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Utrmstbst

04-29-2008, 12:56 AM Post subject: The technical side of Poker?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2007

Posts: 12

Hello again,

One thing that I am finding to be discouraging is present within a lot of the poker videos on this site, and that is the technical side I am seeing used by online poker players. I do not have strong skills in math and do not understand terms like pot odds and 2 to 1 etc... I know this is a disadvantage to me, but do I need to be a math whiz to have a fighting chance at this game I love so much? I generally do well in poker games, making reads on people and acting on them; I believe that I am aggressive when I see the right hands, but I am not doing much in the way of mathematical calculations because I simply do not know how.

I have a basic understanding of bankroll management and have made it so that I won't be suffering huge losses when the lows of poker come my way, but as for in the game mathematics, all I am doing is trying to put people on hands and trying to get my money in when I know I have a hand and they don't. Can this still be profitable? These videos, on FTR, show pros using a tool known as poker tracker and they talking about percentages and odds and the big one is when they indicate weather or not it is profitable to make a call or a bet based on odds and such. I don't know the math to make a call or bet, I just bet when think that I am favorite to come out on top according to my outs.

Should I be reconsidering poker as a hobby? These videos though interesting and insightful, are also technical and leave me feeling like this game is beyond my level and I should therefore not waste my money.

I appreciate any of your thoughts
Utrmstbst

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AlphaKennyBody

04-29-2008, 01:08 AM Post subject: Re: The technical side of Poker?

#2 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2007

Posts: 108

My recommendation is to not try and digest it all at once. Start out with basic things like calculating your odds to hitting your flush or open ended straight draw on the flop. From this....

Quote:

Originally Posted by Utrmstbst

Hello again,
I just bet when think that I am favorite to come out on top according to my outs.
Utrmstbst

it seems like you're about to that point. After you feel comfortable, read up on implied odds, set odds, and the like, and also post hands in which you're questioning whether you have the odds to bet or call. Don't feel overwhelmed though...these things take time to learn and apply (I don't even think I'm even close to having a full grasp on everything myself

wesrman

04-29-2008, 01:31 AM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2007

Location: Leaf Nation

Posts: 654

Start with learning outs and the rule of 2 and 4.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chQ2Dso3o7U

bjsaust

04-29-2008, 01:37 AM

#4 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Location: Ballarat, Australia

Posts: 5,842

Exact numbers arent neccessary. Just learn the approximate odds for some basic things and round the numbers at the time and you'll be fine.

Just playing to improve.

Stacks

04-29-2008, 02:05 AM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2008

Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.

Posts: 2,605

For what it's worth, when a player is talking about percentage to win, equity, and what type of play to make against a range of hands given how his cards stack up agains that range, they aren't using PokerTracker to do that. Instead they are using a program called PokerStove. It's free so go get it immediately. What you can do there is take you hand, and the information on the board [if seen yet], and calculate your equity [chance to win] against opponents range of hands.

Next learn all about pots odds you can. Too be honest, I've been playing for a while, and I'm not 100% confident on my pot odds calculating abilities. I know how to calculate my outs, and transform that into a ratio and compare that the pot, which is essentially pot odds, but there is an even harder side known as implied odds that takes into account future betting on later streets (This is the area I struggle with still).

Utrmstbst

04-29-2008, 02:10 AM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2007

Posts: 12

Is there are quick way to calculate your outs while in a game and transform that into a ration as you say? Is there a quick formula for that?

Stacks

04-29-2008, 02:21 AM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2008

Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.

Posts: 2,605

Quote:

Originally Posted by wesrman

Start with learning outs and the rule of 2 and 4.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chQ2Dso3o7U

Great find! Wish I woulda had this when I started learning pot odds.

The only thing I see is that he uses the percentages instead of the ratios. I started learning with percentages, and while it is easy to determine your hands percentage, I would it wasn't the easiest to determine the percentage your bet represents of the pot. So I decided to learn using ratios instead. Little rundown on how to do that.

First calculate your outs: Say you have a nut flush draw on the turn, so you have 9 outs.

Use the rule of 2: Since we only have one card to come we use the rule of 2, which is: 9 * 2 = 18%

Convert the percentage to a ratio: This is done through a simple formula.

(100 / percentage) - 1 = x

x:1 is your ratio

SO...

For this example we have (you can approximate to be close. In this case rounding 18 to 20): (100 / 20) - 1 = 5 - 1 = 4

4:1 is your chances of making your flush on the river.

Calculate Pot Odds: Just as the video showed. Take the amount in pot and divide by amount to call. Example: 800 in pot. 400 to call. Pot oddds are 800:400=2:1

Compare Hand odds to pot odds: If the pot odds are greater than your hand odds, it is right to call. If the pot odds are smaller it is right to fold. Given this example you have 4:1 hand odds and 2:1 pot odds, so you should fold.

Hopefully that helps a bit to explain it.

All information used can be found:

http://www.tightpoker.com/poker_odds.html

XxStacksxX

bjsaust

04-29-2008, 06:14 AM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Location: Ballarat, Australia

Posts: 5,842

You make it way too hard, just memorise this stuff:

Flop
FD - 35%
SD - 31%
SFD - 54%

Turn
FD - 20%
SD - 17%
SFD - 32%

Or round it off even more.

Flop
SD or FD - 1/3 chance of hitting.
SFD - Favorite to win hand.

Turn
SD or FD - 1/5 chance of hitting
SFD - 1/3 chance of hitting.

Like I say, approximate is fine unless you're playing hands with cards face up.

Just playing to improve.

Stacks

04-29-2008, 08:00 AM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2008

Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.

Posts: 2,605

I'm sorry I have to disagree with you here bj. Yeah, while it's easy to remember those percentages, there a number of things here that aren't ideal.

1) If somoeone is going to learn something probably best to attempt to learn the correct and full way, imo. We all know poker is a game that requires studying, in order to get better. This falls in that category. If you can learn to do something the right way, why choose a less than ideal shortcut (which I believe yours is, will explain in next point).

2) The examples you provided are only for Straight, Flush, and Straight-Flush Draws. Which is 8, 9, and 15 outs. There will, however, be times when you have more or less outs, so just memorizing an "incomplete" chart is not going to help in all instances. (I of course say "incomplete", but it would be ideal to memorize the exact percentage for a given number of outs, however that would take loads of time, and we all agree approximates are good enough.) However, you must have approximations for all instances. And that is exactly what the "Rule of 2" and "Rule of 4" provides.

3) Obviously if you know you have a flush draw, you can deduct you have "at least" 9 outs to win the hand. Depending on where you are in the hand you pick which rule to use (think larger number = more cards to come. Therefore if your on the flop with 2 cards left to come you use "Rule of 4", and if you are on the turn with just the river left you use "Rule of 2".) After that it's just a simple multiplication of your outs to the rule number.

4) The harder instance if figuring out what percentage of the pot you represent in a percentage form, "imo". It's much easier to say there is 40 in the pot and you have to call 10, so the pot odds is 40:10, or 4:1. So if you can use the fairly simple equation to determine what odds you have off making your hand in ratio form you can easily compare it to the pot odds and decide your play.

Stacks

04-29-2008, 08:04 AM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2008

Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.

Posts: 2,605

To Original Poster, my suggestion to you is at least attempt to learn to calculate pot odds fully and for all instances, by referring to either the video or my post/link, and deciding which you find easier for you.

If however, you feel you do not grasp it, or will not grasp it, then post back here and let us know. I'd be happy to explain things in a little more detail (if you need) and provide a few examples we could walk through together (only concerning pot odds, as I still don't have an absolute grasp on implied odds yet [getting there though]).

Good luck

16710Pepsi

04-29-2008, 12:29 PM

#11 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2007

Location: The old world

Posts: 2

To answer the original posters question in a way that may ease his mind.

You do NOT need to understand the whole math in the world to be successful at poker!

This was the simple answer in one short sentence.
Now for the reasoning behind it:
- The mathematical and statistical reasoning behind the game of poker is pretty rough to wrap your head around. Many a college kid has been tortured with it (though not for the use of advancing as a poker player lol) and most only memorized it, but never understood it.

What I am saying in a pretty weird way is that you don't have to understand how or why it works (this is what involves math), but you do have to accept that it works and learn to apply it (which is just a boring, repatative task).
You don't have to calculate the exact numbers or anything (though for some it is easier doing that than memorizing them).
FYI there are many guys that consider themselves great poker players (ego is something that is surely not at a loss in any poker player) and that actually do quite well (mostly in low or up to medium stakes; also depends on other things too ...) that have no idea about math, stats, odds, outs and all that crap, but are merely running some programm alongside their playing that tells them all these infos in real-time.

To cut directly through the bull, what you need to see, is how the hands play out, how your chances of improving your hands at the certain stages are and then bring all that into relation with the betting.
I know this seems complicated, but you actually do not have to do any math besides very basic calculations. If you can add up your grocery bill without any big trouble then you can certainly do that.

Look through the beginner's section of this site. There are very nice explanations of how to do all that. You will see that you do not have to be a math wiz to understand it all and if there is something or you get to some point where it seems to complicated to understand, just drop a thread on the forums here and I am sure there will be loads of people trying to help you out. Sometimes it is just a matter of hearing or reading something explained in a different way and it just makes click.

Also, only take it one step at a time. The temptation is big to try to learn all the "basics" (depends on how wide you define basics) in one day, but you will find out soon that that is quite impossible. If you just tackle one thing at a time and get comfortable with it, then in a few weeks you will be a pro in the field of basic poker theory.

all the best

deacon_bluez

04-29-2008, 03:06 PM

#12 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2006

Location: Minnesota, USA

Posts: 216

Also, you want to be careful applying the rule of 4 and 2. The rule of 4 calculates the chances of hitting your draw by the RIVER, so if you apply it, you have to commit to playing all streets to get its full value, or fold. What will you do if you call a bet on the flop, miss your draw, and your opponent pushes you all in? Your situation is now very different.

On the other hand, the rule of 2 calculates your odds of hitting the draw on the next STREET. A cautious player might want to apply this on the turn instead, and then re-evaluate on the turn how to proceed if the draw misses, particularly with deep relative stacks.

Sue me if I play too long....

wesrman

04-29-2008, 03:08 PM

#13 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2007

Location: Leaf Nation

Posts: 654

Quote:

Originally Posted by deacon_bluez

On the other hand, the rule of 2 calculates your odds of hitting the draw on the next STREET. A cautious player might want to apply this on the turn instead, and then re-evaluate on the turn how to proceed if the draw misses, particularly with deep relative stacks.

QFT.

bjsaust

04-29-2008, 11:05 PM

#14 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Location: Ballarat, Australia

Posts: 5,842

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Disagree. For one thing, the rule of 2/etc are just approximates also. For another, if you're sitting at the table trying to work out if you're getting 36% or only 34%, you're wasting time. You only need to get these things approximately right.

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

2) The examples you provided are only for Straight, Flush, and Straight-Flush Draws. Which is 8, 9, and 15 outs. There will, however, be times when you have more or less outs, so just memorizing an "incomplete" chart is not going to help in all instances. (I of course say "incomplete", but it would be ideal to memorize the exact percentage for a given number of outs, however that would take loads of time, and we all agree approximates are good enough.) However, you must have approximations for all instances. And that is exactly what the "Rule of 2" and "Rule of 4" provides.

Quite deliberately. I almost included the odds of improving from a set to a boat, but thats barely relevant anyway (approx 20% on turn). Almost any other reason for counting your outs are irrelevant to pot odds situations, for the simple reason that very very rarely will you be offerred anywhere near the odds required. If you are, its probably more a reads/implied odds situation anyway.

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

3) Obviously if you know you have a flush draw, you can deduct you have "at least" 9 outs to win the hand. Depending on where you are in the hand you pick which rule to use (think larger number = more cards to come. Therefore if your on the flop with 2 cards left to come you use "Rule of 4", and if you are on the turn with just the river left you use "Rule of 2".) After that it's just a simple multiplication of your outs to the rule number.

I fail to see how this is easier than just knowing about 4 different numbers by rote.

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

4) The harder instance if figuring out what percentage of the pot you represent in a percentage form, "imo". It's much easier to say there is 40 in the pot and you have to call 10, so the pot odds is 40:10, or 4:1. So if you can use the fairly simple equation to determine what odds you have off making your hand in ratio form you can easily compare it to the pot odds and decide your play.

The numbers I give are already in odds format, I fail to see how using an equation to get a percentage and then using another equation to convert that to a ratio is easier...

Remember:

Quote:

I do not have strong skills in math and do not understand terms like pot odds and 2 to 1 etc.

OP does not have good maths skills, in fact no offence but its fair to say he has poor maths skills. The simpler the better.

Just playing to improve.

deacon_bluez

04-30-2008, 04:59 AM

#15 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2006

Location: Minnesota, USA

Posts: 216

True, you need to only get things approximately right. But what happens when you have an overcard that is a likely out? Or 2 overs? Or a gutshot?

If it's true that OP has really poor math skills, he won't be able to apply the figures anyway after he memorizes them as you recommend. Besides those numbers, he also needs to apply them to pot sizes, bet sizes, stack sizes.... He can play poker by feel and have fun with it, but to take his game to the next level he will surely need to get comfy with the math and practice enough that he can do it fairly quickly too, if he's playing online.

Sue me if I play too long....

Stacks

04-30-2008, 05:34 AM

#16 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2008

Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.

Posts: 2,605

I totally agree that we only need approximations. I'm pretty good at math, but I'm not willing to set down and do the exact calculation while playing. Even if you played a single table I doubt many could do that in their head in time to make a play.

And the point is they don't need to. The method I presented isn't that complex. It's very easy to find the odds the pot is offering, by just taking the number at the top of PS and dividing by the number you have to call. No problems there. And honestly it isn't too tough to multiply outs by 2 or 4 and then apply to the formula I mentioned, which will put the odds of making your hand into a ratio that compares easily with what you determined about the pot.

Adding/Removing a few cents from the pot to round it, and adding/removing a few percentage points here and there isn't gonna absolutely kill you in the long run.

And there will be times you have a different number of outs than you explained.

bjsaust

04-30-2008, 05:40 AM

#17 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Location: Ballarat, Australia

Posts: 5,842

1/3 pot bet = 1/4 odds
1/2 pot bet = 1/3 odds.
Pot bet = 1/2 odds.

Between 1/2 and full pot sized bets you're getting worse than 1/3 odds, which is about all you need to know. Anything much beyond that generally comes down to implied odds and stuff like that anyway (i.e., you need to win more than whats on offer atm to make it worthwhile).

Again, you can just estimate beyond this. If you have overs and think they're possible outs, then consider yourself to be slightly better than 1/3 to hit them. If you have a gutshot, again its almost impossible that you'll be given odds anyway. Other than the mighty min-bet, how many times do people bet less than 1/2 pot? Let alone...what, something like 1/10 pot to give you gutshot odds?

Learn the few basics and extend from there.

I'm not saying learning rule of 2/4 is a bad thing, but for a new player whos bad at maths, they can get by learning about 6-10 "numbers" by rote.

Just playing to improve.

deacon_bluez

04-30-2008, 02:48 PM

#18 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2006

Location: Minnesota, USA

Posts: 216

Quote:

Originally Posted by deacon_bluez

True, you need to only get things approximately right. But what happens when you have an overcard that is a likely out? Or 2 overs? Or a gutshot?

(Edit: Sorry, I meant to say a flush or straight draw PLUS overs or a flush draw PLUS a gutshot.)

Sue me if I play too long....

jyms

04-30-2008, 08:25 PM

#19 (permalink)

Tilting Mod

Join Date: Feb 2006

Posts: 4,836

Wow. I get the math and this thread confuses me. You guys make shit way to hard.

p.s. 2 - 4 rule is the bomb. If you can multiply by two and four, and you know a flush draw is 9 outs, straight draws are 8 outs and gut shots are 4 it's all you need. This ain't limit and nobody can predict implied odds accurately, so round numbers are fine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Utrmstbst

Is there are quick way to calculate your outs while in a game and transform that into a ration as you say? Is there a quick formula for that?

Yes. There are 13 cards of every suit and 4 of every rank. When you have 4 to a flush you need one of the 9 cards remaining. Open end straight draws have 8 outs. If you have 78 and the flop is 56x then you need one of the four 9's or 4's remaining.

Now memorize that and the math gets easy. If you have 4 hearts on the flop and you know you have 9 outs remaining you multiply your 9 outs times 2 = 18% chance of hitting on the turn. If you miss, it's 2 x 9 outs again to hit on the river. That's another 18%. Now if you want to know your odds of hitting any draw by the river, you multiply by 4 on the flop since you will see 2 streets.

Are you stillhaving problems or do you understand now?

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tom

04-30-2008, 10:57 PM

#20 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: May 2005

Location: ATX

Posts: 158

so I'm pretty good at math, but have always just takin approximates of outs by 50 in my head

multiplying by 2 makes what was going on in my head much easier though, but just as much sense. GD mech engineering has made me turn everything into math that is more difficult than it should be...thanks guys!

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