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suited flop and I have an overpair...what do i do?

  
 
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 12-14-2006, 01:29 AM     Post subject: suited flop and I have an overpair...what do i do? #1 (permalink)  
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Opponenet is 16/7 and has been playing pretty solid TAG poker.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($72.30)
MP2 ($74)
CO ($49.45)
Hero ($50.15)
SB ($49.25)
BB ($11.75)
UTG ($38.25)
UTG+1 ($44.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, J.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, 2 folds, UTG folds, MP1 folds.

Flop: ($7.75) 9, 6, 8 (2 players)
MP2 bets $7, Hero ........................................


Should I come over the top here to see where he is at? Should I smooth call and use my position to determine just how strong his hand is? Should I lay the hand down now?
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salsa4ever
Old 12-14-2006, 12:27 PM #2 (permalink)  
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a raise fold situation if ever there was one

your problem is you're either flipping or in deep shit. Think about your opponent's likely holdings.

1. Something like AcKd
2 overcards with a flush draw. You're about 50/50

2. Something like QdQs
Overpair. Youre fucked if they decide to play with you

3. Something like AcQc
Nut flush. You're done. Unlikely because would he really pot it?

4. Something like 9d9h
A set. You're in deep trouble

5. Something you beat. AhKh (2 overs), ThTd (worse overpair). You're about 75% to win against those hands

I hate to call because if you commit to calling 3 streets you'll lose heaps against the hands that beat you and win minimum against the stuff you beat (they would probably lay off). There are also too many cards that will freak you out on the turn or river.

If you raise to $21, then you might force an overpair with no club, or something in (5), to fold. Everything else will just push all in. Again, whether you call or fold you're in big big trouble. Therefore, given your opponent's range of 16/7 I would fold. I don't think it's a close decision either, but feel free to disagree.

The problem I have is that you're not actually beating hands like QQ or AK with one club which is probably the most likely holdings based on the action so far. With AA I would call because now there's a realistic range that you beat and you want to win the most against those hands while losing the least to the made flush or made set.
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well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
 
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Xanadu
Old 12-14-2006, 03:22 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I agree. It's just way too risky to get involved here. It may be about 50/50 whether you are ahead or not here, but how are you ever really going to know where you are at? I raise preflop too. But calling occassionally here isn't bad.
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 12-14-2006, 04:52 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I agree with you guys. I came to the same conclusion that making a call here would be pretty dangerous. Even if another club comes to I really want to get involved with a jack high flush....not really. My weak overpair is not good enough to win a lot of money but I sure as hell could lose a lot of money. I wound up laying this hand down.

Seems like this is the first time my action has been the same as what people are recommending. Is it possible I am becoming a better poker player?

Thanks for the input guys.

Good luck.
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Wooderson
Old 12-14-2006, 06:12 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Let's take this situation and rewind to pre-flop play.

Should hero re-raise to about $9 or just cold-call it as played?
I'd like to meet Jesus. Not because people claim he was the son of god, but because he could turn water into wine. A man like that is good to know, because you never know when you'll need a bottle of wine or an extra nail.
 
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Reidak
Old 12-14-2006, 06:16 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by salsa4ever
a raise fold situation if ever there was one

your problem is you're either flipping or in deep shit. Think about your opponent's likely holdings.

1. Something like AcKd
2 overcards with a flush draw. You're about 50/50

2. Something like QdQs
Overpair. Youre fucked if they decide to play with you

3. Something like AcQc
Nut flush. You're done. Unlikely because would he really pot it?

4. Something like 9d9h
A set. You're in deep trouble

5. Something you beat. AhKh (2 overs), ThTd (worse overpair). You're about 75% to win against those hands

I hate to call because if you commit to calling 3 streets you'll lose heaps against the hands that beat you and win minimum against the stuff you beat (they would probably lay off). There are also too many cards that will freak you out on the turn or river.

If you raise to $21, then you might force an overpair with no club, or something in (5), to fold. Everything else will just push all in. Again, whether you call or fold you're in big big trouble. Therefore, given your opponent's range of 16/7 I would fold. I don't think it's a close decision either, but feel free to disagree.

The problem I have is that you're not actually beating hands like QQ or AK with one club which is probably the most likely holdings based on the action so far. With AA I would call because now there's a realistic range that you beat and you want to win the most against those hands while losing the least to the made flush or made set.
id just like to hijack here for a second..

i think this post by salsa has to be one of the best that i have seen so far in terms of clear analysis. i have major problems with this precise situation, post really helped me figure it out a bit more.

Back to the post, id be raise/folding here.
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Percival
Old 12-16-2006, 09:40 PM #7 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wooderson
Let's take this situation and rewind to pre-flop play.

Should hero re-raise to about $9 or just cold-call it as played?
I'd like to know the answer to this question as well. Seems to me, that a pre-flop re-raise would give hero a much better feel for where he stands in this hand, and would be a lot more aggressive than a call. If there is a re-raise here villain can either call, fold, or re-raise again most likely by pushing. If I am villain and I have AA or KK, I push. If I have AKs or QQ I call, anything less and I probably fold. With a re-raise pre-flop villain is also much less likely to bet so much on that flop unless he really has something.

Still very new and learning. Would like to hear more about this from others.
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Pelion
Old 12-16-2006, 09:47 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I just dump it. Alot of decent players probably wont even cbet here with AK since there are so many draws + hands that beat him that youll call with. I think you are at best a coinflip and most of the time way behind. His bet also looks like a protection bet so I wouldnt be suprised to see AA/set here most of the time.
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andy-akb
Old 12-17-2006, 12:47 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
I just dump it. Alot of decent players probably wont even cbet here with AK since there are so many draws + hands that beat him that youll call with. I think you are at best a coinflip and most of the time way behind. His bet also looks like a protection bet so I wouldnt be suprised to see AA/set here most of the time.
If a flop cbet gets overpairs to fold, wouldnt it be a good spot to bet?
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Sprayed
Old 12-17-2006, 02:39 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 I would rather reraise preflop. As played you should fold unless you have some serious reads. I wouldn't want to play a big pot with this hand in this situation.
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Pelion
Old 12-17-2006, 11:42 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
I just dump it. Alot of decent players probably wont even cbet here with AK since there are so many draws + hands that beat him that youll call with. I think you are at best a coinflip and most of the time way behind. His bet also looks like a protection bet so I wouldnt be suprised to see AA/set here most of the time.
If a flop cbet gets overpairs to fold, wouldnt it be a good spot to bet?
a flop cbet doesnt get overpairs to fold against most players. Im not most players.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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donkbee
Old 12-17-2006, 08:51 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Im not most players.
correct. pelion = tightest 6 max player in the world.



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