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suddenly i realize i'm very confused.

  
 
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Ragnar4
Old 01-11-2009, 06:02 AM     Post subject: suddenly i realize i'm very confused. #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($3.77)
BB ($10.07)
UTG ($4.90)
UTG+1 ($5)
Hero (MP1) ($14.50)
MP2 ($5.70)
CO ($10.27)
Button ($10.53)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8, 8
UTG calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.25, 4 folds, BB raises to $0.70, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.45

Flop: ($1.47) J, J, 2 (2 players)
BB bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.97) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.97) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $2.97 | Rake: $0.10

Villain is a straightfoward 15/10 tagg over 150 hands.

On the turn he flipped his hand up. So I realize I'm in a dilemma.
The Fundamental reason I bet is to get better hands to fold, and worse hands to call.

This guy won't call a nickle, but I can't let him hit his ace or king.

Someone's wrong.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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amifat
Old 01-11-2009, 06:24 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I'm just chucking this out there but how about raising the flop or betting the turn? ill go into more detail soon just not on comp atm
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Ragnar4
Old 01-11-2009, 06:28 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Because raising the flop never causes a better hand to fold in this spot, nor does betting the turn.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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tunah
Old 01-11-2009, 06:32 AM     Post subject: Re: suddenly i realize i'm very confused. #4 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
This guy won't call a nickle, but I can't let him hit his ace or king.
Or ten, right?

Quote:
The Fundamental reason I bet is to get better hands to fold, and worse hands to call.
This is only possible because poker is a game of incomplete information. Here you know what he has, and I think he knows what you have, so it's not going to be possible.

The fundamental fundamental reason you bet has to be to increase your expected value, right?
If you check turn and river you have 70% of the pot.
If you bet turn and he folds you have 100%.
If you bet turn and he calls you've gained 70% of whatever was added.
So you bet turn.

edit: to be clear, just talking about the game theory after he shows his hand, I'm sure spenda's right about the flop.
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amifat
Old 01-11-2009, 07:01 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amifat
I'm just chucking this out there but how about raising the flop or betting the turn? ill go into more detail soon just not on comp atm
The more i think about what i said the more i wish i never said it, lol

tunah seems to be accurate, in this situation isnt checking down to the river ideal? or maybe betting the river based on what tunah said?
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AnTman_69
Old 01-11-2009, 07:48 AM #6 (permalink)  
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well played
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bigspenda73
Old 01-11-2009, 08:21 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 Folding the flop and not thinking much about it either
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HarleyGuy13
Old 01-11-2009, 08:58 PM     Post subject: Re: suddenly i realize i'm very confused. #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tunah
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnar4
This guy won't call a nickle, but I can't let him hit his ace or king.
Or ten, right?

Quote:
The Fundamental reason I bet is to get better hands to fold, and worse hands to call.
This is only possible because poker is a game of incomplete information. Here you know what he has, and I he knows what you have, so it's not going to be possible.

The fundamental fundamental reason you bet has to be to increase your expected value, right?
If you check turn and river you have 70% of the pot.
If you bet turn and he folds you have 100%.
If you bet turn and he calls you've gained 70% of whatever was added.
So you bet turn.

edit: to be clear, just talking about the game theory after he shows his hand, I'm sure spenda's right about the flop.
Really good explanation IMO
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swiggidy
Old 01-12-2009, 12:45 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 It's easy to say call flop because "it's only 75c". But also realize it's 25bb.

Without a read 100bb deep I just fold to the 3bet. If he's only raising 10% what do you think his 3bet range is? This deep you can still call and set hunt, especially vs a tight opponent.
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animal_chin
Old 01-12-2009, 04:14 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Folding the flop and not thinking much about it either
This is my line as well.


I don't understand why you call the flop raise. Other stuff he bets the flop with has you crushed, like QQ, KK and AA. You should call preflop with the intention of hitting a set or folding because you have the implied odds to do so. So why call a flop bet without your set? Yes you may have been right in this situation, but there are 16 combos of AK and 18 combos all to gather of AA, KK and QQ so you're crushed here more than half the time, if he is 3 betting a normal range here.
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bigspenda73
Old 01-12-2009, 04:32 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 what sucks is that you're turning a +EV spot PF into a -EV spot if you're going to float someone's 3betting range at 5nl on this flop.

Instead of calling with 88 PF getting some nice implied odds you can now tack on an additional 25bbs if you're going to continue, thus slashing your implied odds.

You cannot have it both ways in my mind, you called PF b/c you thought his range was basically QQ+ and you felt you could win a big pot had you hit a set. However, you cannot then widen his range post-flop because you don't feel like folding.
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Ragnar4
Old 01-12-2009, 05:46 AM #12 (permalink)  
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That's a really good explanation Spenda.. thank you

I guess I still struggle with even running my own actions through some sort of analytical paradigm.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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hangchiong
Old 01-12-2009, 12:18 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
what sucks is that you're turning a +EV spot PF into a -EV spot if you're going to float someone's 3betting range at 5nl on this flop.

Instead of calling with 88 PF getting some nice implied odds you can now tack on an additional 25bbs if you're going to continue, thus slashing your implied odds.

You cannot have it both ways in my mind, you called PF b/c you thought his range was basically QQ+ and you felt you could win a big pot had you hit a set. However, you cannot then widen his range post-flop because you don't feel like folding.
thanks for this spendaaaa.after reviewing some of my HH,i seem to be losing 25BB due to floating because i tend to widen their range from JJ+ to AT+,KQ+ and so on.
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kfaess
Old 01-12-2009, 04:09 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
tunah wrote:
Ragnar4 wrote:
This guy won't call a nickle, but I can't let him hit his ace or king.

Or ten, right?

Quote:
The Fundamental reason I bet is to get better hands to fold, and worse hands to call.

This is only possible because poker is a game of incomplete information. Here you know what he has, and I he knows what you have, so it's not going to be possible.

The fundamental fundamental reason you bet has to be to increase your expected value, right?
If you check turn and river you have 70% of the pot.
If you bet turn and he folds you have 100%.
If you bet turn and he calls you've gained 70% of whatever was added.
So you bet turn.

edit: to be clear, just talking about the game theory after he shows his hand, I'm sure spenda's right about the flop.


Really good explanation IMO
The way I see it:
The fundamental reason to bet is to induce your opponents to make mistakes. If you think that he absolutely has AK and will continue on the turn when you make a bet, then make the bet that will maximize your expectation for the bet. He has 10 outs (3 aces, 3 kings, 4 tens) assuming that he does in fact have AK. So you bet enough to make drawing to those outs a bad play but a play that he would still make.

If you bet the turn and he calls then you do not necessarily have 70% of the larger pot because he may hit his card/bluff you off your hand. I feel like in order to make a calculation like that you have to consider every possible scenario.

I agree with what spenda said about sets.
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borges
Old 01-12-2009, 11:12 PM #15 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by animal_chin
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Folding the flop and not thinking much about it either
This is my line as well.


I don't understand why you call the flop raise. Other stuff he bets the flop with has you crushed, like QQ, KK and AA. You should call preflop with the intention of hitting a set or folding because you have the implied odds to do so. So why call a flop bet without your set? Yes you may have been right in this situation, but there are 16 combos of AK and 18 combos all to gather of AA, KK and QQ so you're crushed here more than half the time, if he is 3 betting a normal range here.
Can this really be the explanation for why we should fold the flop???
Let's suppose that if villian has AK we know that he will continue bet the flop and then give up on turn. If he bets the turn, we know that he has QQ+ and we can fold. (This sort of knowledge isn't very realistic but just for arguments sake...) OK then when he leads out on the flop if we call we win $1.47 + $.75 if he has AK and we lose $.75 if he
has QQ+. Thus the EV of the call is

16/(16+18) [1.47 + .75] - 18/(16+18) [ .75] = $.65

This of course is positive EV, right???
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bigspenda73
Old 01-12-2009, 11:57 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 what if he barrels the turn with AK and we fold 88?

he also has 25% equity if we're going to check back the turn with 88

what if he c/c's the turn with QQ-AA and we mistakenly bet 88 thinking he has AK.
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tunah
Old 01-13-2009, 02:48 AM #17 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by kfaess
The way I see it:
The fundamental reason to bet is to induce your opponents to make mistakes. If you think that he absolutely has AK
He flipped his hand up, so he definitely has AK and he knows you know that.

Quote:
and will continue on the turn when you make a bet, then make the bet that will maximize your expectation for the bet. He has 10 outs (3 aces, 3 kings, 4 tens) assuming that he does in fact have AK. So you bet enough to make drawing to those outs a bad play but a play that he would still make.
Right, his optimal strategy is to call just enough to have pot odds to hit his pair on the next card. But he's not playing that strategy, he's playing check/fold. Against which your optimal strategy is to bet.

Quote:
If you bet the turn and he calls then you do not necessarily have 70% of the larger pot because he may hit his card/bluff you off your hand. I feel like in order to make a calculation like that you have to consider every possible scenario.
On average you have 70% of the larger pot. He can't bluff you off your hand if you know his cards.

That point about widening people's ranges postflop is interesting, I'm pretty sure I do that when trying to talk myself into a call with a marginal hand.
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kfaess
Old 01-13-2009, 04:46 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 lol sorry I completely misunderstood this thread. I thought by "flipped his hand up" it was meant that he would only take this line with AK and so we pretty much knew what he had.

How do you flip your hand up on pokerstars in the middle of a hand? I thought that was illegal?
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