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Waggho
Old 03-02-2005, 03:23 PM     Post subject: Swinging... #1 (permalink)  
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I can´t believe the swings on Party! Everytime I have played there I have experienced huge swings up and down. I have been playing .10/.25 a lot at other sites, with moderate swings, and now that Party offers it too I´ve been playing there. Result yesterday: +$160. Result today: -$70, but I was down to -$120 for a while. Ísn´t 400-600 big blinds up or down in a day something that happens, but shouldn´t happen too frequently? This is my third bonus at Party, and when working the other two off it was about the same (although then the blinds structure was .25/50).

These swings are affecting my mood far more than what is good for my game.
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ilikeaces86
Old 03-02-2005, 03:37 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Dont Play Poker if you cant handle the swings, or drop down in limits.
 
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stevedonel
Old 03-02-2005, 03:54 PM #3 (permalink)  
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My swing discussion last month

Some good points by Fnord and elipsesjeff. What else would expect from them?
Is that guy still part of the forum??
 
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twosevoff
Old 03-02-2005, 03:55 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Party players are looser than on many other sites, which ramps up the variance. In the end you're going to make more, but the swings are more severe because you're going to get drawn out on a lot more.
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Waggho
Old 03-04-2005, 08:34 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Dont Play Poker if you cant handle the swings,
This is the third time at this forum I get the advice to quit playing poker. It just doesn´t make anyone happy, nor does it make anyone a better player. Just skip it next time, will ya?
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Trikflow77
Old 03-04-2005, 08:47 PM #6 (permalink)  
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400-600 big blind swings are 200-300 big bet swings. You are playing too loose. Tighten up and the swings will get smaller.
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Waggho
Old 03-04-2005, 10:00 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trikflow77
400-600 big blind swings are 200-300 big bet swings. You are playing too loose. Tighten up and the swings will get smaller.
Just to clarify, I´m playing NL.
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copa
Old 03-04-2005, 11:01 PM #8 (permalink)  

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We should set something up where people can watch the other people at the table for a while if they want and give them some advice about what they saw. They could get in contact over aim or something and let know hands dealt, etc.

Some of the actions that could be contributing to losses could be then eliminated that do not always appear on the paper hand histories.

Good luck with party, I hope to be opening an account there after only playing on absolute. My swings have been much lower there, the greatest so far being a 10BigBet (or 20 bb) swing at .25nl tables.

But yea, I'd suggest tightening up a bit and mabye raising more if they continue to call. Eliminate limpers from the pot with your premium hands.

Do you have any stats from your games?
old total profit: about $450 or so

goal before school starts (8/20): $1k more
progress: $194
 
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ensign_lee
Old 03-04-2005, 11:22 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copa
Good luck with party, I hope to be opening an account there after only playing on absolute. My swings have been much lower there, the greatest so far being a 10BigBet (or 20 bb) swing at .25nl tables.
20 BBs!?!?! That is sickeningly low variance. How do you do that?!?!?!
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whileone
Old 03-04-2005, 11:27 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I have four kinds of days.
1. i don't have my game together and i lose.
big swings - up 1 buy in then down 2 several times in a row

2. i do have my game together and i lose.
little swings - maybe loose one buy in to a bad beat, not much action on my big hands.

3. i don't have my game togheter and i win.
huge swings - pushing like a mad man say, up 2 buy in, down 1. catching river cards.

4. i do have my game together and i win.
little swings - up 2 buy ins, maybe lose one buy in and win 3 back...

it seems like, if i'm playing right, the pots don't get very big unless i have a big hand, so i don't loose much. everybody takes bad beats and such, but i haven't had 4 in a day where i thought i played right.

I'd say, look through your hand historys of your swingy days. i'd guess you're ignoring position or making some loose calls. throw a few hands into the odds calculator at twodimes, make sure you had the odds you thought you had.

i play 200-300 hands per day nl ring... i believe that my super swingy days my game sucks. In general, i try to win small pots with risky hands, and try to win big pots with big hands. when i don't have my game, i screw everything up.

more sophisticated players win big pots with risky hands - i'm nowhere near that class, and i think it's much tougher to evaluate swingyness for that kind of player.

my point is, if you have a super swingy day, you probably have a leak. something is turning poker into gambling. be pretty ruthless in your evaluation of your play. make sure you know *why* you did what you did. also make sure you're comfortable with that reason. I've had swingy days trying to teach someone a lesson. I've had swingy days because i get married to AA,AK,KK and cant get away from them.

you'll figure it out. take your time. be cool.
Noooooooooooooooo!!
--Darth Vader
 
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copa
Old 03-04-2005, 11:53 PM #11 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ensign_lee
Quote:
Originally Posted by copa
Good luck with party, I hope to be opening an account there after only playing on absolute. My swings have been much lower there, the greatest so far being a 10BigBet (or 20 bb) swing at .25nl tables.
20 BBs!?!?! That is sickeningly low variance. How do you do that?!?!?!
I play pretty tight and dont bluff too often. I almost never call on second best hand (ie middle pair etc) unless I have a good degree of certanity I will win.

I dont really know why, but I almost never have to rebuy, and most of the time I have been buying in for 1/5 of max ($10 at .25nl). Recently, I have started to buy in for more, I know. I have honestly lost my $10 I think 2 times so far on this new account and mabye one other time on the other.

I think I have played about 10k hands since I started or so.

Good decisions, etc, I'm not sure, but it has been working.

The only stat of notice that I have seen is my winning percentage if the flop is seen, which is +48% to 50%. This is the AP stat program, and includes bb hands, sb hands, and all the others I play, so I assume a % hands won based a V$IP would be higher.

Hands that see flop is low/mid 20s% (includes bbs).
old total profit: about $450 or so

goal before school starts (8/20): $1k more
progress: $194
 
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copa
Old 03-05-2005, 12:00 AM #12 (permalink)  

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A couple of days ago, I was about to have a really bad swinging day, but I won a huge $50 pot and was up for the day. If I had lost that, which I couldn't see possibly happening once the river hit, I would have been down a lot more. Ie 200 big blinds.
old total profit: about $450 or so

goal before school starts (8/20): $1k more
progress: $194
 
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Greedo017
Old 03-05-2005, 12:36 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 20 BB variance? ridiculous. so you're saying you never lose more than 5 dollars?

"something is turning poker into gambling"

while its true its better not to think about poker as gambling, you gotta have some gamble in your game. if you're not willing to risk more than a dollar with anything but the nuts you're missing out.
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TylerK
Old 03-05-2005, 01:04 AM #14 (permalink)  
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I posted my std deviation for NL somewhere on another thread that I'm too lazy to find...it was pretty high though.
TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
 
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copa
Old 03-05-2005, 01:22 AM #15 (permalink)  

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copa
Jeez I screwed up my math. The most has been about $25 in one sitting, but I made that up later in the night. Which would translate to 50BigBets. Sorry about the confusion, but thats still pretty low.

And 20BB (big bets) would be $10. NL games
old total profit: about $450 or so

goal before school starts (8/20): $1k more
progress: $194
 
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Greedo017
Old 03-05-2005, 05:20 AM #16 (permalink)  
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 sorry i didn't meant to sound so angry in my last post, i was just saying that 20BB variance is really a little unrealistically small. you only buying in with 1/5 max explains a little though.

and... aww nuts, you're right on the BB thing. $10 dollars is a much more reasonable variance. I can't even guess at my variance right now, i am kicking ass and taking names at the moment and don't want to taint my success with thinking about losing.
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EasyT
Old 03-07-2005, 08:14 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 Where do I look on PokerTracker for my variance?
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