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saywhat2
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01-04-2006, 06:30 PM
Post subject: Tell me what you think of this hand
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 113
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Me and my Friend Bob, are having a debate about a hand he played. Please share your thoughts. The setup is 200NL 1-2 dollar blinds. There will be three people to enter the pot. Bob, Steve and Mike. All three players have 200 dollars in front of them. Ok so Bob opens it up in Middle position for 8 dollars with pocket 9’s. The next player to enter is Steve, Steve makes it 24 dollars. Mike calls the 24 dollars from the Button. BB and SB fold. Back to Bob, Bob folds. The flop comes Qc-9h-2s. Steve leads out and bets 20. Mike goes all in for 175 dollars. Steve calls the remaining 155 dollars. Turn over the cards Steve shows KK and Mike shows QQ ,Mike made a set of queens. The turn is a 9 (Bob would have made four 9’s) the river is a blank. Mike takes down 409 dollars.
Ok so this is the first part of are debate. I say Bob should make the call pre flop with his pocket nines. There is 59 dollars in the pot .It will cost Bob another 16 to make the call. The Implied odds he will be getting on his money should justify the call. And if he doesn’t hit the set he can throw it away.
Now part 2 of are debate. He says even if he made the initial call. He would throw it away after the flop. He says based on the betting he was sure somebody had hit the set of queens. I say yes you may be right, but with no st8 and no flush on the brd you got to make that call. As Doyle says in supers system, sometimes you just got to pay them off.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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You are getting 4:1 on your money to see the flop with 99, suspecting someone has an overpair. I don't think this is a good call because the odds of hitting a set on the flop are 8:1.
With a set of nines on a flop like that, I will push AI or call an AI from a preceding player. The only hand that beats you here is QQ, and there are only 3 left in the 47 card deck.
Some 2nd best hands (999 vs QQQ) such as this one, are easily pushed when holding 99. Whereas a nut flush vs. king high flush.
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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You have pocket 99, and your call will close the betting. You need to win a $240 if you flop a set, and you already have $9 in. You need to call $15 more. Taking implied odds into account, and the fact that you'll no set no bet this hand, you're getting about 16-1 on your money if you expect someone to play for stacks. Let's be conservative and call it 11-1. Your chance of flopping a set is about 11%. The answer is yes, it is correct to call in this spot. Your opponents just did you a favor by pricing you in.
I hope my math is close. It could be flawed.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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yea you should definatly call that preflop. That fact that the guy called with KK showed that you stand a good chance of getting paid if you hit your set. As for the flop push, whether or not you call that depends entirely on the players you are against. I call it all day long with those stack sizes (in BBs) at my limit where it could be AA, AQ or 22 but if you are against really tight players who are only going to overbet like that with QQ then you have to fold it.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Rondavu is right, I keep forgetting about implied odds. I was thinking along the lines of 'if i hit this set i take down the pot as is.' If you hit the set, you can build that pot up much greater.
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Lodogg
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Stealing your C-bet
Posts: 199
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Part 1: Call this pot...with a reraise pre-flop someone is holding a really strong hand that they may be willing to go the distance with. Hit a set and you own that opponent. You are getting great implied odds.
Part 2: You have to go all in. Chances of a set over set is roughly 1:100. I'll risk going broke with those odds. Even if you do run into a higher set, you might get lucky (8% to win) and quad out as in the example above. It is more likely that my opponents are holding AA and KK.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lodogg
Even if you do run into a higher set, you might get lucky (8% to win) and quad out as in the example above.
It is more likely that my opponents are holding AA and KK.
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They are more likely to "get lucky" with AA / KK improving to trips than you are to quads. If you get it in as a set over set you still played it right providing your opponent would have also put it in with an overpair. If you get it all in against a higher set when your opponent wouldnt go allin without at least middle set then you played it horribly.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Lodogg
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Stealing your C-bet
Posts: 199
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I disagree with you Pelion...With that flop, I couldn't think of one argument for throwing that hand away. There is only one hand that is ahead of you. Sometimes you just have to pay off your opponent. I will gladly pay someone off if my set is beat.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lodogg
I disagree with you Pelion...With that flop, I couldn't think of one argument for throwing that hand away. There is only one hand that is ahead of you. Sometimes you just have to pay off your opponent. I will gladly pay someone off if my set is beat.
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If you will gladly pay off an opponent who only ever goes allin with the nuts when you have middle set then . . . well . . . good for you.
I am happy to pay off most players on this hand. Well, almost all of them ive met so far actually. Im just saying you have to keep an eye out for the players that are so passive that they only raise when they have the nuts. They are out there and it's up to you to pay attention and spot that. If you pay someone off when they havnt raised all year except when theyve turned over the stone cold nuts then im afraid you've played it wrong. I would actually call in this case im just saying it is still player dependant.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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bunthorne
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01-05-2006, 01:09 PM
Post subject: Re: Tell me what you think of this hand
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#10 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 147
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by saywhat2
Me and my Friend Bob, are having a debate about a hand he played. Please share your thoughts. The setup is 200NL 1-2 dollar blinds. There will be three people to enter the pot. Bob, Steve and Mike. All three players have 200 dollars in front of them. Ok so Bob opens it up in Middle position for 8 dollars with pocket 9’s. The next player to enter is Steve, Steve makes it 24 dollars. Mike calls the 24 dollars from the Button. BB and SB fold. Back to Bob, Bob folds. The flop comes Qc-9h-2s. Steve leads out and bets 20. Mike goes all in for 175 dollars. Steve calls the remaining 155 dollars. Turn over the cards Steve shows KK and Mike shows QQ ,Mike made a set of queens. The turn is a 9 (Bob would have made four 9’s) the river is a blank. Mike takes down 409 dollars.
Ok so this is the first part of are debate. I say Bob should make the call pre flop with his pocket nines. There is 59 dollars in the pot .It will cost Bob another 16 to make the call. The Implied odds he will be getting on his money should justify the call. And if he doesn’t hit the set he can throw it away.
Now part 2 of are debate. He says even if he made the initial call. He would throw it away after the flop. He says based on the betting he was sure somebody had hit the set of queens. I say yes you may be right, but with no st8 and no flush on the brd you got to make that call. As Doyle says in supers system, sometimes you just got to pay them off.
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1. I know most people have advocated calling, and some books will tell you that you should always call preflop with any pair in a cash game, but I think this situation is a judgement call. We are looking at a sizeable preflop reraise and a call here and so the chances are very much that at least one of them has an overpair to your nines. If you know that your opponents will play this way with any pair from 22 upwards or two high cards suited or not, you call. If not, I would suggest you must consider folding.
I have a lot of debates about pot odds, implied odds and whether or not a call is correct. Maths is important, but not as important as knowing your opponents and the types of hand they play. For me, that would be more crucial than the odds I am receiving.
2. If you are sure, that is sure, that someone has made a set of queens on the flop then you fold. You do not make that call! And if you are sure that someone has made top set from the betting and you can get away from middle set then you are a world class player, or not far short of it!
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