Originally Posted by jaytoi

i suppose if he was a complete unknown that would be reasonable.. but do you still put him on that range if hes still running 58/58/100 over a larger sample size?? i mean 100% afq= bets his whole range on every single street...

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

his range is more like AA-88,66,44,A9,K9,Q9,J9,109, and if he is really spazzing out as you're claiming he is I'll include AK/AQ. Just because someone is running 58/58 doesn't mean they shove any overcard on the river against an opponet that took your line of play.
Board: 4d 9s 6h 4c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.333% 23.33% 00.00% 28 0.00 { Kh8h }
Hand 1: 76.667% 76.67% 00.00% 92 0.00 { 88+, 66, 44, AQs+, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, AQo+, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o }

Originally Posted by sven00100

I disagree. I think this is assuming the villain is at all profitable. If this is the type of player that I am aware of, it is the type that will bet bet bet, whenever they stay in a hand. I love these players as I just wait out hands that I hit post-flop and call their flop, turn, and river. However I do agree, their range is probably slightly smaller shoving all in; though not to the extent of being a good range, or even a decent range as listed above. I'm thinking 22+ any 4 that he'd play preflop, and a variety of hands that include some with mid pair, etc etc. but with lowering frequency. that is: I don't think this is a definite: villain plays this hand the same every time; so I think even in defining a range we're making calculation errors.

That being said!!!!

Fold flop...
Fold turn...
Fold river...

At 5NL we aren't doing our EV any favors by assuming our 2nd pair 2nd kicker is good. Get your money in better. even against a random range, over 22 hands we can't ASSUME he is this type of player. And we won't likely see him around long enough to know. I think the weakest I'm stacking off here to this villain is A9. And that's definitely not all the time, and not likely after only 22 hands.

Also, I'm not sure exactly how Afq is calculated, but he isn't likely bet bet shove every hand, probably mild bets in a range of situations. And I don't think his Afq would be affected if he were OOP and folded to a bet. So this isn't necessarily the type of player I am thinking of.

Maybe he bets every street, and indeed this bet does look desperate, but I don't think we can expect to profit doing this. Let him bluff at you when you have a made hand. especially after this hand, assuming you call call fold, he's likely to take this line again. do it with the nuts man (obviously call call rai ).

No stats to back this one up. I think we are making WAY too many assumptions when trying to put him on a river shove range; given his stats and the few amount of hands.

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

You can't really make assumptions that he always bets every street without table stats. The rest of the table was probably uber nitty so most of his pots he took down weren't on the turn or river. Only have 22 hands on him so its pretty likely he's being extra active because the table isn't playing back and noone has took a stand. Think about it, if he's bet every street that he's played theres no way hes not bust if he ends up shoving the river with J high. Calling a shove with 2nd pair on the river is not a good idea at 5nl against anyone.

Originally Posted by jaytoi

yeh that's what i was thinkin- sample size needs to be quite a lot bigger before we can assume anything. I dont think the minraise is that significant, as this is what many fish do when raising with their whole range. Maybe the shove should say something tho. Still, because im results oriented and all- he actually showed up with KQ rofl. I suppose he was ahead till the river anyway so no point like ever taking the line i took, dunno wtf i was doing :P

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Just wait for TPTK or something and stack his ass, no need to get fancy with K high

Originally Posted by jaytoi

I mean if ur a fish, why bet bet shove unless your overcards bricked..

Originally Posted by jaytoi

yeh ur right i mean this should be in fuckin tales of poker or something really.
"when i was tilted and made a lucky call"
i'm pretty much taking the piss if i try to apply theory to any of this

Originally Posted by jaytoi

yeh ur right i mean this should be in fuckin tales of poker or something really.
"when i was tilted and made a lucky call"
i'm pretty much taking the piss if i try to apply theory to any of this