Originally Posted by poker_pup

The more I think about it though, the more I think the betting pattern on the turn indicates he's got you beat.

Originally Posted by kmind

what do you mean by 80% hand?

Give some ranges and then you'll get more reviews

Originally Posted by kb coolman

I really don't have much more than top pair, weak kicker. Not a good spot to stack off.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

I'm still a noob but IMO either fold preflop or have a plan preflop. With suited hands like this, with a weak kicker, I play for the flush only. If you don't flop at least 2 more suited cards, I either fold or maybe take a stab with a c-bet and fold if reraised. Of course if your bad kicker hits trips, you're good or if you flop two pair, continue with caution. Otherwise, the bad kicker kills the hand.

Originally Posted by iopq

anyway, the plan is to hit two pair, not trips
if you hit trips try to play for pot control

Originally Posted by kb coolman

Exactly. This is what I get for not playing by the rules...

Originally Posted by Robb

This thread doesn't seem to make any sense to me. I'm felting this against most 10nl opponents. (Any other reads would help, btw.) At 10nl, imo, villains who are 33/14 will play lots of sc's/Axs draws this way. Also, I've seen a lot of A7 and A9 hands played this way. In my view, you're ahead more often than behind. I would felt it, or call the shove.

Also, with trips as with sets, you have 10 outs to the full house on the river which would beat the flush (if it came in).

Last thing, any additional reads on villain would be nice. Is he passive? That would change my mind about the all-in call. I'm worried here against someone who otherwise plays timid. Is he aggressive? Then it's an insta call, imo. What has stacked off with? A lot of 10nl opponents will stack off with 2nd pair. If he's one of them, you've got the nuts with trips and should felt it.

Obviously, the reason you're posting is because you got beat. Don't be too results oriented. He's got a really wide open range limping behind a limper, and he obviously liked the board. But I think his range is wide enough that you're ahead. Lots of big draws haven't gotten there, yet.

IOPQ, playing for pot control against a 33/14 on a drawy board is a good way to give great reverse implied odds to your opponents. And why in the world would 2 pair be better than trips here?

Originally Posted by iopq

1. People don't play draws aggressively in NL10. They usually have it.

Originally Posted by iopq

3. Because if you had made two pair on the turn instead of trips, you'd beat more of your opponent's range.

Originally Posted by iopq

4. I'd rather lose a pot than a stack because in NL bets are more important that pots (whereas in limit, pots are more important than bets)

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm not very good at math

Originally Posted by kettleofish

There isn't a draw in the world that this type of villain is waiting for that turn card to raise and then shove over your 3-bet. Any combo draw that he wants to play fast will be raised on the floop. At best you are hoping to chop w/ another shitty K. XTR nailed it IMO.

Robb, what range are u giving villain that makes this a call? I'm at work so no stove, but a realistic range IMO would include precisely 2 draws (6s8s and 8sTs), and even then i think they could be heaaaaaavily discounted. Even getting roughly 3:1 i think the turn is a fold.

Originally Posted by robb

This is the one the makes absolutely no sense. You see, there's this deal in poker called hand strength, where trips beats two pair. If 2 pair's ahead of x% of his range, trips is ahead of AT LEAST x%. I don't think having 3 fewer combo's of some Kx hands changes that, but I'm not very good at math.

Originally Posted by Robb

Kettle, I'm glad someone's finally talking about ranges. I would be fine hearing that someone thinks I'm wrong if they got specific. On the devil's side, the best feature of 10nl opponents is their willingness to stack off light. If we include only Kx hands that dominate hero plus Axs (spades only), A9o, A7o, the OESD's, 9xs (spades, x>7) and the two sets (full houses), Hero's got 68% equity. I think that's conservative and that some broadways with gutshots/FD's are in there, too. Of course we'll have to discount some of those based on the betting, but that range includes ALL the hands we're scared of even though several of them are unlikely too.

There is another unfortunate problem with the HH - it includes the river card. I think on the turn (before we know that piece of information) lots of Axs +A7 and A9 is in his range. I think other FD's are, as well, though I would discount (some of) them. In my view, a folks are using the river card to reason backwards to the turn action, narrowing the ranges too far.

Originally Posted by kettleofish

LOL A7, i'd chop my balls off if he shows up with A7 here!

Originally Posted by kettleofish

the lightest range we can reasonably give villain:

6s8s, 8sTs, 7x9x, AXs, 9Xs (still not buying this tho really), 77, 99, KX (X can be better or worse than hero's 5 imo. Given action a worse K is more likely than SD/FD).

I'm guessing if u do the math for that range it's still a call? What about if u take out the AXs hands (or at least most of them to account for how unlikely it is).

Originally Posted by iopq

villain doesn't show up with 9x like ever
you know he CALLS 20% of the time preflop
why would he raise with marginal hands post-flop?

doesn't he love calling?

Originally Posted by Robb

Don't play 10nl with a sharp knife nearby.

Funny thing, I'm crazy for thinking about Ax, but no one's admitting that he raises enough preflop that we can't include KJ+. How many total combo's of Kx do you think he can hold here? Why? (BTW, the answer is less than 20 - note that I'm ignoring worse K's since we coin flip with them.)

33/14 is a pretty frisky 10nl player preflop. Seriously, put together a 14% PFR range. Hell, he raises preflop at FR almost as much as I do at 6max. And this fact seriously limits the top end of his Kx range.

Two things about preflop vs. postflop aggression. First, they aren't necessarily correlated. Second, preflop aggression factors have very little to do with how he might play the flop and next to nothing to do with his turn actions.

Villains will show down hands like 9x or Axs on this board. Just check the bad beat forum if you don't believe me.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

you guys are silly the turn def. improves his pot equity a lot

Originally Posted by iopq

it also improves villain's range