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LucifersGhost
Old 03-27-2005, 02:12 PM     Post subject: Strange question ... #1 (permalink)  

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This may seem a bit odd, but Im curious of this due to what I am seeing through my own play.

I tend to play a lot of flops, probably about 60 - 65% or so. However, no matter what my hole cards are, it seems that so rarely do I flop a matching card.

So, my question is very open ended. Given any two hole cards, what are the odds that you flop a matching card?

Uhh .. thanks in advance :P

LG
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Old 03-27-2005, 02:19 PM #2 (permalink)  
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41% that you will flop one matching card with any 2 different hole cards (not a pocket pair).
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LucifersGhost
Old 03-27-2005, 02:36 PM #3 (permalink)  

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Man, am I NOT hitting something on the flop 41% of the time. I'll say closer to 25% .. *grrrr*
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Fnord
Old 03-27-2005, 02:50 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dwarfman
41% that you will flop one matching card with any 2 different hole cards (not a pocket pair).
Sounds too high...

2 hole cards

50 cards left in the deck

6 that hit your hand

44/50 = 0.88 miss the first card
43/49 = 0.878 miss the second card
42/48 = 0.875 miss the third card
0.676 multiply all 3, for the odds of missing all 3 cards
0.324 inverse is the chance of hitting the flop

You will pair one of your unpaired hole cards 32.4% of the time.


You should be seeing 15-30% of flops in an 8-10 handed game. The more hands you play, the less of a pre-flop edge you'll tend to have and hence have to overcome post-flop.
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Greedo017
Old 03-27-2005, 04:14 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 "I tend to play a lot of flops, probably about 60 - 65% or so."

I play a lot of flops too, i sometimes get up between 25%-30%...
i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 03-27-2005, 04:16 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedo017
"I tend to play a lot of flops, probably about 60 - 65% or so."

I play a lot of flops too, i sometimes get up between 25%-30%...
Yah, if you don't know the odds of pairing up, you arn't experienced enough to handle playing 65% of all the flops profitably.

-'rilla

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Pyroxene
Old 03-27-2005, 10:14 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dwarfman
41% that you will flop one matching card with any 2 different hole cards (not a pocket pair).
41% is the chance of flopping a pair counting pairs on the board as pairs (40.408%). The chance of flopping one of your hole cards when you do not hold a pair is 26.939%. Add on to that a 1.347% chance to flop trips to a hole card. Add on to that a 2.02% chance of flopping a pair to each of your hole cards for a concealed two pair. And while you are at it, add on a 0.01% chance of flopping 4 of a kind to one of your hole cards.

Source: Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em Poker, Ken Warren; pg 197-198.
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Pyroxene
Old 03-29-2005, 02:20 AM #8 (permalink)  
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I sat reading Fnord's calculations and I knew they were right, but they were not adding up to the same numbers as in Ken Warren's book. After doing some thinking, I see that Warren has worded something funny in his book that hides a few percent. So, after re-interpreting the text and then comparing to Fnord's math I found the few extra percent. The actual, real, honest to goodness numbers for a non-paired hand are:

The chance of flopping EXACTLY one pair by pairing a hole card: 26.939%
The chance of flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing a hole card AND pairing on the board: 2.02% (this was the hidden 2%.)
The chance of flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards: 2.02%
The chance of flopping EXACTLY trips by flopping two cards to one hole card: 1.347%
The chance of flopping EXACTLY a full house, trips of one hole card and pairing the other: 0.092% (I left this out the first time.)
The chance of flopping EXACTLY four of a kind, three cards to one of your hole cards: 0.01%

That totals 32.428% as Fnord's math correctly predicted.

Source: Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em Poker, Ken Warren; pg 197-198.
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Admerylous
Old 03-29-2005, 06:11 AM #9 (permalink)  
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I bet you're slapping your suspenders over that one.
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evman150
Old 03-29-2005, 08:18 AM     Post subject: Re: Strange question ... #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LucifersGhost
I tend to play a lot of flops, probably about 60 - 65% or so.
Some people have leaks in their game. You my friend, have a waterfall.
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The_Cheat
Old 03-29-2005, 09:29 AM     Post subject: Re: Strange question ... #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evman150
Quote:
Originally Posted by LucifersGhost
I tend to play a lot of flops, probably about 60 - 65% or so.
Some people have leaks in their game. You my friend, have a waterfall.
Hey guys, lets give him the benifit of the doubt. maybe he is playing at three person tables all the time, and is in the blind for 66 percent of hands.
Don't Hate the Playa, Hate the Cheat

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Element187
Old 03-29-2005, 01:38 PM #12 (permalink)  
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you need to get a good hand starting chart that lists the playable hands by position. not the best thing in the world, but works wonders for people who play alot of flops.
"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls
 
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TylerK
Old 03-29-2005, 01:43 PM     Post subject: Re: Strange question ... #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evman150
Quote:
Originally Posted by LucifersGhost
I tend to play a lot of flops, probably about 60 - 65% or so.
Some people have leaks in their game. You my friend, have a waterfall.
nh
TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
 
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Bo G
Old 03-29-2005, 02:50 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 Can you just let me know what site you play and is your handle? lol
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dsaxton
Old 03-31-2005, 06:13 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyroxene
I sat reading Fnord's calculations and I knew they were right, but they were not adding up to the same numbers as in Ken Warren's book. After doing some thinking, I see that Warren has worded something funny in his book that hides a few percent. So, after re-interpreting the text and then comparing to Fnord's math I found the few extra percent. The actual, real, honest to goodness numbers for a non-paired hand are:

The chance of flopping EXACTLY one pair by pairing a hole card: 26.939%
The chance of flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing a hole card AND pairing on the board: 2.02% (this was the hidden 2%.)
The chance of flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards: 2.02%
The chance of flopping EXACTLY trips by flopping two cards to one hole card: 1.347%
The chance of flopping EXACTLY a full house, trips of one hole card and pairing the other: 0.092% (I left this out the first time.)
The chance of flopping EXACTLY four of a kind, three cards to one of your hole cards: 0.01%

That totals 32.428% as Fnord's math correctly predicted.

Source: Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em Poker, Ken Warren; pg 197-198.
Just for the purpose of devil's advocacy, what about flopping a straight?
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Pyroxene
Old 03-31-2005, 05:36 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyroxene
I sat reading Fnord's calculations and I knew they were right, but they were not adding up to the same numbers as in Ken Warren's book. After doing some thinking, I see that Warren has worded something funny in his book that hides a few percent. So, after re-interpreting the text and then comparing to Fnord's math I found the few extra percent. The actual, real, honest to goodness numbers for a non-paired hand are:

The chance of flopping EXACTLY one pair by pairing a hole card: 26.939%
The chance of flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing a hole card AND pairing on the board: 2.02% (this was the hidden 2%.)
The chance of flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards: 2.02%
The chance of flopping EXACTLY trips by flopping two cards to one hole card: 1.347%
The chance of flopping EXACTLY a full house, trips of one hole card and pairing the other: 0.092% (I left this out the first time.)
The chance of flopping EXACTLY four of a kind, three cards to one of your hole cards: 0.01%

That totals 32.428% as Fnord's math correctly predicted.

Source: Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em Poker, Ken Warren; pg 197-198.
Just for the purpose of devil's advocacy, what about flopping a straight?
In the previous odds, your chance of flopping those specific hands are independent of the cards in your hand provided you are not holding a pair.

Straights are a different matter. If there are more than 3 ranks inbetween your hole cards, you have no chance of flopping a straight for instance. Connected cards, like 87, generally have a higher chance of making a straight than one gappers like 86. However, that is not true when the connected cards are very near the edge of the ranks like 32 or KQ.

So, with all that said, here are some standard odds of flopping a straight (including the very small chance that it is also a straight flush if the hole cards are suited, I do not feel like doing the math to remove those.)

Odds of flopping a straight . . .

for connectors from 54 to JT: 1.306% (includes the 0.020% of a straight flush if they are suited)
for one gappers from 53 to QT, and the connectors 43 and QJ: 0.980% (includes the 0.015% of a straight flush if they are suited)
for two gappers from 52 to KT, and the connectors 32 and KQ, and the one gappers 42 and KJ: 0.653% (includes the 0.010% of a straight flush if they are suited)
for three gappers from A5 to AT, and the connectors A2 and AK, and the one gappers A3 and AQ, and the two gappers A4 and AJ: 0.327% (includes the 0.005% of a straight flush if they are suited)

Note: these odds do not affect the previous odds in any way as their is no way to flop a straight AND flop any of the previously mentioned hands.

Odds of flopping an open ended straight draw (but not a straight) . . .

for connectors from 54 to JT: 10.449% (includes 2 double barrelled gut shots)
for one gappers from 53 to QT: 7.184-7.511% (includes 2-3 double barrelled gut shots)
for two gappers from 52 to KT: 3.592-3.918% (includes 1-2 double barrelled gut shots)
for three gappers from A5 to AT: 0.3265-0.653% (includes, and is limited to, 1-2 double barrelled gut shots)

The range on a few entries is caused by card combinations on the edge of the range having 1 less double barrelled gut shot possibility than the rest of the range.

NOTE: Okay, I have checked with a few reference works and my straight numbers are right. I have not found a reference for the OESD numbers yet.

If anyone would like to discuss these numbers drop me a message. I may have incorrectly computed the number of double barrelled gut shots for instance.
Pyroxene
 
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