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spoon and his math...lol.

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Chopper

01-22-2008, 02:51 AM Post subject: spoon and his math...lol.

#1 (permalink)

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Posts: 4,255

i didnt know of a better place to put this because spoonitnow is in this forum quite a bit.

you guys need to be asking him questions right now, imo. he is rivaling the hands that lukie, gabe, et al, used to play when they were on their "binges"...back in the day (like last year or two...lol)

if you want to learn to multi-table efficiently w/o losing profitability, this is the authority to be asking questions to right now. but, please respect his work ethic and dont overload him with pm's. just post responses in his threads. he has been more willing than any other poster lately to provide answers and thought processes.

thanks, spoon, you have helped me personally quite a bit. my guess is you need to be around $20k up this month for your average (of course, we know poker never likes smooth averages).

i'm sure you all know spoon is shooting for $250k this year. and, im sure you have seen him say he thinks he makes close to $120/hr playing 18 tables....winning at about 3.5 ptbb/100 at 200NL.

so, i did the math, and he's pretty much right on (not that i doubted the math...i just had to see for myself). i had him at about $220k, but whatever.

i also did some other math, fwiw. ...calculating yearly incomes at various levels and winrates.

making $2k/yr at 10NL is VERY realistic, if you can keep a 10/100. but, here are some others...

assumptions...50 hands/hr at full ring tables, 35 hrs/wk playing time, 50 week/yr schedule.

25NL 4-tabling...
- @ 5/100...$5k/yr or $100/wk
- @ 3/100...$3k/yr or $60/wk

10NL 4-tabling...
- @ 10/100...$4k/yr or $80/wk
- @ 5/100...$2k/yr or $40/wk

100NL @ 2.5/100...
- 5 tabling...$21,875/yr or $437.50/wk
- 8 tabling...$35,000/yr or $700/wk
- 12 tabling..$52,500/yr or $1,050/wk

none of this include bonuses or RB.

my question is: which is more realistic? 2.5/100 at 100NL, or 5/100 at 25NL?

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

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PapalRage

01-22-2008, 03:09 AM

#2 (permalink)

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5/100 at 25nl is waaay easier than 2.5/100 at 100nl. there are just so many more players at 25nl that will stack off extremely light. thanks for those maths btw.

ndultimate.

daven

01-22-2008, 03:25 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,805

Nice numbers
they tell me:
1) I need to learn to play more tables (currently playing 6 comfortably, will see how many are attainable once this week of no playing is over)
2) Rakeback and/or bonuses are essential
3) There may be a point where it's not really worth moving up in stakes anymore

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

spoonitnow

01-22-2008, 04:14 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Yeah the 250k number was originally based off of getting Supernova Elite, but then I found out I wasn't getting VPPs as quickly as I thought I would. After talking a little to Lukie and a lot of people who went for [and one who made] Supernova Elite in 2007, I decided it would be a better use of my time to cut back on playing and use that time to focus on my health and improving my game. I decided to keep the $250k number as a goal based on hopefully improving as a player as this year progresses and moving up stakes.

I might not make $250k in 2008, but I know I'll make six figures, and that's very omfg for me to even think about, so I'll just keep on trucking at grinding.

Also, 5 ptbb/100 at 25nl is a fuckton easier than 2.5 ptbb/100 at 50nl.

But yeah I'm talking to people about poker on here and in AIM like all day a lot of days. Glad I can be of help. Maybe if I'm lucky, in another year or so I'll actually reach balla status like the names you mentioned.

Edit: To give an idea on the win-rates, I took like an 8 month break off of poker and was playing mostly short-handed LHE when I left. Within two months of returning to poker I was beating 25nl full ring for around 4 ptbb/100, and somehow I sucked worse at poker then than I do now. I don't think 5 ptbb/100 at 25nl full ring is out of reach for any player who works on their game a little.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.

Silly String

01-22-2008, 04:01 PM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: KC, MO

Posts: 1,434

I actually think 2.5BB/100 at 100NL is easier than 5BB/100 at 25NL.
I may have improved as a player as I moved up, but I have never carried a 5BB/100 win rate over the long term at any level. Despite that I can carry better than a 2BB/100 at 100NL.
It gets exponentially harder to double a win rate b/c it means you are taking twice as many stacks as you are now, you are stealing twice as many blinds, and earning twice as many of everything else. Could you imagine trying to triple your win rate? You sure aren't getting dealt AA any more often.

Playing live . . . thanks alot Bin Laden.

Ash256

01-22-2008, 04:57 PM Post subject: Re: spoon and his math...lol.

#6 (permalink)

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Join Date: Mar 2006

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

assumptions...50 hands/hr at full ring tables, 35 hrs/wk playing time, 50 week/yr schedule.

gl with that.

Soz, continue with thread now.

Listen to my music

Pythonic

01-22-2008, 05:00 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Location: In S-mart Swallowing Your Soul!

Posts: 586

Spoon, when do you plan on paying those taxes?

spoonitnow

01-22-2008, 05:10 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pythonic

Spoon, when do you plan on paying those taxes?

Paying quarterly estimates el dee oh.

Pythonic

01-22-2008, 05:32 PM

#9 (permalink)

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What is the tax percentage? Like 40%?

Never bet on a white man in the heavyweight division!

Thunder

01-22-2008, 06:03 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Location: England

Posts: 561

Lemme get this straight, 100nl is .50/1 level and 200nl is 1/2 right? And that is smal stakes.

And that can bring in $250k a year?

As a side note, playing so many tables, how can you concentrate on your opponents? Surely it reduces poker to just playing the cards?

Pythonic

01-22-2008, 06:09 PM

#11 (permalink)

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I don't think it's 250K per year. He's played 50,000 hands so far for only 10K roughly.

Chopper

01-22-2008, 06:35 PM

#12 (permalink)

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his goal WAS 250k. and i think you can see why, based on the math.

like Ash said, gl with that. burnout is likely. but, who am i to shoot down a dream. i want to see you do it, spoon. do it once and talk about it forever. focus, daniel son.

but, the reason for such large hours/weeks is that spoon himself mentioned he originally wanted supernova elite. and if you think it wont take 50 weeks of 18 tables of 35 hour weeks, just ask spoon why he decided to lower his expectation a bit.

but, heres the other point, you guys.

AIM HIGH!!!! shoot for 250k and fall short at 200k. how would you feel if you shot for only 100k and made 75k. i know, most of us would love that money. but, you would feel a bit dejected by failing to reach your goal.

AIM HIGH and fall short ON your goal. add about 25% to your goals and shoot for that. just what if you underestimated yourself and you hit the higher one?

readjust your goals frequently. it does you no good to still be shooting for 250k in october when you are sitting on 30k of profit...you wont be motivated anymore. readjust that goal to 50k and AIM HIGH!!!!

push to the end, but HAVE something you think you may be able to reach if you really work for it!!

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

spoonitnow

01-22-2008, 08:30 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pythonic

What is the tax percentage? Like 40%?

With state income tax, close to it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pythonic

I don't think it's 250K per year. He's played 50,000 hands so far for only 10K roughly.

I've played almost 85k hands this year for over 10k. I haven't updated my progress thread because I haven't played much in the past few days because of some family stuff going on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder

You're correct that 100nl is $0.50/1 and 200nl is $1/2. Depending on the site, 200nl is often considered mid stakes.

With the bonuses I get that come to something like 30% rakeback or more, it would be relatively easy to make $250k this year playing about 32-35 hours a week at 200nl if you get in the hands that I do. I've lowered the amount I've playing full ring while increasing the amount of time I'm studying and working on my short-handed game since I found out that Supernova Elite will be just slightly out of reach for me. I still think that I'll come close to $250k since I'm working on my game every single day and I have a lot of room for improvement.

Playing so many tables is something that you have to do incrementally if you want to be able to keep up with a lot of information. I assure you that it doesn't reduce poker to just playing the cards.

Ash256

01-22-2008, 10:57 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Join Date: Mar 2006

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Posts: 1,760

Spoon, how do you plan to keep playing fundamental poker despite the sheer number of hours?

I found when playing a lot that my strategy went far-right and crawled up the wall and I had to re-enforce a low-variance low-winrate "system" every so often so that I didn't 3bet shove every flop.

Listen to my music

spoonitnow

01-22-2008, 11:51 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ash256

I hope by the middle of this year that I won't be playing fundamental poker... but I know what you meant

.

All of these issues you guys keep coming up with about playing a lot of hands, a lot of tables, and/or a lot of hours all come down to making slow and steady progress. If you can only play a 2 hour session before you go apeshit, try to force yourself to play an extra 15 or 20 minutes on the end of your sessions and really bare down and stay focused. Once you do this enough, you become very used to it and you don't have to "try" to stay focused. Voila! You're playing longer sessions. The same thing goes for playing more tables. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Jamjoe

01-23-2008, 01:34 AM Post subject: winrates

#16 (permalink)

Join Date: Dec 2007

Posts: 68

Quote:

5/100 at 25nl is waaay easier than 2.5/100 at 100nl

What are decent winrates at different levels?
Say $10 , $25, $50, $100 and $200NL

Working your way up and not down, by this i mean im not asking how much bb/100 could a $200NL regular get at $10NL id like to know, starting as a beginnger at $10NL whats a good winrate in order to move up to $25, then likewise to $50NL etc etc.

I understand that winrate at one level doesnt mean a winrate at anothet etc etc and that u may not play at a specific level long enough to get a meaningful amount of hands at the lower stakes

spoonitnow

01-23-2008, 05:18 AM Post subject: Re: winrates

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jamjoe

Quote:

5/100 at 25nl is waaay easier than 2.5/100 at 100nl

At full ring, I'm pretty sure that I'd want to be beating 25nl for 5 ptbb/100 before moving up to 50nl, I'd want to be beating 50nl for 4 ptbb/100 before moving up to 100nl, and I'd want to be beating 100nl for 3 ptbb/100 before moving up to 200nl. These should all be over samples of at least 50k hands, imo.

This will often take a lot longer than you'll feel like it should, especially since you'll see a lot of people talking about moving up when they have 20 buy-ins for a certain level. The "20 buy-ins rule" was probably fine back when 8+ ptbb/100 win-rates were "decent", but now moving up is more about improving and having a deep bankroll to absorb the swings and to give you some room to learn without feeling like your bankroll security is being compromised.

You'll make more money in the long run (and likely in the short run) if you grind up to 25nl, and stick with it until you're beating the shit out of it over a large sample, no matter how big your bankroll gets. Once you move up to 50nl, you'll already be beating it pretty hard, but you'll already be ready for the work needed to get ready for the dizzy heights of 100nl and beyond.

Thunder

01-23-2008, 12:39 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Spoon is now my ehro. And anyone else who can make $250k!

I'd love to know about Spoon's background and brief history as to how he got where he is today: starting BR, tables played, stakes etc all the way to now, current BR and daily/hourly rate.

spoonitnow

01-23-2008, 01:19 PM

#19 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder

Meh, I might not make $250k if I get lazy, but we'll see.

Search the Beginner's Circle for my 1000th post. I talk about most of that in there.

Right now I've got around $15k or so that I consider my bankroll.

I'm not sure about what my long term win-rate is going to be for 200nl just yet, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be over 2 ptbb/100, or $8/100 hands. When 18-tabling like I currently do, that's about 1150 hands/hour, so something like $115 an hour including the bonuses that I get at PokerStars as a Supernova.

I'm going to have to take a hit on my hourly win-rate if I want to get better, but I'm going to thicken my bankroll for another month or so first.

Thunder

01-23-2008, 06:06 PM

#20 (permalink)

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Join Date: Oct 2007

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How do you search for a post number?

PapalRage

01-23-2008, 06:11 PM

#21 (permalink)

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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...st-t65010.html

ndultimate.

ProZachNation

01-23-2008, 07:22 PM

#22 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2005

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Figure I will drop this here, 20k hand a good estimate of winrate?(generally speaking?)

Im at 30bb/100 with 2k hands at 5nl lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrhappy333

I didn't think its Bold to bang some chick with my bro. but i guess so... thats +EV in my book.

spoonitnow

01-23-2008, 11:19 PM

#23 (permalink)

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After 20k hands I'd suggest running PokerEV and Setometer along with looking at your stats and decide if you're likely beating the game or not. That's probably a big enough sample size to decide if you should continue or move down and get better.

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