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spoonitnow

12-15-2008, 01:02 AM Post subject: Super Basics

#1 (permalink)

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Newbies, ask yourselves the following questions:

1. How do I determine if a call is +EV?
2. How do I determine if a value bet (or raise) is +EV?
3. How do I determine if a bluffing bet (or raise) is +EV?

All of these questions have 2 main elements. For extra credit, who knows what they are?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

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I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.

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a500lbgorilla

12-15-2008, 01:22 AM

#2 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

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I do, ship the extra cred.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

a500lbgorilla

12-15-2008, 01:22 AM

#3 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

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Also, ideally there should be 3 things in common. What is spoon forgetting?

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

kb coolman

12-15-2008, 03:01 AM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2008

Posts: 596

Here's my shot:

A call is +EV if it is profitable over the course of a significant sample size. If my ratio to win (let's say, 25%, or 3:1) is greater than the cost ratio to call (let's say call $2 into a $10 pot, giving you 5:1 odds), it is +EV.

A bluffing bet is +EV when your expectation to win the hand is greater with a bluff than with a call. For instance, your opponent is weak tight and you are faily certain he is playing QQ or KK. He checks to you on the Ace flop (of which you caught no part). Your EV to check behind or flat call here is always -EV. The only way this hand becomes +EV is if your opponent folds.

Raising for value is +EV in a couple of areas I can think of. First, when your opponent has a strong hand that you are fairly certain you have beaten. The other time is when you have a strong hand that could easily become vulnerable on later streets. In this case, raising for value should make your opponents call on the draw a mistake, which will be +EV over a significant sample size.

I don't know if I'm right, but there's my shot. I'm not sure what the extra credit elements are.

mieczkowusc

12-15-2008, 04:14 AM

#5 (permalink)

Straight

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The two main elements are pot odds and equity against the opponents range (maybe?)

1. A call can be +EV in two ways or a combination of the two.
a. If the amount to call as a percentage of the pot is less than your equity against the opponents expected range then a call is profitable.
b. If the amount to call as a percentage of the pot is less than the percentage chance of you improving

2. A value bet or raise is +EV if if offers incorrect drawing odds to your opponent, or if it is greater than the value of their expected range equity.

3. A bluff bet is +EV if it forces the opponent to fold a greater percentage of times than the percentage of the pot the bet represents. A bluff bet is also +EV if it forces the opponent to fold at a value less than their expected range equity against your hand.

That's my shot at it. Extra credit?

OhBollocks

12-15-2008, 07:25 AM

#6 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2008

Location: Dublin

Posts: 240

Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Also, ideally there should be 3 things in common. What is spoon forgetting?

Wat?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ISF

Nothing actually changes in a poker game besides equity....
When we can maximize our equity, we will make lots and lots of money.

Sabr1988

12-15-2008, 10:49 AM

#7 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

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Can someone please explain what the +EV means? I cant figure out the connection..

With patience you win

12-15-2008, 11:17 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Sabr1988

Can someone please explain what the +EV means? I cant figure out the connection..

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ev-t22221.html

Monty3038

12-15-2008, 02:15 PM Post subject: Re: Super Basics

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Ok, I haven't read the other answers, but will take my shot (and my licks when my answers are sub-par).

1. A call is +EV if the amount you make when your Expected Value exceed the amount it costs to call when you lose... for example, if you will win 8x the bet you need to win that bet 1 in 7 times to make it profitable... (example, lose .10 bet 7 times = -.70 but win it once into an .80 pot = +.80, over time you will be + 1 bet thus EV is +)

2. A value bet is essentially +EV if you expect to win similar to conditions in 1 above OR if the combination of implied odds and later streets indicate your win will exceed your loss over time.

3. I'm having a hard time with this one and terms, but basically if you can win by forcing villian to fold enough to make #1 true, thus if he folds 1/2 time and you will earn more than 2x the bet, you will be +EV over time.

JKDS

12-15-2008, 02:48 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Ev is calculated by taking what you expect to win, multiplied by the probability of winning, then subtracting what you expect to lose multiplied by the probability you actually will lose. For determining if a call is +Ev, it is as simple as this.

(P+B)*%win - B*%lose where P is the pot and B is your bet.

A value bet is +EV on the other hand takes into account the probability of villain calling with worse and how often he would have bet with worse should we have just called.

(P+B)*%win*%calls - B*%lose*%folds -Bx *%bets
where bx is the amount villain might bet on a later street should we have just called. Im really fuzzy about the above though...

A bluff is +EV by considering three things. The first is how much we expect to win multiplied by the probability of the bluff working. We then add the amount we expect to win multiplied by the probability of winning should we get called. Lastly, we subtract the amount we expect to lose multiplied by how often villain calls multiplied by how often villain wins should he call. I.E....

We have a flush draw on the flop and semibluff.
(P+B)*%Folds + (P+B)(36%) -(B)*%calls*54%= ev

so the three things are the %win, %lose, and %folds?

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.

killerkebab

12-15-2008, 03:36 PM Post subject: Re: Super Basics

#11 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2008

Posts: 149

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

1. How do I determine if a call is +EV?

You determine a call to be +EV if either:
- The odds of your being ahead of your opponent are greater than the odds your opponent is offering you with his bet
- We are currently behind, but have outs on the next card(s) that can take us ahead AND we expect to recover out losses from calling when behind by betting or raising future streets AND getting called by worse hands. Obviously this part depends on our opponents.

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

2. How do I determine if a value bet (or raise) is +EV?

This is +EV if we consider ourselves to be ahead of our opponent's range when called more often than the odds we are offering him with our bet. If we bet the pot for instance, we want to be ahead of at least 50% of our opponents calling range, as opposed to his entire range.

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

3. How do I determine if a bluffing bet (or raise) is +EV?

This is +EV if:
- We expect our opponent to fold more often than the odds we offer him with our bet or raise. If we bet the pot, for instance, we are offering out opponent 2:1, which means we need him to fold more than half the time for this to be +EV. For a bluff to always be profitable, the odds we offer our opponent with our bet should match exactly the odds that our opponent believes we're bluffing. In our previous example, if our opponent thinks we're bluffing half the time, we should bet the pot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

All of these questions have 2 main elements. For extra credit, who knows what they are?

Are they what we believe our equity to be and what our opponent believes it to be, or is this horribly wrong?

Monty3038

12-15-2008, 04:07 PM Post subject: Re: Super Basics

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Monty3038

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Ok, after further reflection and reading the other posts, I didn't really put anything about ranges in there but ranges are very important in this situation... Let me see if I can add them in.

1. How do you determine if a call is +EV? let me see if I can do this briefly: Pot Odds, Implied Odds, Ranges (yours AND opponents) and Fold Equity.

2. How do I determine if a value bet (or raise) is +EV? A value bet or raise is +EV if opponent will call when his range is behind yours. It can also be +EV depending on pot/implied odds and chance that opponent will chase.

3. How do I determine if a bluffing bet (or raise) is +EV?
This one is harder for me... a bluff is +EV if you can make the odds for your opponents range a mistake to call... meaning you put him behind in the hand if he calls, or make villian THINK he is behind in the hand to call... taking away his pot/implied odds against the range he puts you on.

Maybe that is closer... these are all topics it is good for me to learn... I struggle with these simple topics and I believe they are what holds my game back and limits me to playing with an 'underdevloped' feel only.

spoonitnow

12-15-2008, 04:20 PM

#13 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Okay so a lot of you seem to be struggling a bit with this (which is evident since you're all giving different answers) so I'm going to give you a hint which also answers the extra credit; all three of these questions can be answered in terms of two things: your chance of winning and your payoff odds (your risk/reward ratio). Now let's see if you guys can all go back and rewrite your answer in terms of the two things I've listed here. Consider this an exercise in clarity.

ryokan

12-15-2008, 06:34 PM

#14 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 119

delete my stupid question................

but...can u ever determine if any of these plays are +EV before u bet??
my only guess would be what i thought my opponents hand (or range) was, the likelihood he had it, against the money i could win.

12-15-2008, 06:38 PM

#15 (permalink)

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1. If your current equity + future equity is better than your pot odds
by future equity I mean folding equity/implied odds on later streets
2. If you get called by worse more times than you get called or raised by better minus the EV you lose when you get bluffed out of the pot with a bluff raise
3. If your folding equity plus future equity is better than the amount you're risking

two main elements:
equity in the hand
pot odds (or pot percentages)

spoonitnow

12-15-2008, 08:03 PM

#16 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ryokan

but...can u ever determine if any of these plays are +EV before u bet??
my only guess would be what i thought my opponents hand (or range) was, the likelihood he had it, against the money i could win.

This is exactly right. We estimate the EV of plays based on what we think our opponent's range is and the money we will win/lose.

Monty3038

12-15-2008, 08:40 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Great way to put it, exercise in clarity. I think I have some of the 'feel' but not the logic behind why.

Let me try to be clear:

1. How do I determine if a call is +EV?
The call is +EV when my odds of winning are better than the price to bet/call (example, 1.00 pot requiring .10 bet, means I need chance of better than 1 in 10 of winning to make it +EV), thus meaning I need to either already be winning or have at least 5 outs on the flop (48 unknown cards, 10% of that is 4.8, thus 5 outs) to be +EV to call a .10 bet in this example.

2. How do I determine if a value bet (or raise) is +EV?
The value bet is +EV when my chance of winning the hand by placing the bet exceed the odds that I am ahead or can improve combined with the odds that opponent will fold the hand right here.

3. How do I determine if a bluffing bet (or raise) is +EV?
Same as a value bet. I make money when the opponent folds or makes a mistake by calling the bluff (even when opponent is ahead, but the pot is offering him the wrong odds against the range I am representing).

Is that any better?

a500lbgorilla

12-15-2008, 08:44 PM

#18 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

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here's a question: our hand beats our opponent's range on the river and we bet for value expecting him to call with his entire range, if he is at the top of his range and we lose, was our bet still +EV?

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

ryokan

12-15-2008, 08:54 PM

#19 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 119

wow, great questions btw.
My answer to 2nd question is no. If we are expecting him to call with all his range, and we think we're above his range when we bet, surely we've f***ed up if we lose to any of it.

JKDS

12-15-2008, 09:01 PM

#20 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ryokan

this isnt necessarily true. Say the board is k38QJ, we hold KK and value bet assuming opponent will call with AT, 33, 88, QQ, JJ, KQ, KJ, QJ and we get called by the AT, we didnt make a mistake by betting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.

ryokan

12-15-2008, 09:16 PM

#21 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 119

thx, thats was interesting. i was presuming it was any of his range we could beat tho. But i suppose we'd be thinking with his range, whats the likelihood he had AT.

a500lbgorilla

12-15-2008, 09:29 PM

#22 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

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by beat his range, i meant our hand vrs his entire range pokerstove style, not ahead of every element in his range.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

mieczkowusc

12-15-2008, 09:32 PM

#23 (permalink)

Straight

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Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Yes, because if you know the opponent to call with his entire range, then the percentage of times that you lose will be outweighed by the percentage of times that you win.

This = monies.

There will also be a value bet size that is optimal based on the amount the opponent is willing to call based on their range, correct?

Monty3038

12-15-2008, 11:13 PM

#24 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Yes, the call or bet can not be +EV then -EV, if figured right, it remains the same even if you lost. +EV is not results oriented, it is a figure to determine if you made the right move, before you make it.

spoonitnow

12-16-2008, 12:27 AM

#25 (permalink)

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Q1: How do I determine if a call is +EV?

Answer: Compare the payoff to the chance of winning.

* Example 1: No cards left to come

Heads-up on the river, Villain shoves $50 into a pot of $100. We think that we have 40% equity against his range. This call is +EV because our pot odds are 3:1 and the odds against us winning are 1.5:1.

* Example 2: Cards left to come, not calling all-in

Heads-up out of position on the flop, we check to Villain who bets $5 into a pot of $10. We have the nut flush draw, and we think if we hit on the turn, on average we can extract another $15 from this Villain. Our implied odds are 6:1 and the odds against us hitting are about 4:1, so this call is +EV.

* Example 3: Cards left to come, calling all-in

We open raise 77 on the button for 4x the big blind, the small blind shoves to 15bb, and the big blind folds. Since we are calling 11bb to win 20bb, our pot odds are 20:11 or about 1.8:1. We think we have about 40% equity against his range. This call is +EV since our pot odds are 1.8:1 and we are about 1.5:1 against to win.

Erpel

12-16-2008, 12:07 PM

#26 (permalink)

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I think the term payoff is a bit clumsy. Perhaps it would be more exact to state that we need to compare our risk/reward ratio with our win/loss ratio.

The coverage of implied odds is the situation where the reward is not fully known - the opposite to that is when the risk is not fully known. Reverse implied odds. Let's say you have JsJc on a board of Td9d5c and someone bets into us. If we call any A, K and Q may give our opponent a better pair. Any K, Q, J, 8, 7, or 6 may give someone a straight and any diamond at all may give someone a flush. Even T, 9 and 5 may give someone trips.

If we're going to fold to all of these scary cards on the turn we would be wrong to call on the flop. That means we're either raising the flop or, in the context of this example, calling the flop bet and be willing to call a turn bet at a time when we may well be behind. This increases the risk component of our risk/reward ratio in a similar but opposite way to implied odds - called reverse implied odds.

Incidentally Spoon - I saw your post on the FR forum on bluffing (or ABCD ranges as I read it) and I think reverse implied odds can be a criterium in hand selection for your bluffing range. I think Fnord has an example along those lines. The conventional wisdom is to bluff hands with no showdown value and semi-bluff hands with implied odds going for them - and just check or call hands with mediocre showdown value. I think the next level is probably to bluff hands with mediocre showdown value because they are vulnerable to reverse implied odds and when the drawing hands do not improve they still work as bluff catchers.

Monty3038

12-16-2008, 01:54 PM

#27 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

While I give Spoon credit for being correct, this still has me lost.

Obviously I still suck at poker. I will have to digest this more to understand it clearly, as the numbers are getting in the way of me making sense of it. I get the concept I think, but applying it escapes me for some reason with your 1st example. I will study it again and attempt to make sense of it when I am not at work.

spoonitnow

12-16-2008, 06:51 PM

#28 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Monty3038

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...th-t79643.html

ryokan

12-16-2008, 07:25 PM

#29 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 119

hope to see more things like this. anything educational like this is greatly appreciated.

Erpel

12-16-2008, 08:22 PM

#30 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2008

Posts: 605

Quote:

Originally Posted by ryokan

hope to see more things like this. anything educational like this is greatly appreciated.

Not to put too blunt a point on it, but it's there to be found. This forum has an absolute treasure trove of articles. Check the beginners digest, then go to Robb's operation and follow all the links therein. Should keep you busy for days if not weeks.

ryokan

12-16-2008, 08:35 PM

#31 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 119

yep i agree is all there to be found. I've been going through em. Is still nice that these topics pop up for us newbies tho. it feels like they address US rather than other people from FTRs history.

spoonitnow

12-17-2008, 03:25 AM

#32 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Q2: How do I determine if a value bet (or raise) is +EV?

Answer: Compare the payoff to the chance of winning.

Note: Here the payoff is a function of how much you're betting. What is already in the pot is irrelevant.

* Example: No cards left to come

Heads-up on the river in a game with no rake, Villain checks to us in a pot of $250, and we have $200 left behind. We think that if we make a value bet of $200 that we'll have 51% equity against his calling range. Then our value bet is +EV because 51% of the time we win $200 from our opponent's call, and 49% of the time we lose the $200 we're betting.

daven

12-17-2008, 04:21 AM

#33 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Note: Here the payoff is a function of how much you're betting. What is already in the pot is irrelevant.

Agree.

When should we start to consider longer term ev associated with image and villain reads? Wonder also about the times my value bets are in fact unplanned, and successful, bluffs....

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

12-17-2008, 08:03 AM

#34 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

in limit, AKo unimproved is one of those "unplanned successful bluff" hands on the river because a small pair might fold convinced you have it beat
while sometimes AQ unimproved calls you thinking he's getting way too good odds to fold

this is because the ranges overlap

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