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Outlaw
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01-22-2009, 05:36 AM
Post subject: Stats checkup
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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This is over about 7k hands. Running 6.3BB/100. I know its a small sample size, but I only get to play about 500 hands per day and want to make adjustments before I go any further.
My most obvious leak I think is AF and WTSD%
Any tips on improving this? Any other glaring problems?
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
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Your stats look pretty good. I think WTSD% and AF correlate a bit, because if your more aggressive on the flop and turn, you should be getting your opponets to fold more often than if you were to check it down to the river, thus seeing less showdowns.
Just lead more and try and pick up pots where its unlikely your opponents have anything (if they are tight). Just don't bluff the calling stations when you start trying to pick up pots. I usually play FR so I'm not 100% sure on all the stats for 6-max, you look like you're doing good though. I'm sure others might have more to add on this and other things.
Oh BTW you know that red line that is money won without showdown on your money won graph? I'm wondering if yours slopes down or up? Just curious I think I might be onto something with that regarding stats...(I've been doing alot of analysis on PT stats lately and trying to figure out correlations etc. between a number of things).
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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geez your AF is a lot lower than mine. i'm not sure what AF really means though, but mine is like more than double yours
i think you defend the blinds a little too much? i don't like playing a weaker range OOP, as i've started to 3bet really light against button raisers who have att to steal of 35+. flatting can't be the best way to defend against a blind stealer, esp when we're missing flops more often than hitting
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Don't defend too much. You may have the better hand, but he has position which is much more important. 35% steal is not much. Don't 3-bet these guys too light. But yes, 3-bettin is generally better than calling.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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why is your flop AF so low, your cbet is higher than mine
are you calling donk bets? are you calling flop raises?
my default play is to raise small donk bets ATC
I routinely fold to flop raises too
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kettleofish
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Helllllo Richard
Posts: 333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by oskar
35% steal is not much. Don't 3-bet these guys too light. But yes, 3-bettin is generally better than calling.
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35% AtS includes a shittonne of marginal hands that will fold to a 3bet. It's def +ev to be 3betting these types of players until they either stop stealing so much or start 4 betting you.
Also, I really don't think OPs flop AF is too low, esp. given how often he cbets. Is 2.4 considered low now?
Outlaw, definitely call less out of the blinds. I mean, look at your W$WSF from the other positions compared to when you are in blinds. Apart from that nothing else stands out as a glaring leak. Ya your WtSD is a little high, but it's not a massive sample and it's not as if you are consistently showing the worse hand down.
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There's only one system. Bet. Lose. Borrow. Steal. Lose. Take the drugs. Lose. Prison. Death.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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What range do you 3-bet from the bb to someone who steals 35% from the button? What hands do you call?
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kettleofish
Is 2.4 considered low now?
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My flop agression is 4.5, and I c-bet 60%. I don't know what's considered standard though.
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kettleofish
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Helllllo Richard
Posts: 333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by oskar
What range do you 3-bet from the bb to someone who steals 35% from the button? What hands do you call?
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Depends how the villain is postflop, how often he calls 3bets, how deep we are etc. But, assuming 100BB stacks and that the SB folded, I'll work from a starting point of all pairs, AK, some suited connectors and the occasional airball. If it turns out they fold too much I will flat w the stronger part of my range (AJ+,JJ+)because if i 3 bet i'll either fold out worse or be dominated, but I'd start bluffing with trash more. Conversely, if he calls too much, I'll start 3betting more hands for value (AJ+, KQ etc.) but tone down on the bruffing.
The possibilities are endless and constantly fluid, but my point was that somebody with a AtS of 35%+ is generally a good candidate to 3bet light.
Oh and regarding flopAF, mine is much higher than Outlaws as well, but I don't think 2.4 is low necessarily. It'll probably rise naturally if he stops calling so much out of the blinds anyways since he'll be in less marginal spots.
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There's only one system. Bet. Lose. Borrow. Steal. Lose. Take the drugs. Lose. Prison. Death.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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If you have HEM, go to the report tab, click filter:
more than 5 players.
filter by action: raise
more filters: In BB and Steal Attempt=true
If that is really the range you 3-bet to a steal, I'd be surprised if get a positive number there, because not only are most of the hands you 3-bet behind a 35% range, you're also OOP for the rest of the hand - and especially HU position is so much more valuable. This is the main thing you're missing I think. When somebody raises the Button or CO, he's not only betting his hand, but also his position. It makes sense to raise a wide range from LP simply because you'll get to act last on every street.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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Thanks for the input. I don't 3bet from the blinds much because I like the pot small out of position. I call with SCs, small pairs, kq, aj.. I 3bet aq, 88+. Should I instead 3bet all of these hands then lead the flop?
I have actually been working on almost never calling.. making sure I take the lead on the majority of hands. I am finding it has lowered my variance a ton to play this way.
Thanks, iopq for pointing out my flop low flop af. I do think I call too many donk leads.. I should either raise or fold right? I find the majority of players at 10NL don't even know what a donk lead is, they are just thinking on level one and only playing their cards. Should I as a default raise these leads or fold to them at this level?
To answer Micro, the red line slopes down.. should this slope up?
Thanks for all the input guys.
O
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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your on a heater. wtsd 27% and w$@sd 53% = heater
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Outlaw
Thanks for the input. I don't 3bet from the blinds much because I like the pot small out of position. I call with SCs, small pairs, kq, aj.. I 3bet aq, 88+. Should I instead 3bet all of these hands then lead the flop?
I have actually been working on almost never calling.. making sure I take the lead on the majority of hands. I am finding it has lowered my variance a ton to play this way.
Thanks, iopq for pointing out my flop low flop af. I do think I call too many donk leads.. I should either raise or fold right? I find the majority of players at 10NL don't even know what a donk lead is, they are just thinking on level one and only playing their cards. Should I as a default raise these leads or fold to them at this level?
To answer Micro, the red line slopes down.. should this slope up?
Thanks for all the input guys.
O
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I'm not entirely sure, but I've seen it both up and down on winning players. It might be unusual for it to be positive at microstakes but not so much at $200NL+ since showdowns aren't happening every 2 hands, it's a leak to try and push the average micro player out of a hand because they have a pair. If anyone has their red line on their graph at $10NL running steadily upward I'd like to see it and hear about their playing style.
I think it would slope up more if you raised those donk bets. This would up your agg. factor, you'd take down more pots without calling them down to the river to see a showdown, and your WTSD% would decrease a bit. I would imagine betting for thin value opposed to checking rivers would make this go up to because your opponent would be given the option to fold. Just make sure to take note of who folds to raises after min-bet donking the pot and who won't let go of their hand. Some of these guys you can't push off their bet so any raise you do make against these should be for value.
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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I did an 1,800 hand session today and eliminated calling from the blinds, I instead raised almost every time. I ran with total af of 4.4.. so I think that was the leak. I was down almost 2 buy-ins for the session but had 4 coolers. I will keep playing this way for a few thousand more hands and then post the results.
Thanks again!
O
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AFchung
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UCLA
Posts: 1,179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Outlaw
I did an 1,800 hand session today and eliminated calling from the blinds, I instead raised almost every time. I ran with total af of 4.4.. so I think that was the leak. I was down almost 2 buy-ins for the session but had 4 coolers. I will keep playing this way for a few thousand more hands and then post the results.
Thanks again!
O
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get like 10k hands and then post. anything lower than that really can't mean very much
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kettleofish
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Helllllo Richard
Posts: 333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by oskar
If you have HEM, go to the report tab, click filter:
more than 5 players.
filter by action: raise
more filters: In BB and Steal Attempt=true
If that is really the range you 3-bet to a steal, I'd be surprised if get a positive number there, because not only are most of the hands you 3-bet behind a 35% range, you're also OOP for the rest of the hand - and especially HU position is so much more valuable. This is the main thing you're missing I think. When somebody raises the Button or CO, he's not only betting his hand, but also his position. It makes sense to raise a wide range from LP simply because you'll get to act last on every street.
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Your filter leaves me with a 141 hand sample at a whopping -36bb/100! Honestly tho we're going to have to disagree here. I don't think I 3bet enough against habitual stealers, let alone too much. And the statement 'most of the hands you 3bet are behind a 35% range' is just wrong, besides missing the point. I am not 3betting these hands based purelyy on their PF equity against his steal range. But this is a debate for another thread. And btw I know and agree with you about the importance of position.
Outlaw: agree w chung regarding sample size, at least 10k hands. More would be better.
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There's only one system. Bet. Lose. Borrow. Steal. Lose. Take the drugs. Lose. Prison. Death.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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This trend will continue if you keep flatting the hands that have his range crushed but 3-bet connectors. Overall you have to expect to loose money from the bb. Managing to loose less than 100bb/100 should be the goal.
At 50NL I'm loosing -45bb/100 from the bb so far. At lower stakes it was less. I think it's because of the higher ptbb/100 overall.
3-betting all pp's and some sc's against a steal raise by someone with 35% ATS is nothing short of suicidal.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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