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Hawklet
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05-19-2005, 09:12 PM
Post subject: Is a slow-play bluff profitable?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 36
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Before testing this out myself and possibly losing a lot, I figured I'd see if anyone else knows of a simliar play.
I've always noticed that good players are very good at detecting when one slowplays a monster hand. Is it possible to use this to your advantage though?
Assume a good player is first to act heads up. Flop    . He bets half the pot hero calls. Turn :Ks:. He bets pot, hero calls. River  . He bets. Hero reraises.
How likely is it that the player will believe that our hero has the hand that hes repping (A5 or 56)? Will a good player be like "screw this I'm not getting trapped" or will he not be able to let go of the hand? Could this be profitable?
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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against a good player, maybe. but since most of us make money from bad players, this play would not be profitable because their biggest mistake is calling too much. cant make money from bluffing a calling station!
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bunthorne
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05-19-2005, 09:27 PM
Post subject: Re: Is a slow-play bluff profitable?
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#3 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 147
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Hawklet
Before testing this out myself and possibly losing a lot, I figured I'd see if anyone else knows of a simliar play.
I've always noticed that good players are very good at detecting when one slowplays a monster hand. Is it possible to use this to your advantage though?
Assume a good player is first to act heads up. Flop . He bets half the pot hero calls. Turn :Ks:. He bets pot, hero calls. River . He bets. Hero reraises.
How likely is it that the player will believe that our hero has the hand that hes repping (A5 or 56)? Will a good player be like "screw this I'm not getting trapped" or will he not be able to let go of the hand? Could this be profitable? |
The good player is going to dump his hand, without question. If he doesn't, he's not a good player! He will ask himself, what could the hero possibly have, and he will know that as the hero is betting on the river, it's nigh on certain that he has the goods. By calling on the flop, the hero either had a draw or flopped the big hand and tried to slow play it. The call on the turn strongly suggests the hand has been made, as the good player would not have let the hero draw cheaply but would have made a decent sized bet. But if the hero had played the draw all the way and missed it, it is unlikely that he would raise on the river to try to pick the pot up. therefore the good player will muck.
Remember that the good player will have been watching the hero's play, and everyone else's, on each hand and will have a fair idea of how the hero might play a particular hand. That's why you should mix your play up now and again to try to throw him.
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ChezJ
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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fancy plays don't work on fish who don't ever bother putting you on a hand.
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Element187
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 802
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most people at the small stakes play their cards and not the action of the villian.
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"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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This play only works if you have a deadlock read that the opponent is smart and willing to lay down a tough hand. I'd also set it up with a min-raise on the turn, i.e.
flop - check/call (or from late position just call)
turn - check/min-raise (or from late position just raise)
river - big bet (or from late position big bet or big raise)
I wouldn't bother with anything this fancy against a run-of-the-mill or unknown opponent. I try things like this from time to time against friends of mine that I know are aware enough to make the fold, and more often than not it works out. You can't get too committed to it though - make sure to make your reads along the way and figure out if the opponent's hand is strong. You can make them let go of a pair or maybe even a weak two pair, but most players are calling you with top two pair or better. So don't jam a lot of chips in the pot on the river expecting them to lay down a hand that you have no idea they have; try to figure out what it is first.
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ekillian
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05-20-2005, 05:13 PM
Post subject: Re: Is a slow-play bluff profitable?
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#7 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 235
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bunthorne
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Hawklet
Before testing this out myself and possibly losing a lot, I figured I'd see if anyone else knows of a simliar play.
I've always noticed that good players are very good at detecting when one slowplays a monster hand. Is it possible to use this to your advantage though?
Assume a good player is first to act heads up. Flop . He bets half the pot hero calls. Turn :Ks:. He bets pot, hero calls. River . He bets. Hero reraises.
How likely is it that the player will believe that our hero has the hand that hes repping (A5 or 56)? Will a good player be like "screw this I'm not getting trapped" or will he not be able to let go of the hand? Could this be profitable? |
The good player is going to dump his hand, without question. If he doesn't, he's not a good player! |
You couldn't me more wrong. He could be a good player with pocket Kings. He could be a good player with A5, 56 and not be in the slow-playing mood. Slow playing isn't so profitable as people think in the first place, therefore he could easily be a good player betting a great hand.
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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You can't bluff in this example against a good or a bad player. If the player is bad, he just saw you call a pot sized bet and then bet into you on the river. He's not going to fold to a raise with top pair. If the player is good, he's not going to bet into you on the river after you called a pot sized bet unless he has 2-pair or better. He's going to call your bluff because he has a good hand. This is NOT a bluffing situation.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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bunthorne
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05-21-2005, 07:02 PM
Post subject: Re: Is a slow-play bluff profitable?
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#9 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 147
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ekillian
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bunthorne
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Hawklet
Before testing this out myself and possibly losing a lot, I figured I'd see if anyone else knows of a simliar play.
I've always noticed that good players are very good at detecting when one slowplays a monster hand. Is it possible to use this to your advantage though?
Assume a good player is first to act heads up. Flop . He bets half the pot hero calls. Turn :Ks:. He bets pot, hero calls. River . He bets. Hero reraises.
How likely is it that the player will believe that our hero has the hand that hes repping (A5 or 56)? Will a good player be like "screw this I'm not getting trapped" or will he not be able to let go of the hand? Could this be profitable? |
The good player is going to dump his hand, without question. If he doesn't, he's not a good player! |
You couldn't me more wrong. He could be a good player with pocket Kings. He could be a good player with A5, 56 and not be in the slow-playing mood. Slow playing isn't so profitable as people think in the first place, therefore he could easily be a good player betting a great hand. |
No, I don't agree. It is possible the good player might have KK or A5, but the chances are very high that he hasn't. That is how I would read it. Now and again I'd be wrong, but more often than not he won't have that hand.
If our good player has trip Ks on the river, but there is three to a flush/straight out there, and his opponent has been calling up until the river and now bets huge, then our good player WILL dump his Ks the majority of the time, unless he can comfortably afford the call, or if it's in the rebuy stage of a tournament, or if he has a tell on his opponent to suggest he is bluffing. If he doesn't.........well I'd love to play against his kind all the time.
A good player might have slow-played a hand like A5 or 56 which gave him the straight on the flop, but when I first started playing I learned the hard way about how vulnerable a straight can be when it is slow played. So I would play it fast and bet out heavy with it. If a 5 fell, what if my opponent has 76?
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