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martypalin
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12-30-2006, 05:54 PM
Post subject: Stealing the pot percentages
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 64
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I took $25 dollars (i.e not alot) and went to the 0.10/0.25 NL tables at Party Poker JUST to try and steal as many pots as possible by betting big on draws, middle and bottom pairs and nothing. I just know I am being betted out of pots most of the time but I dont want to call them as they invariably hit most of the time.
It turns out you can steal the entire pot about 40/50% of the time. Just betting a massive overaise. I dont know whether people are more reuctant to call when its cash involved not tournament chips or what and I KNOW it isnt a long term plan for poker but I just thought it would be intersting to see. Obviously with me only winning half the time I didnt make a profit but this was mainly when I betted on nothing and not bottom pair or draws.
Has anyone else found they can steal pots at will from a terrible positon?
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click your mouse, lose your house
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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{moved from Playing the Player}
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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I almost always bet (1st to act or checked to) with 2 cards vs 2 or 3 others when the flop comes something terrible like Q72 rainbow or on middle paired flops like 884 rainbow.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Pelion
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01-02-2007, 11:36 AM
Post subject: Re: Stealing the pot percentages
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#4 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martypalin
It turns out you can steal the entire pot about 40/50% of the time. Just betting a massive overaise.
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If you mean what I think you do then its a horrible play.
If your bet is pot-sized then you are getting 1:1 odds on your steal. You need to win 50% of the time to be profitable
If your bet is 1.5 times the pot you are getting 2:3 so you need to win 60% of the time to be profitable (see where im going with this?).
If you are making a "massive overraise" say twice the potsize then you are getting 1:2 so you need to win at least 66% of the time to be profitable. If in reality you are only getting 40-50% when you are raising more than the size of the pot then you are burning money.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Chopper
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01-02-2007, 03:26 PM
Post subject: Re: Stealing the pot percentages
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#5 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
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Originally Posted by martypalin
It turns out you can steal the entire pot about 40/50% of the time. Just betting a massive overaise.
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If you mean what I think you do then its a horrible play.
If your bet is pot-sized then you are getting 1:1 odds on your steal. You need to win 50% of the time to be profitable
If your bet is 1.5 times the pot you are getting 2:3 so you need to win 60% of the time to be profitable (see where im going with this?).
If you are making a "massive overraise" say twice the potsize then you are getting 1:2 so you need to win at least 66% of the time to be profitable. If in reality you are only getting 40-50% when you are raising more than the size of the pot then you are burning money. |
awesome reply...thank you
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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martypalin
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 64
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Yes thanks for pointing out what I outlined in capitals in the first post.
I did say it's far from my normal play and I just wanted to blow the $25 I had spare. I was simply saying I play conservatively normally and wait for top pair good kicker at least because I play cynically - i.e 'iv got three of a kind but did he catch that straight?'
The post was about how often I found I could steal pots not by holding even a semi useful hand but betting people out of it representing the absolute nuts EVERYTIME. I was posting to say it worked about 45-50% therefore would my play improve if I bet more often on marginal hands not just great hands?
Sorry if I'm talking to people by far my superior but I've only been playing poker a few months. Just asking advice
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click your mouse, lose your house
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flyingPenguin
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Sydney
Posts: 193
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Yes. Betting/raising your draws/air at the right times and the right amount will increase your profit. You need to use reads, experience, and a bit of maths to work out what the right times and amounts are.
If you keep all bets/raises about the same, it be difficult to put you on a hand. E.g. if you bet 3/4 pot with sets on the flop all the time and opps always fold, start betting 3/4 pot on the flop with flush draws. If they're still always folding, add in straight draws, etc. On the other hand, if opps always call you might want to bet/raise only with strong hands. That's where reads come in handy.
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