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Robb

01-04-2010, 06:44 AM Post subject: Stealing from the CO

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I think we all know the basics: stealing is great. But let's dig a bit deeper. What about the math, the EV stuff, and what about the CO?

In my 50nl 6m games at Full Tilt, well over half the players are TAGG-regs who THINK they can play exploitively, 3b light correctly and make the proper adjustments. They're 18/16/3 types who flat call about 8% of the time and with 6% 3b stats that mean they resteal about 10% of the time they're in the blinds and a steal-happy BTN raises.

Since they 3bet more vs. steals and tend to call wider, as well, let's assume that Hero is BTN and that the SB and BB both flat call with 10% of their hands and 3bet with another 10%.

BTN Steal Success

So Hero wins 1.5 BB any time both blinds fold. Both blinds are TAGG's who by assumption will:

80% Fold
10% Call
10% 3bet

So they both fold 64% of the time ( 0.8 * 0.8 ). One or the other 3bet's 18% of the time ( 0.1 + 0.8 * 0.1 = 0.1 + 0.08 ). That leaves some squeezes we haven't accounted for (say 2%) with the rest being 1 or 2 callers (say 16%).

Assume Hero ditches to any squeeze or 3bet, and loses 3 BB's. For the moment, let's assume Hero breaks even when called since he has position, even though he'll most often has the worse preflop hand. Then the EV calculation is:

EV(both fold) = 0.64 * 1.5 BB = 0.96 BB
EV(3b/sqz) = 0.2 * (-3.0 BB) = -0.6 BB
EV(call[s]) = 0.16 * (?? BB) = 0 BB (by assumption)

So Hero makes 0.96 - 0.60 = 0.36 BB profit for every steal attempt from the BTN (36 bb/100 winrate). But then the question arises: what is the likely EV of trying to steal with crap cards and getting called in at least one spot?

I used the HEM "steal attempted" filter to analyze my last 9k 50n 6m HH's. I attempted to steal 1330 times, 1001 of which were from the CO or BTN (SB steals are a bit different dynamic because Hero is oop any time the steal isn't successful).

For those 1001 hands, I won $409.03 (81.8 bb/100 winrate).

Of those 1001 hands, I saw the flop 327 times. (Used HEM "more filters" tab: SawFlop = True). Remember that the "folds to 3bet" losses are included above, so these are just the times I had to play a pot postflop after being the first to raise in the CO or BTN.

For those 327 hands, I won $178.30 (109.05 bb/100).

Interestingly, the winrate was higher when I got called than when I was cbetting. Of those 327 hands, I filtered for when a cbet was possible, which turned out to be 229 times.

For those 229 hands, I won $23.35 (20.39 bb/100).

Again, it's interesting that the times when villain donk-bet the flop showed a HIGHER winrate than when he checked to me. (Check raises are often good to bluff or semi-bluff with if you're in the blinds here and being stolen from, btw!!) These samples are smallish, so I don't want to act like this is ironclad. But it is interesting. FWIW, I also filtered on HU flops vs. 3-way flops, but the winrate in bb/100 is roughly the same.

The whole point is that the red ?? in the steal EV formula likely represent a positive number and mean we can steal more often and against less TAGGish villains.

CO Steal Success

The next thought that occurred to me was this: if I can be profitable when I'm "caught stealing" (but flatted, not raised), then what are the EV implications for the CO? Well, I reran the filters to get this breakdown: 482 CO steal attempts.

For those 482 hands, I won $83.25 (34.54 bb/100).

Of those, I saw the flop 167 times, with $25.50 lost (-30.54 bb/100). I was able to cbet 123 times, and lost $43.70 (-71.06 bb/100) on those.

It should be obvious the difference is due to the BTN jumping in the way. So if we're stealing from the CO, we need not just a TAGG, but a nit, someone who will fold his BTN a huge majority of the time. But after that, we're golden since the CO steal is much less often 3b against. When you steal from the BTN, it's obvious what you're doing, right? When you steal from the CO, if the villains in the blinds aren't checking popup stats, they think you might have a hand. So they call and 3bet less often. Let's say they flat and 3bet 8% of the time each (they probably don't do it quite this much, especially 3b, but it will keep our EV estimates conservative).

Then, the probability of the blinds folding/calling/3betting (given that the BTN has already) can be recalculated:

Both fold: 71% of the time ( 0.84 * 0.84 )
At least one 3bet's: 15% of the time ( 0.08 + 0.84 * 0.08.
Squeezes (say 3%) with the rest being 1 or 2 callers (~ 11%).

As long as the BTN folds, the steal has the same EV against the blinds. So let's recalculate the EV of a BTN steal with these percentages so that we have an idea of how often we need the BTN to fold so that we can show a profit.

EV(both fold) = 0.71 * 1.5 BB = 1.06 BB
EV(3b/sqz) = 0.18 * (-3.0 BB) = -0.44 BB
EV(call[s]) > 0 (by analysis above).

So the EV of a CO steal when the BTN folds is now 0.62 BB, or at least 62 bb/100.

Suppose that Hero just folds postflop if the BTN calls and no one raises. Then Hero loses 3.5 BB any time the BTN 3bets or calls and wins .62 BB (his steal EV against the blinds) any time the BTN folds. Let F = BTN fold percentage, and then:

Overall EV (CO steal) = F * 0.62 - ( 1 - F ) * 3.5 = 4.12 F - 3,

which is positive provided F > .85. So if Hero can expect the BTN to fold at least 85% of the time, he can steal WITH ANY TWO CARDS AND SHOW A PROFIT. Of course, I don't actually recommend stealing with any two - even the most obtuse villains will catch on to that. But you can steal with a pretty wide range, say 40% or more.

Stealing in Practice

The key to "stealing" effectively obviously hinges on reading when opponents are unlikely to call or 3bet and then expanding our range to many (but not really any two). And stealing from the CO is a good idea especially with a TAGG BTN, since they don't tend call or 3b wide enough to dent our profits.

The biggest difficulty with stealing comes from the marginal hands played badly, so you have to have the discipline to fold to lots of 3bets. If you try a steal with K2s and get 3bet by a TAGG BB, you've gotta ditch. NH to him, especially if he's 3betting light. He made the right play, but he's probably (if he's like the TAGG's I play against) not capable of making a big enough adjustment to deny you profits from steals. Where he'll kill your profits is the big hands you should have folded either preflop or on the flop, but that you couldn't get away from.

So if we're going to try stealing 35-40% or more of the time in the CO/BTN (which is probably a good idea), you've got to get away from hands where we're really only likely to win small pots and lose bigger ones.

By the way, for anyone interested, my stealing rate in the above 9k hand sample was 49%, or 41% CO, 56% BTN, and 59% SB for 1330 total steal attempts, with a "steal success" rate of 59%. Overall, I was up $460 from steal attempts (69.2 bb/100). That was $50 in the SB (31 bb/100), $83 in the CO (34.5 bb/100) and $326 from the BTN (125.7 bb/100).

When I filtered, I found I was folding to more than 75% of resteals (3bets) I faced. When I called, I basically broke even (+$4 over 41 hands). When I 4b, I won nicely ($75 over 15 hands). So overall resteals suck, but I was picking the right places to play back.

Just some stuff I was working on lately and thought I'd share. Be interested to hear your thoughts. I would also be interested to hear from someone who has played the same stealing ranges over a larger sample at the same stakes. I may dig deeper into my past HH's if this thread goes anywhere.

That's enough for now - jeez I just realized it's 2:45 AM and I have to be at work tomorrow.

Good luck at the tables.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

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PlayToWin

01-04-2010, 11:42 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Posts: 606

Great post with a lot of info to ponder. I recently looked at my Steal% from CO and Button (instead of total steal%) and saw that I stole 19% from the CO and 38% from the button over 4400 hands. It looks like I should attempt more steals from the CO and get the ratio a little more even, given a nit on the Button.

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Robb

01-05-2010, 12:08 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

Yeah, internet pokerz have changed. I'm seeing several 6/6/2 nits at my 50nl 6max tables each session. Good grief - how can you profit at 6max and play that tight? I've seen several of them go 30+ hands without one vpip. How can you sit out 5 full rounds? If get one of those guys immediately to my left, I'm stealing 45% or more from the CO. Basically, I get to play the BTN twice each round.

When they're more like 12/10, you can still open up a bit in the CO, but also remember if you have a 35/5 to your left you have to play tighter, more like your EP/MP range. Otherwise, you're always playing hands oop.

Anyway, yeah, even at FR you could steal a bit wider from the CO than 20%, especially with tighties to the left. The BTN ~40% looks really good, tho. I'm probably overdoing the whole stealing thing right now, just trying to steal like a monkey. I'll calm down and optimize soon.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

dranger7070

01-05-2010, 01:53 AM

#4 (permalink)

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dranger7070 has a little shameless behaviour in the past

This is an awesoem post robb, I'm going to look through my own filters and see what kind of numbers i come up with. Thanks for this.

eragotte

01-05-2010, 02:08 AM

#5 (permalink)

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what size bet is your standard steal at 50nl?

edit: 3bb from the math i can see but do you adjust this with one limper or do u only steal when u get the chance to open the pot, also i like to open always for 4bb, i have no real reasoning for it though so is this dumb?

eragotte

01-05-2010, 10:11 PM

#6 (permalink)

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lol i was looking at my stats and im 21/19.5 from the cuttoff but 47/41 on the button lolll - i should start CO stealing more

Robb

01-06-2010, 01:20 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by eragotte

I open-raise from the BTN w/ 3 BB, from CO/MP/EP w/ 3.5 BB (and hence the funky change in the maths you noted), and open-raise 4 BB when stealing from the SB. A lot of FTR guys had that "open raise for less in LP" long before I did. The key idea is that we actually WANT to see flops in position, except with our very worst hands.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

OhioRounder

01-06-2010, 02:00 AM

#8 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jan 2010

Posts: 171

I'm thieving every damn time from the CO if button and blinds are even a hint of nitty. Folding to 3bets with trash is easy and full ring nits don't adjust nearly enough.

Robb

01-06-2010, 03:15 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by OhioRounder

I'm thieving every damn time from the CO if button and blinds are even a hint of nitty. Folding to 3bets with trash is easy and full ring nits don't adjust nearly enough.

I thought EVERYONE at FR was nitty.

LOL. Actually, it's good to know this works for FR. I only play 6m, but even in the more open short-handed games, folks don't defend/resteal often enough to force you to quit stealing VERY light.

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

spoonitnow

01-06-2010, 04:05 AM

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tl;dr

Something about opening up from the CO and HJ that a lot of people don't think about is targeting bad players in the blinds. If a fish is in the 2nd or 3rd seat to your left, it typically means you won't get to play a lot of hands in position against them. If the other players left to act are tight or tightish, however, you can open up to exploit them since you'll get to play hands in position.

While not related to this post, similar logic applies when opening in earlier positions and wanting to open up your opening range.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

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Rule # 1: don't ask questions

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I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.

Robb

01-06-2010, 04:35 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

tl;dr

Means "too long, didn't read" right?

lol at tl;dr coming from a guy who posts mass epic threads while 24 tabling and cooking Chelle an omelet. Some of us monotask. You could at least tl;skim

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

spoonitnow

01-06-2010, 06:12 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

tl;dr

Means "too long, didn't read" right?

lol at tl;dr coming from a guy who posts mass epic threads while 24 tabling and cooking Chelle an omelet. Some of us monotask. You could at least tl;skim

Dumbass math people can't take a joke because they have no people skills GOD

eragotte

01-06-2010, 08:44 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

cool, ima start raising 3bb opens from co and button and 4bb from utg and mp consistently (i never do 3.5 at 25nl).

Erpel

01-19-2010, 12:50 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Awesome post Robb - and Spoon as usual takes it a bit further. Along the lines of Spoon's post that's my thinking if I'm sitting at a table of nits with one fish who is to my immediate right. Even UTG (I play 6m) I can raise all kinds of promising/speculative hands in an attempt to steal the button and play a hand in position against the horrible player. Often the later position nits give me more credit by having raised UTG instead of thinking that I'm already adjusting to their nittiness and the horrible player in the blinds.

Use judiciously.

Regarding raise sizes and positions. (eragotte)

I think there is an argument for using different pre-flop raise sizes in the different positions. Within a single position it is reasonable to say that a raise size corresponds to a hand range. Like if I am to insta-open all in that raise size corresponds to a range of AA. Maybe KK. Similarly a very low raise size corresponds to a very wide range.

In early position we tend to play a narrow and very strong range. Since we generally end up playing post flop against a weaker range we want the pot to be as big as possible when we see a flop. So we end up raising big in early position. In late position our range is weaker, when we see a flop we will be playing in position and part of our profit comes from stealing. Small raise sizes steal more effectively (because it costs less when the steal is not immediately successful leading to a bigger overall profit). Post-flop we have position so we can make much more informed decision, we get better value out of implied odds situations etc - it all adds up to us wanting more money behind relative to the pot size on the flop. So we raise smaller.

I have seen suggestions of 2.5bb for BTN, 3bb for CO, 3.5bb for HJ and 4bb for UTG in 6m. Often I do 3bb from BTN/CO and 4bb from HJ/UTG. Some suggest going down to 2.25bb on the BTN. To be fair you will also want to vary your size based on the types of players you have in the blinds. Like raising bigger and less often if you have calling stations.

Stealing from SB I can see arguments both ways. You are OOP so want to see a fold quite often - however you are only relying on one person to fold and he will do so very frequently so even if you raise very small from SB and fold almost always when called you may still be more profitable this way than raising big.

Robb

01-19-2010, 02:10 PM

#15 (permalink)

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I don't like raise sizes of less than 3BB, though they can effective. If anyone's paying attention, the price is too good. When I see the small open-raise, I'm doubling (or more) my 3bet range and increasing my calling range a ton.

But even at 50nl, most regs don't adjust to the smaller raise sizes, so they work OK. I've misclicked and min-opened and managed to steal the blinds from the BTN a couple times. Jeez, what can the BB fold getting 3.5 to 1?

My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against

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