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is this the spot to lay down a set?

  
 
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 12-05-2006, 12:26 AM     Post subject: is this the spot to lay down a set? #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($58.95)
Hero ($55.75)
UTG ($21.45)
UTG+1 ($38.20)
MP1 ($49.25)
MP2 ($52.65)
CO ($30.75)
Button ($55.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, 2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2.50) 8, 6, 2 (5 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $2, Button folds.

Turn: ($8.50) 7 (3 players)
SB bets $5.5, Hero raises to $14, MP1 raises to $46.75, SB folds, Hero ...............


And also how should I have played the hand differently. Looking back I probalby should not have raised with the straight draw out there. Does anyone agree with my assesment here? Any commentary on this hand will be greatly appreciated.
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LeFou
Old 12-05-2006, 12:41 AM #2 (permalink)  
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If opp is beating a set I usually expect a smaller raise or even a flat call here.
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 12-05-2006, 12:56 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Oh one more thing villain is pretty passive...14/4 and I have never seen him raise before.
Flopping quads and boats like its my job
 
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givememyleg
Old 12-05-2006, 03:22 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I'm most likely raising the flop.

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thizzSantaCruz
Old 12-05-2006, 06:10 AM #5 (permalink)  
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I wanted to maybe get another caller in there though. Figured The flop was not really dangerous, I mean what are the chances the scare card for the straight drops. It actually crossed my mind to raise but I decided to keep it multi-way.

Do you call here? Do you fold here?
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Margin Of Error
Old 12-05-2006, 06:26 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Raise preflop. Raise the flop. Getting it all in on the turn is a-ok with me.
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 12-05-2006, 06:49 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I find this ammusing, In a previous thread I was taking all kinds of heat for raising with 66. Now everyone is telling me to raise on the blind.

I usually tend to mix it up a bit, allthough on this hand the check was largely influenced by the negative feedback I took from my last thread.
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TLR
Old 12-05-2006, 07:55 AM #8 (permalink)  
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What hand do you think villian has that he called a flop bet with and improved on the turn ?
77 is possible, gutshut str8s are unlikely, I am calling here


 
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givememyleg
Old 12-05-2006, 11:39 AM #9 (permalink)  
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I like raising 22 at any position except out of the blinds, I think preflop is fine.

Set under set happens.... this could be an 87, 99-JJ, strangely played 55, I'm not sure. But regardless I'm not folding here. If he shows 88 or 66 I shriek a bit and say nh... if he shows 77 I kick myself in the face for not raising the flop.

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Miffed22001
Old 12-05-2006, 12:43 PM #10 (permalink)  
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preflop is fine.
Id play the flop the same way i think, we want hands to come in behind us.
Looking at the turn play bottom set probably no good, and i dont think its two pair or a set here.
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jackvance
Old 12-05-2006, 02:01 PM #11 (permalink)  
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So hard to lay down a set, but looks like he made his hand on the turn to me.. hard to fathom how though since he would've called the flop with a gutshot then.
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spoonitnow
Old 12-05-2006, 04:01 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz
I find this ammusing, In a previous thread I was taking all kinds of heat for raising with 66. Now everyone is telling me to raise on the blind.

I usually tend to mix it up a bit, allthough on this hand the check was largely influenced by the negative feedback I took from my last thread.
You took heat for raising in the other thread because there was no point in raising. I'm not sure if I personally would raise in this hand, but raising in this hand would be a lot better than raising in the other hand.

Edit: Oh I didn't answer the original question. I'm okay with getting it all in here because I think it's just as likely some moron is trying to "slowplay" AA as it is for someone to have made a straight here.

Here's a way to make the decision easier: You're getting about 2.3:1 Calling here breaks even if you win 30% of the time, and if you win anymore than that then you're making a profit on this call. I'm pretty sure you'd agree you're winning more than 30% of the time here, so call.
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TLR
Old 12-05-2006, 04:57 PM #13 (permalink)  
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It all depends ofcourse, but unless there are 4 flush or 4 str8 on board calling a push with a set is almost always correct in low limit


 
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Xanadu
Old 12-05-2006, 06:21 PM #14 (permalink)  
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If he has a straight, you are 22.7% to win. You don't have to be ahead very often to call here.
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thizzSantaCruz
Old 12-05-2006, 11:36 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
You took heat for raising in the other thread because there was no point in raising. I'm not sure if I personally would raise in this hand, but raising in this hand would be a lot better than raising in the other hand.
I am not sure I understand this. Wouldn't raising in LP with a small pocket pair be much more profitable than raising on a blind? Or are you saying that a raise out of the blinds can be more scary than a raise on the button and induce some folds? I don't quit understand the reasoning here.




Quote:
If he has a straight, you are 22.7% to win. You don't have to be ahead very often to call here
You know I did not really think about the board pairing in this situation. That is definantly something I need to become aware of, my thinking was that if he had the straight I only have a 2 outer. That is definatly something I need to consider.

Thanks for the feedback guys, I think this is the most knowledge I have learned from a hand history post on here.
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Halv
Old 12-06-2006, 07:26 AM #16 (permalink)  
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I pretty much always check preflop, most often I raise the flop and as played I call the turn with a smile on my face.

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bigslikk
Old 12-06-2006, 07:04 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Guy coulda stuck around wit 9T as overs + gutshot, so made straight or turn-revealed overset make sense. (guy could be overbetting since a 2nd diamond is out). He might also have crap like 79 of diamonds... but not likely. I think 40 bucks behind a reraise means a made one- I'd felt it.
 
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