking of 3betting this flop.

Can we assume a stack off range of {JJ,99,77,AcQc,AJs,AcTc,QcTc,J9s,AJo,J9o}? Against that range we have 45.848% so 3betting for value doesn't work. That might be too tight, though, if we add stuff like QT,KJ,etc we end up with well over 50% equity. Can/should we include those for an unknown?
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