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Shoving/Overbetting turn with an overpair

  
 
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AFchung
Old 12-08-2008, 09:03 PM     Post subject: Shoving/Overbetting turn with an overpair #1 (permalink)  
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60/10 over only 10 hands, so basically no reads

I shoved the turn because
- it was just a little bit more than a PSB
- villain didn't have a big stack behind
- to give the wrong price to diamond/wheel draws

Should I be doing this though? It is a big bet, and I think it might be missing value on a few of opp's hands that he's willing to call smaller bets with

=========================

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


UTG ($10.80)
UTG+1 ($7.65)
MP1 ($5.90)
MP2 ($12.65)
CO ($5.55)
Button ($5.10)
Hero (SB) ($10.60)
BB ($2)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, BB calls $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.50) 5, J, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.20, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1.20

Turn: ($3.90) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.20, MP1 calls $4.20 (All-In)

River: ($12.30) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $12.30 | Rake: $0.60
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a500lbgorilla
Old 12-08-2008, 10:25 PM #2 (permalink)  
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yup

postcount++

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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kb coolman
Old 12-08-2008, 10:53 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
postcount++
uh-huh.
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Old 12-08-2008, 11:45 PM #4 (permalink)  
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he calls with flush draw, nh
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metman04
Old 12-08-2008, 11:48 PM #5 (permalink)  

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i definitely agree with the move...b/c of ur preflop and c-bet there is already a good amount in the pot and if they r gonna call with a draw ur makin them do it with the wrong odds
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kb coolman
Old 12-09-2008, 12:24 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Given the villan's stack size, it's not a huge mistake to call $4.20 on an $8.25 pot with nine outs to the flush. He pretty much commited his stack when he called the flop bet.
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Old 12-09-2008, 12:33 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kb coolman
Given the villan's stack size, it's not a huge mistake to call $4.20 on an $8.25 pot with nine outs to the flush. He pretty much commited his stack when he called the flop bet.
he's losing like 1/10 of a buy in every time he makes that call
how is that not a huge mistake
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kb coolman
Old 12-09-2008, 12:41 AM #8 (permalink)  
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ok, you're right. 9 outs (9/44) is 20% hit on the river. So he loses $4.20 4 times (-16.80) and wins $8.25 once. -EV big time.

Is my math right?
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Old 12-09-2008, 12:55 AM #9 (permalink)  
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I think with the assumption of a small flush draw that's correct (except he wins 8.1 I think)

depends on whether he has an overcard of course
so if he has an ace or a king he has 12 outs which is 27.2% to hit

it's 4.2 to win 12.3 which is 34.1% pot%
which is an obvious loss

what's his EV? he wins 8.1 27.2% of the time which is 2.2
he loses 4.2 72.8% of the time which is a loss of 3.05

so he loses 80 cents when he has an overcard and more than a dollar when he doesn't
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kb coolman
Old 12-09-2008, 01:35 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Yea, you're right. I guess you would have to assume an Ace or King will win with top pair on this board.

So, I'll rework my math to solidify my thinking:
He's only about a 25% to hit his hand, so he loses 4.20 3 times (12.60), and win 8.25 once (don't forget about the blinds). Overall, that's -EV of 4.35, or 1.09 per hand.

For this to be +EV, the he could call no more than about 1.25, right?

FWIW, If I'm right, I just plugged a big hole in my game, both for calling down the flush draw, and giving my ops proper odds to call.
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Old 12-09-2008, 01:50 AM #11 (permalink)  
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what blinds?

Turn: ($3.90) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.20, MP1 calls $4.20 (All-In)

River: ($12.30) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

the blinds were put in pre-flop
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mieczkowusc
Old 12-09-2008, 04:01 AM #12 (permalink)  
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If the villain is calling the turn, even for 1/2 pot, then he is probably getting AI on the river regardless. So honestly, I don't think its a bad move just getting him in on the turn.
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AFchung
Old 12-09-2008, 09:16 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
If the villain is calling the turn, even for 1/2 pot, then he is probably getting AI on the river regardless. So honestly, I don't think its a bad move just getting him in on the turn.
he has about $4 behind. if he calls a $2 turn bet, then obviously he's going to be committed by the river

the problem is getting him to call if we fire a full $4 though. would he still call? i think i'm folding out a lot of hands we beat by barrelling so big
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Old 12-09-2008, 06:59 PM #14 (permalink)  
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yes, but it doesn't make sense to leave any money behind
I've seen people call most of their stack off on a flush draw and fold the river
don't give him that option, take his ENTIRE stack
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Sabr1988
Old 12-12-2008, 09:47 AM #15 (permalink)  
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You played that hand correctly imo., would have done pretty much the same.
So i think nothing is wrong here.
With patience you win
 
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Monty3038
Old 12-12-2008, 01:50 PM     Post subject: Re: Shoving/Overbetting turn with an overpair #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
60/10 over only 10 hands, so basically no reads

I shoved the turn because
- it was just a little bit more than a PSB
- villain didn't have a big stack behind
- to give the wrong price to diamond/wheel draws

Should I be doing this though? It is a big bet, and I think it might be missing value on a few of opp's hands that he's willing to call smaller bets with

=========================

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com


UTG ($10.80)
UTG+1 ($7.65)
MP1 ($5.90)
MP2 ($12.65)
CO ($5.55)
Button ($5.10)
Hero (SB) ($10.60)
BB ($2)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, BB calls $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.50) 5, J, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.20, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1.20

Turn: ($3.90) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.20, MP1 calls $4.20 (All-In)

River: ($12.30) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $12.30 | Rake: $0.60
Chung, I'm with you on this one, it is really a questionof value... In this position I'm often betting about 2.75-3.25 on this turn, hoping he'll take the initiative and shove, call at least. He is pot committed if he calls and I'm making him call AI on river, but thinking about possible range, flush draw is definate in his range, small pocket pair might be also... in that case he may have set but I'm not giving that much credit, so I have no real problem with your play, you are way ahead on the flop, still ahead on the turn, just I wonder what calls vs what doesn't call... his call really narrows his range to a set or flush draw, I'm wondering if giving him the initiative on the turn isn't the way to ensure you get him in no matter what he has...
 
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