Originally Posted by Extremophile

Why do you have 66 in his range unless your friend is a solid player? Also I have never counted the combos before. For curiousity, what is the advantage of counting them; can't we just pokerstove it?

If I had the K instead of Q, I would certainly call with two pair. In this case I tend to fold it on the turn.

Edit: Shouldn't we instead calculate the EV on the turn?

Originally Posted by Extremophile

Edit: Shouldn't we instead calculate the EV on the turn?

Originally Posted by JKDS

good question, lets add some flushdraw type hands he might play this way (dont go crazy though) and calculate the ev for the turn

Originally Posted by oskar

We don't do that stuff nearly enough, and I'm sure most of you don't really use this, so here's a simple exercise.

I just played this hand an hour ago, and I thought it was somewhat interesting. Villain is a friend of mine

It's 10c/20c/40c live - straddle isn't mandatory but most hands are straddled and double-straddled
Relative stack with villain is €40

I straddle with :Qc:
3 callers, villain completes from the SB, BB completes.

Flop:
6 players
Pot: 1,9 (lol rake)

:Ks: :Qh:

check, check, I bet 2, 3 folds, villain calls, bb folds.

Turn:
2 players
Pot: 5.9


Villain checks, I bet 4.5, villain raises 13, I call.

River:
Pot: 31.9


Villain bets 25 all-in

He can't have AK, KQ, KK, QQ - he would raise pre. He doesn't really think about my range, so even though he would turn 86 into a bluff by playing it that way, he's not aware of it. He would c/r or lead JT almost always. If he would c/r a K or Q with a FD on the turn he probably would c/r bigger and not bet the river - you could add ~4 of those combos if you want to be anal about it.
He doesn't have a bluffing range really. He's smart enough to know not to try and bet me off my hand after I lead a multi-way flop on that table.

So his range is 88, 66, K8, K6, Q8, Q6, 68.
First off just decide if you would call or fold without counting combos.

How much equity do we have against his range, and how much equity do we need to make a call 0EV?
Bonus: What's the exact EV of calling?

Originally Posted by Monty3038

Ok, I'm not reading the other responses on purpose, going to give this a shot from your post only.

I don't understand the straddle aspect, so playing it like a normal NLHE hand.

When SB completes, they have a fairly wide range, Ax's, Broadways, SC's, pairs... then they call a flop bet... hmmm... that narrows them a bit... I'm thiking you aren't calling this flop without hitting something, at least a pair, probably K or Q in their hand, mostly likely King IMO, so let's see... Kx, AK, AQ, 88, KK, QQ hands... you're way ahead here, like 85% ahead...

On turn the diamond puts two diamonds on the board, I don't think K6 or Q6 is a likely pre-flop hand here... but... 66 is possible... and he might have just set. Hmm...

River is junk, but that slim sd possiblity came true... 57 pre flop? Doubtful, but depends onthe player I suppose... he got big time aggressive... hmmm

I'm putting him on KQ, 88, 66.

Originally Posted by oskar

The turn is pretty difficult to figure out exactly during the hand. We have implied odds with 5 outs against some of his range if we're behind and reverse implied odds against others when we improve, but end up with the worst hand. It should be closer to 50% equity. Given the pot odds the turn should be a pretty obvious call. - This would change a lot in a raised pot because his range is a lot narrower and tilted more towards sets and better 2-pair hands.
The way this hand played out - with a c/c on the flop and a c/r on the turn in a limped pot it really looks like he improved on the turn. Frankly I've included K8 and 88 more as an afterthought for completeness and because it makes it a little closer :P.
I think his range is weighted towards K6, Q6, 86, 66, and Qx of diamonds (on the turn).


Extremophile - I don't really know what you did there with the combos.
88 - 1 combo: 8 8
66 - 3 combos: 66, 66, 66
K8 - 6 combos: there are two 8's and 3 Kings left in the deck.

And so on.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

So me and kmind are wrong and no one has bothered to correct us... interesting.

This is spenda's equation from "How to Analyze Calling an All In."
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

EV = (our equity)(pot size) - (our opponents equities)(bet size)

Originally Posted by oskar

Monty, I just posted the whole hand to make this whole thing more life like and to explain how I got to that range. I really don't think QK is a possibility. If he doesn't raise pre, he'll lead or c/r the flop (same with 88). - Some random guy might not, but I know him pretty well. And all the random junk is definitely in his range.

Originally Posted by Belt

This indicates the pot size before you call, not after...

And @ noone bothered to correct you... I did obv.

Originally Posted by surviva316

AHAHAHAHAH! dranger, you got pwned by an istanbulian. i hope you're in the irc right now so i can tell you to suck it

Originally Posted by Belt

Our equity in the pot is 40%;
We get 81,9 * 0,40 = 32,76 from the pot. Since we invest 25 for this income, our EV is 32,76 - 25 = 7,26.

Another way to calculate this;
We win 40% of the time... 56,9 * 0,40 = 22,76 (56,9 here is our profit. We must use the profit in this equation not the pot size.)
We lose 60% of the time... 25 * 0,60 = 15
Our EV is 22,76 - 15 = 7,26

Originally Posted by Belt

OMFG... No excuse for this silly mistake...

Originally Posted by surviva316

lol. Belt>Kmind>dranger...dranger still sucks at life