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Set Vs. Flush Draw

  
 
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strawman
Old 02-28-2006, 09:38 AM     Post subject: Set Vs. Flush Draw #1 (permalink)  
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I flopped a set of 8s on a 10s 8s 4d board. There is an all in with two callers so the pot is now approximately 15. I know the all in is a bluff and the first caller I put on a pair or three to the straight and the last caller on a flush draw. I have enough to call and push it another $20. Is having a hand with 10 outs valuable enough to push into a drawing hand if you are giving them the correct odds to call or in this situation is it best to cold call and see if the turn is a blank or spade and take it from there?
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finky
Old 02-28-2006, 10:19 AM #2 (permalink)  
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All in, every time.

You don't need outs, they do. By calling you give infinite odds.
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strawman
Old 02-28-2006, 10:56 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by finky
All in, every time.

You don't need outs, they do. By calling you give infinite odds.
I pushed and the more I think about it the more I'm seeing how much ahead I am here due to the redraw should they hit the turn and I should be hitting about 1/3 of the time to a boat or better as well by the river.
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Fnord
Old 02-28-2006, 10:59 AM #4 (permalink)  
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You can't make it correct to fold a strong draw at any point given the pot size, so you may as well just stick it all in when you're pretty darn sure you're getting the best of it.
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WhooFleuryScores
Old 03-01-2006, 03:26 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Dude I would push evertume with Top Set.I wish to God everyhand I played was this way-I could get hit by a Mack truck and be happy with my poker career.
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strawman
Old 03-01-2006, 09:34 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Well essentially I'm trying to better deduce Sklansky's Theorem of Poker about inducing mistakes. If the odds calculator I used is correct than I'm about a 3-1 favorite in this situation so although they have odds to hit their flush I've layed them poor odds to do so, so pushing is the correct play as opposed to calling.
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WhooFleuryScores
Old 03-03-2006, 01:19 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Amen.Pushing is def the best play.
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saywhat2
Old 03-03-2006, 01:34 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by strawman
Well essentially I'm trying to better deduce Sklansky's Theorem of Poker about inducing mistakes. If the odds calculator I used is correct than I'm about a 3-1 favorite in this situation so although they have odds to hit their flush I've layed them poor odds to do so, so pushing is the correct play as opposed to calling.
You are assuming they are on a flush draw. And probably correct. Even if they hit on the turn you syill have 13 outs going to the river. All in no doubt.
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Ash256
Old 03-11-2006, 12:13 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 Definitely push.

If one's on a flush draw, then have a 34% chance of completing it.

If the other bloke's doing a stone-cold bluff, his chances of winning are probably around the 2% mark. Which leaves you with 64% odds of winning.

I know this is very rough, but in this situation you HAVE to push.
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underminedsk
Old 03-11-2006, 03:45 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Interesting situation....

What about this scenario? Say we change the situation a little, so that maybe 2 or 3 short stacks were all in already, and draws are now getting 1:5 or better odds to call for their stack? Or what if we give the villan a double draw, increasing the odds that he can get his money in profitably? I know this situation is highly unlikely, but would it still be correct to push in with your set then?.... Could we ever devise a situation so it would be correct to fold your set against draws?
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finky
Old 03-11-2006, 05:07 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by underminedsk
Interesting situation....

What about this scenario? Say we change the situation a little, so that maybe 2 or 3 short stacks were all in already, and draws are now getting 1:5 or better odds to call for their stack? Or what if we give the villan a double draw, increasing the odds that he can get his money in profitably? I know this situation is highly unlikely, but would it still be correct to push in with your set then?.... Could we ever devise a situation so it would be correct to fold your set against draws?
Nope. This it the worst case scenario, bottom set against an OESFD with TP

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 4d 5d 6s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.4646 % 45.56% 00.91% { 7d6d }
Hand 2: 53.5354 % 52.63% 00.91% { 4c4s }

getting it all in is still has +EV.
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Muxy
Old 03-11-2006, 06:50 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Stop being results oriented. Poker is not about results it is about the decisions.

Plus you also have 7 outs on the turn for a boat and 10 on the river.

You have re-draws for a better hands.
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eeeee
Old 03-12-2006, 12:38 AM #13 (permalink)  
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The beauty of the push is that sometimes some of his outs for the Flush also are some of yours for the FH. This significantly reduces his odds.
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strawman
Old 03-12-2006, 11:38 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muxy
Stop being results oriented. Poker is not about results it is about the decisions.
Isn't decision making what this thread is about? At no point did I mention the results of this hand.
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sejje
Old 03-12-2006, 11:42 PM #15 (permalink)  
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This might be one of those situations where the flush draw has value, but at the same time he's adding to your value by getting into the pot.

You can't really fault him for getting the money in with a flush draw here, but you can't induce any mistakes either. Him folding would be a mistake in most situations.
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strawman
Old 03-13-2006, 12:22 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sejje
This might be one of those situations where the flush draw has value, but at the same time he's adding to your value by getting into the pot.

You can't really fault him for getting the money in with a flush draw here, but you can't induce any mistakes either. Him folding would be a mistake in most situations.
I agree. I can't find fault in someone getting the correct odds to draw to their hand. However, if we were to follow T.F.T.O.P. example and both flipped our cards than there is definately a correct and incorrect way to continue the hand.

Considering some of the outs are negated, they aren't 2-1 to hit. In pushing the pot is 35 and if the other opponent folds (which they did), it cost 20 to call so they aren't even getting 2-1 from the pot. How is calling not a mistake here?
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Lukie
Old 03-14-2006, 02:50 AM #17 (permalink)  
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 What's the question?

T8x 2 tone flop, when you have a set, you don't want to give free cards. Get the money in and get it in fast. Hope that helps.
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Renton
Old 03-14-2006, 04:20 AM #18 (permalink)  
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 thats one of those situations where you and villain are making the right play.

The flush draw all in is acceptable in a three way all in since you are getting 2:1 on your money and you're about 2:1 to win.

Your all in with set is a good play because you also stand to win more often than your pot odds permit.

Basically both you and flush draw are profiting from the third all-in shmucks mistake. His equity is split amongst you and flush draw villain, with you gettting most of it.
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strawman
Old 03-14-2006, 07:45 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
thats one of those situations where you and villain are making the right play.

The flush draw all in is acceptable in a three way all in since you are getting 2:1 on your money and you're about 2:1 to win.
The third all-in schmuck as you put it was the first to go all in followed by two callers before it gets to me. When I pushed one of the callers dropped and the other called.

8 outs to the flush draw since the 4s is dead ~2.5-1
35 pot, 20 to call ~ 1.7-1
If villian calls, isn't his pot equity less than the call? Assuming villian believes the flush draw is good, 33% pot equity of 55 is ~18.
The set doesn't need improvement, however there are more outs for the set to improve in this situation than the draw. Additionally the set is ahead 3-1 here.

How is this a situation where both are making the correct play? If villians cards don't coordinate with the flop to add some extra value calling has to be theoretically incorrect.

From the villians perspective and ignoring what I'm holding, he's getting less than 2-1 so over the long term this is not just incorrect play, it's a legitimate mistake since there is no further value to extract from the hands after the flop.
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Lukie
Old 03-14-2006, 08:33 PM #20 (permalink)  
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 Renton,

Hero holds 8c 9c.

---

vs set and huge draw

Board: 2s Jc Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 00.0000 % 00.00% 00.00% { 7c6c }
Hand 2: 70.3212 % 70.32% 00.00% { 2c2d }
Hand 3: 29.6788 % 29.68% 00.00% { AcQc }

---

vs set and straight

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

903 games 0.005 secs 180,600 games/sec

Board: 8d 9c Qc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.4873 % 20.27% 00.22% { 7c6c }
Hand 2: 43.7431 % 43.52% 00.22% { JcTd }
Hand 3: 35.7697 % 35.55% 00.22% { 8c8s }

---

Who's the schmuck now? In a 3 way allin situation, a bare, non-nut draw does NOT have 33% equity just because you are roughly 2:1 against hitting. Your analysis (and mine too, admittingly, because there are so many factors to consider) is overly simplistic and flawed.
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