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Showdowns won % against bad players?

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cowboyardee

02-16-2008, 07:12 AM Post subject: Showdowns won % against bad players?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2005

Location: Pittsburgh, PA

Posts: 66

I've been playing in a regular live game at home. The players range from mediocre to terrible with no shortage of the latter -- they don't even seem to get better. We play a mixture of full ring/mostly-full ring (like 7-9 players), one table tournies, and two table tourneys -- more OTTs than anything else though.

It's not a big money game, but I've been reliably ahead now for quite a while. I don't keep great stats on live games, but I know I'm up 9 buy-ins over our last 6 OTTs and it doesn't even seem to me that I'm on a hot streak or anything. Again, BAD players. So, as I've been winning, for a good while I was pretty happy and not paying particular attention to if I could improve my edge.

But recently I began to notice that I win a really high % at showdown. I started keeping track (as well as I could in my head), and I figured that over just < 1000 hands, my w%@showdown was 74 %.

I know that's a small sample and my internal tally is probably a bit suspect, but the important thing is that that sample also felt pretty representative of my play with these guys. And I'm 100% sure I win a while more than 50%.

So finally, my actual question:
Does a w%@SD figure that high always indicate that I'm playing too tight, or is it actually normal/good/whatever to have an abnormally high w%@SD against bad players? (we're talking bad like you don't see online anymore. Bottom limits B&M game on a weekend bad. Playmoney bad. )

Thanks for any advice.

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Robb

02-17-2008, 03:54 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Being 75% in showdowns might be too high against better players. It sounds like you're using good judgment against these fish. We some more info to correctly analyze here.

First, what's your showdown win % in big/medium/small pots? You can lose a majority of small pot showdowns if you're way ahead in the medium and big pots.

Second, how many players are regularly seeing the flop? If it's 4+, then you're nut camping is probably the best line. The fish school against premium hands and make cbets and medium strength hands very dangerous.

Third, are you losing any action on your big bets/rr's postflop? If the fish don't stop calling your value bets, then who cares? It's only when you stop getting action on your big hands that you should consider opening with medium hands, semibluffing, etc.

Fourth, if you want to open up a bit without much risk, and if 2-3 fish are calling all your flop bets, start betting your draws about 2/3's of the pot. You'll hit enough that with implied odds you'll make money. And you'll show down some junk when the turn/river action is meager, so they'll think you're looser than you are.

Fifth, keep playing your style - it's winning, so why worry too much?

BankItDrew

02-17-2008, 08:49 PM

#3 (permalink)

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W%SD is over rated because you can show a huge profit with a low or high W%SD

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cowboyardee

02-18-2008, 03:04 AM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2005

Location: Pittsburgh, PA

Posts: 66

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robb

Wow, thanks for the elaborate reply.

I am seeing 4+ players on the flop quite often, so I tend to camp on the nuts.

But the other important factor is that this is a fairly regular live game with a rotating crowd of regulars (and usually a new player/guest or two) whose games I've come to know. That means I can camp nuts most of the time, but also push around known tighter (but thankfully unimaginative) players here and there when the situation arises, or show down a couple weaker hands if I can isolate one of the absurd calling stations -- mpmk can be worth three-barreling for value against someone who routinely shows down Q-high and doesn't learn. So that sort of helps me stay tough to read.

I really haven't kept any conscious stats of w% in big/med/small pots. In my standard game, if the pot was small, that usually means I got out on the flop or somehow everyone else did -- and I would say I lose quite a bit of those because I fold on the flop and turn a lot. Most of the showdowns I play tend to be big pots, as I bet pretty aggressively if I'm in a hand. Also, more than anything else, many of my opps are TV poker junkies who love to make big moves, bluff slowplays, eye you down for 4 minutes before shoving a pair of sevens over your raise on the river, all without realizing that they have to pick their spots. So, my w%@SD is high, and I win a lot more of the big pots than the small ones, as my showdown hands are almost always big pots.

As for semibluffing -- I do semibluff when I think the players still in the hand make it a good play. And I do try to use it to keep people from putting me on too tight of a range -- the couple people who would bother anyway.
But a question --
I tend to fire pot-sized bets on the flop. Because:
A)more often than not, I'm ahead when I'm betting, and...
B)The very loose players in this game will call/raise a pot-sized bet just as quick as they'll call a 2/3- or 3/4-pot sized bet and with just as weak holdings.

As such, when I do semibluff, I've generally been laying out pot-sized bets to mask my hand. Of course this bites me in the ass when i get reraised as I've lost more $ and given up pot control. Would semibluffing 2/3 pot be too unbalanced and readable? Should I just assume no one's paying quite enough attention to make it -EV, and just keep firing pot-sized bets with made hands and go 2/3 with semibluffs? Or should I adjust my bet sizing in general on the flop?

Finally, as for playing my style -- I am having fun and not worrying too much. I just don't have much opportunity to play against good opponents, so I decided to try to learn the game theoretically by trying to absolutely maximize my edge on bad players. And then soothe my conscience by buying them beer with a bit of their own money.

Robb

02-18-2008, 03:18 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Don't change anything. It sounds like the game is loose enough and fishy enough that you have to pot your semi-bluffs and cbets or get run over. If you're getting 3-way action+ on a pot-sized flop raise with a big draw or combo hand, you're fine. You don't have pot odds, but with these players you certainly have implied odds.

It sounds imo like your game is just deceptive enough so people can't (aren't able to) figure out you're nut camping. But you don't appear to be giving away value by jumping into multiway pots with weak-ass bs. Just stay tight and aggressive and VERY selectively get creative, maybe once per 100 hands or so.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cowboyardee

Finally, as for playing my style -- I am having fun and not worrying too much. I just don't have much opportunity to play against good opponents, so I decided to try to learn the game theoretically by trying to absolutely maximize my edge on bad players. And then soothe my conscience by buying them beer with a bit of their own money.

I don't play live. But my understanding is that the pros who do often "invest" in the fish, not playing their most exploitive game against regular fish so the fish will come back. Buying them beer is good. The story I remember was reading about a pro who never used the check-raise in a certain home game because the players got offended. But they were such fish, he would win big even without it. He changed his game to a less optimal short-term format with the goal of winning more long term. Which is cool. So keep buying them beer. They'll buy you a cool new computer!!

cowboyardee

02-18-2008, 06:37 PM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2005

Location: Pittsburgh, PA

Posts: 66

Once again, thanks. A lot.

I've actually tried to work it out so the $ spent on beer comes out rougly to the equivalent of a rake (a slightly high rake, but whatever, I'm winning). As it's a low money game, I'm pretty much confined to Pabst and the like, but those guys aren't too picky.

As opening up creatively goes, do you guys like just picking a couple random hands I don't normally play without good reason (say 54s, J8s, 86s, and 9 of clubs with 5 of diamonds -- that comes out to right about 1% of hands) and playing them creatively whenever they show up? Or still being pretty picky about spots before I go play all wonky, maybe adding a few hands to my CO and button opening ranges or something?

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