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goolick
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03-13-2005, 07:06 PM
Post subject: Should you ever fold the nuts?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Sarcophagi
Posts: 29
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In a recent game w/ my friends one guy flopped a nut straight and was all-in againt 3 guys, 2 of which ended up w/ a full house.
If you (against 2 opponents) have a straight, w/ 2 cards of same suit on the board, and you are fairly sure one person has a flush draw and the other a set, is it worth it to risk all your money, either in a cash game or tournament?
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a500lbgorilla
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03-13-2005, 07:13 PM
Post subject: Re: Should you ever fold the nuts?
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#2 (permalink)
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by goolick
In a recent game w/ my friends one guy flopped a nut straight and was all-in againt 3 guys, 2 of which ended up w/ a full house.
If you (against 2 opponents) have a straight, w/ 2 cards of same suit on the board, and you are fairly sure one person has a flush draw and the other a set, is it worth it to risk all your money, either in a cash game or tournament?
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If you don't. You can't play poker successfully.
-'rilla
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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thestrokes
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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you have a better chance of winning than they do
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"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
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Hubris1
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 163
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Of course there are situations where you should fold the nuts.
The classic example: You make final table at a tourney, you get dealt AA, all eight players go all in. You are short stacked and all eight players have you covered. You stand to rocket to second place if you just fold them. Second place would buy you a new house. You fold.
In the situation you describe I might lay it down if its a five way or something along those lines and I have reads that they are tight players, where someone drawing to a better straight, the flush and the boat... the outs have your hand reduced to a coinflip. If they are loose players then call and let them pay you off. 3 way? Probably won't lay it down, late in an SNG plenty of players will go AI with middle pair, TPTK even bottom pair or overcards.
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thestrokes
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Hubris1
The classic example: You make final table at a tourney, you get dealt AA, all eight players go all in. You are short stacked and all eight players have you covered. You stand to rocket to second place if you just fold them. Second place would buy you a new house. You fold.
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that is assuming the big stack wins, but yeah if that ever happened i would fold. but it wont
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"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
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ensign_lee
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The University of TEXAS at Austin
Posts: 2,237
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Fold the nuts?
Never.
(ring game perspective)
NEVER.
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Xianti
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: facebook.com/xianti
Posts: 5,289
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by goolick
Occupation: Professional Poker Player
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Vaun21
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 39
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thestrokes
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xianti
Quote:
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Originally Posted by goolick
Occupation: Professional Poker Player
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im pretty sure you all know but he was joking
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"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thestrokes
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xianti
Quote:
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Originally Posted by goolick
Occupation: Professional Poker Player
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im pretty sure you all know but he was joking |
Well then maybe he'll learn not to put it in bold!!
-'rilla
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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You have a decent chance of going broke, but you also have an excellent chance of tripling your money. If you're unwilling to risk your money in this situation, then you probably shouldn't have bought-in.
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Radix
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 15
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This is a decent situation for you. You have the nuts and if you put someone on a set, you know they'll probably pay you off. The flush draw can always be scary but you must be vigilant. By throwing money into the pot you may be raised if there is a set, which is good for you. You are also making the flush draw make a mistake by calling (assuming you bet the pot or close to it.
Yes, you will get busted by a flush now and then, but in the long run this is a profitable play in my opinion.
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thestrokes
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Radix
Yes, you will get busted by a flush now and then, but in the long run this is a profitable play in my opinion.
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i agree with you completely, but does anyone have any math to back this up...id do it but...
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"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
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thestrokes
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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decided to save you a weak excuse for being lazy
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"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
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jmrogers7
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03-14-2005, 01:19 PM
Post subject: Re: Should you ever fold the nuts?
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#15 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 1,112
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by goolick
In a recent game w/ my friends one guy flopped a nut straight and was all-in againt 3 guys, 2 of which ended up w/ a full house.
If you (against 2 opponents) have a straight, w/ 2 cards of same suit on the board, and you are fairly sure one person has a flush draw and the other a set, is it worth it to risk all your money, either in a cash game or tournament?
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Not to be mean, but I can't believe that you would ask this question. You can get your money in with the best it and if you get outdrawn, so be it. You will win enough to make this profitable.
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"The urge to gamble is so universal and it's practice is so pleasurable, that I assume it must be evil." - Heywood Broun
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thestrokes
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03-14-2005, 02:50 PM
Post subject: Re: Should you ever fold the nuts?
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#16 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmrogers7
Not to be mean, but I can't believe that you would ask this question. You can get your money in with the best it and if you get outdrawn, so be it. You will win enough to make this profitable.
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Actually im not sure it will be more profitable...
in the situation he described the Flush draw has a 25.5%, the set has a 35.5% the straght has a 38.5% chance of winning, .5% chance of tie.
So even though he is favored to win against any single player, he is not favored against 2 opponents and will lose money in the long run.
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"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
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a500lbgorilla
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03-14-2005, 02:53 PM
Post subject: Re: Should you ever fold the nuts?
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#17 (permalink)
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thestrokes
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmrogers7
Not to be mean, but I can't believe that you would ask this question. You can get your money in with the best it and if you get outdrawn, so be it. You will win enough to make this profitable.
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Actually im not sure it will be more profitable...
in the situation he described the Flush draw has a 25.5%, the set has a 35.5% the straght has a 38.5% chance of winning, .5% chance of tie.
So even though he is favored to win against any single player, he is not favored against 2 opponents and will lose money in the long run. |
Don't forget how big the pot will be.
It'll be a winning move in the long run.
-'rilla
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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thestrokes
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03-14-2005, 02:57 PM
Post subject: Re: Should you ever fold the nuts?
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#18 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Quote:
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Originally Posted by thestrokes
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmrogers7
Not to be mean, but I can't believe that you would ask this question. You can get your money in with the best it and if you get outdrawn, so be it. You will win enough to make this profitable.
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Actually im not sure it will be more profitable...
in the situation he described the Flush draw has a 25.5%, the set has a 35.5% the straght has a 38.5% chance of winning, .5% chance of tie.
So even though he is favored to win against any single player, he is not favored against 2 opponents and will lose money in the long run. |
Don't forget how big the pot will be.
It'll be a winning move in the long run.
-'rilla |
Zing! My bad sorry.
In that case both the set and the straight would be making a good decision by moving in here then, correct?
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"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Yes, the flush draw would probably *think* it's a winning move but doesn't know he's not drawing to all 9 outs. The flush draw + pot money makes it a winning move for the other two.
-'rilla
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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jmrogers7
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03-14-2005, 03:57 PM
Post subject: Re: Should you ever fold the nuts?
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#20 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 1,112
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Quote:
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Originally Posted by thestrokes
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmrogers7
Not to be mean, but I can't believe that you would ask this question. You can get your money in with the best it and if you get outdrawn, so be it. You will win enough to make this profitable.
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Actually im not sure it will be more profitable...
in the situation he described the Flush draw has a 25.5%, the set has a 35.5% the straght has a 38.5% chance of winning, .5% chance of tie.
So even though he is favored to win against any single player, he is not favored against 2 opponents and will lose money in the long run. |
Don't forget how big the pot will be.
It'll be a winning move in the long run.
-'rilla |
Bingo.
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"The urge to gamble is so universal and it's practice is so pleasurable, that I assume it must be evil." - Heywood Broun
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