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Should we bet this river?

  
 
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DoanDiggy
Old 12-07-2008, 04:18 PM     Post subject: Should we bet this river? #1 (permalink)  
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Posts: 536
DoanDiggy
SB calls preflop with anything. SB calls postflop with anything. SB has hugely-overbet the river in the past with hands like middle pair. I know we potentially miss value checking behind here, but is playing it safe bad?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($3)
UTG+1 ($4.97)
Hero (MP1) ($6.06)
MP2 ($2.96)
CO ($1)
Button ($2.36)
SB ($4.59)
BB ($1)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, Q
UTG raises to $0.04, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.12, 3 folds, SB calls $0.11, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.40) 8, 6, 7 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.40) Q (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold

River: ($1) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

Total pot: $1 | Rake: $0.05
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gingerwizard
Old 12-07-2008, 04:34 PM #2 (permalink)  
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mieczkowusc
Old 12-07-2008, 04:34 PM #3 (permalink)  
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mieczkowusc
Thats an annoying river card.

At least you know that the SB is going to call you if you make a value bet. I don't think you will be making a huge mistake either way. He's probably showing up some of the time with a 10 or a 5, or a weird two pair combo. This would be an interesting Stove calculation with range of ATC for the villain.

If it were me, and I only had TPTK on this board, I am playing it safe.
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Monsieur_chat
Old 12-07-2008, 04:37 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Monsieur_chat
Nice bet size on the turn, villain has called without odds (assuming he is drawing) and gotten lucky. Add to that 2nlers seem to love checking their flush on ANY street and you gotta check behind methinks.
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DoanDiggy
Old 12-07-2008, 04:43 PM #5 (permalink)  
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DoanDiggy
Quote:
Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
Thats an annoying river card.

At least you know that the SB is going to call you if you make a value bet. I don't think you will be making a huge mistake either way.
I was only partly worried about him having a better hand. I was more worried about him blowing me out of the pot with a worse hand. Not long before this, I had this fun hand against this same guy:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($3)
MP2 ($4.97)
Hero (CO) ($5.07)
Button ($2.96)
SB ($2.37)
BB ($5.67)
UTG ($13.29)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, 2 folds, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13) 9, Q, A (2 players)
BB bets $0.02, Hero calls $0.02

Turn: ($0.17) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.17) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero calls $1

Total pot: $2.17 | Rake: $0.10

Results:
BB had 7, Q (one pair, Queens).
Hero had K, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $2.07

The turn check looks kind of weird, but I had just seen him bet huge on the river in a hand a lot like this within the last few hands, so I figured I got the most value by checking the turn and hoping he overbet the river. If not, I could get my value there a lot of times, anyways.

So that was part of what concerned me about betting in this case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mieczkowusc
This would be an interesting Stove calculation with range of ATC for the villain.

If it were me, and I only had TPTK on this board, I am playing it safe.
That's a great idea. I checked it out:

Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 990  games     0.001 secs   990,000  games/sec

Board: 8h 6c 7d Qh 9h
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	54.141%  	53.84% 	00.30% 	           533 	        3.00   { AsQd }
Hand 1: 	45.859%  	45.56% 	00.30% 	           451 	        3.00   { random }
It's very interesting that top pair top kicker is barely winning against a random hand here. Looks like a check behind was far and away the right play. And the pot's already plenty big anyways.
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