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chincheck
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06-19-2008, 11:15 PM
Post subject: Stupid Question RE: Odds
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 38
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This is probably a stupid question, but wth.
Here is an example of what I have read in the forums:
"You're getting 2.8:1 odds to call opp's AI, and your hand is about 40% to win."
The part I don't get is how odds work together with a hands % to win in deciding to call. Is there a link that explains this relationship?
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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If the chance of you winning is greater than the % of money you're putting into the pot, then you're making a profit.
Suppose in some spot you have a 50% chance of winning. It's e $25 to call in a pot of $50. You'll be putting in 33% of the pot, which is less than the 50% of the time you believe you'll win, so you'll be +EV.
The basic application of this for beginners is learning pot odds, implied odds, and counting outs and translating that deciding if you should or shouldn't continue with draws.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Erpel
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 605
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Worth noting is that odds and %chance to win are different ways of expressing the same thing. You could reverse those types of notation and have it mean the same thing. 40% chance to win is the same as having 1.5 to 1 odds against you winning. 2.8 to 1 odds from the pot means you are break-even if you win 26.3% of the time.
The above is stated somewhat clumsily mainly because I am not comfortable with odds terminology. I know that you can lay odds, take odds, have odds for, odds against and being odds-on - and what it all means I only have a flimsy understanding of. I do begin to have something of a basic grasp of the odds mathematics.
Pot odds: The pot is $3 and you have to pay $1 to come along (and that ends all the action) - that means you get 3-1 odds from the pot. When converting from an odds notation to a % notation you have to make some adjustments to the numbers. It should be obvious from my example here that when you call $1 the pot grows to $4, and yet we always say that you risk $1 to win $3 - not $4. An odds notation has a number of useful properties that makes it immediately applicable. Having played with odds a bit I know intuitively from looking at this example that if I take this bet 4 times, win 1 and lose 3 I will be breakeven. That means if my chance to win is 1 in 4 or 25% I am breakeven. It means that if my odds of winning are 3-1 against - I win 1 in 4, giving me a 25% chance of winning and being breakeven on the bet. That +/-1 when converting to or from odds is crucial to get right.
Some people find it easier to convert the pot odds to a % to win necessary to be breakeven notation - others do it the other way around. In your example you can translate 40% chance to win as 1.5-1 odds against (win chance) | 100 / 40 = 2.5 | 2.5 -1 = 1.5 | and if they win more than $1.5 per $1 they put in (like $2.8 in your example) - it's a bet with positive expected value (+EV). In your example you can translate 2.8-1 into 26.3% | 2.8 + 1 = 3.8 | 1 / 3.8 = 0.263 = 26.3% | say it is the amount of the time you need to win for the bet of calling $1 to win $2.8 to be breakeven. And since you win 40% of the time, which is more than 26.3% of the time, it is a profitable bet for you to invest your money in.
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chincheck
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 38
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These explanations were very helpful. Thanks!
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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If only there were a post about simple poker math people who play poker need to know..
Someone should get on that. Spoon?
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