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set mining multiway?

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  1. #1

    Default set mining multiway?

    4nl effective stacks 3.50 Lets say we are on the Button with 88 and a MP player has raised to .16 and we flatted to set mine... then the SB raised to .50 and the MP calls. I usually use the 15x rule to setmine...in this situation do we count both villains stacks in our decision? Is this a call pre ?
  2. #2
    Easy fold. When deciding if we can setmine multi-way in a 3bet pot, look at the 3bettor's stats and stack. MP being in the hand might boost the pot, but it also doubles the chances that you lose with a set. It's highly unlikely you stack both, so focus on the one with the tighter range, ie SB who has squeezed. With just 3.50 eff stacks, it's a pretty easy fold.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Implied odds equation: (odds)*(bet) - (pot) < (ESS)
    ESS is effective stack size, but it's misleading. You don't necessarily expect all villains to stack off on you when you catch your set. ESS in this equation is really how much you can expect villains to call.

    Odds of flopping a set when you start w/ a pocket pair are 7.51:1. (I round it up to 8, but that's my choice to err on the side of caution, you seem to be rounding it to 15, which is extremely conservative in my view)

    1st call: odds = 8:1 = 8/1 = 8 ; bet = 0.16 ; pot = .02 + .04 + .16 = 0.22
    8*0.16 - 0.22 ?<? 3.5 ----> 1.06 < 3.5 TRUE
    You can make the call with implied odds, as long as you can get $1.06 more into the pot before you win (that's $1.06 that does NOT include your bets, i.e. $1.06 from villains).

    2nd call: odds = 8 ; bet = .50 - .16 = .34 ; pot = .02 + .04 + .16 + .16 + .48 + .34 = 1.20
    8*0.34 - 1.2 ?<? 3.5 ----> 2.70 < 3.5 TRUE
    You can make the call with implied odds, as long as you can get $2.70 more into the pot before you win (same caveat).

    As you can see here, the amount you need to get into the pot to justify a pot odds call is not dependent on the number of villains. You don't need to get that amount from each of them, you just need to get that total.
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Implied odds equation: (odds)*(bet) - (pot) < (ESS)
    ESS is effective stack size, but it's misleading. You don't necessarily expect all villains to stack off on you when you catch your set. ESS in this equation is really how much you can expect villains to call.

    Odds of flopping a set when you start w/ a pocket pair are 7.51:1. (I round it up to 8, but that's my choice to err on the side of caution, you seem to be rounding it to 15, which is extremely conservative in my view)

    1st call: odds = 8:1 = 8/1 = 8 ; bet = 0.16 ; pot = .02 + .04 + .16 = 0.22
    8*0.16 - 0.22 ?<? 3.5 ----> 1.06 < 3.5 TRUE
    You can make the call with implied odds, as long as you can get $1.06 more into the pot before you win (that's $1.06 that does NOT include your bets, i.e. $1.06 from villains).

    2nd call: odds = 8 ; bet = .50 - .16 = .34 ; pot = .02 + .04 + .16 + .16 + .48 + .34 = 1.20
    8*0.34 - 1.2 ?<? 3.5 ----> 2.70 < 3.5 TRUE
    You can make the call with implied odds, as long as you can get $2.70 more into the pot before you win (same caveat).

    As you can see here, the amount you need to get into the pot to justify a pot odds call is not dependent on the number of villains. You don't need to get that amount from each of them, you just need to get that total.
    Oh no I am not rounding anything to 15 lol the math is still over my head... I had just read on here in a thread about a simple rule to 15x the amount of the bet and if it was less than eff. stacks then you could profitably setmine... do you see an issue with this strategy?
  5. #5
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    which is extremely conservative in my view
    I am not going to bother to calculate the pre-flop odds for various pockets, 'cause I don't have to. You can find pre-flop odds tables online and in poker books that were created by more competent mathematicians than me.

    The implied odds equation can be re-written as this (maybe more intuitive):
    (odds)*(bet) < (pot) + (ESS).

    The (odds)*(bet) is how much we need to win to make the right call.
    E.g. if the odds are 8:1, then we need to win 8 times our bet to break even w/ 0EV.

    We want the amount already in the pot (pot) plus the amount we can get our opponents to put in the pot (ESS) to be greater than our 0EV win.

    Therefore, we want the (odds)*(bet) to be less than (pot) + (ESS)


    Does this math make sense to you now?
    Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 04-25-2012 at 02:19 PM.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    I am not going to bother to calculate the pre-flop odds for various pockets, 'cause I don't have to. You can find pre-flop odds tables online and in poker books that were created by more competent mathematicians than me.

    The implied odds equation can be re-written as this (maybe more intuitive):
    (odds)*(bet) < (pot) + (ESS).

    The (odds)*(bet) is how much we need to win to make the right call.
    E.g. if the odds are 8:1, then we need to win 8 times our bet to break even w/ 0EV.

    We want the amount already in the pot (pot) plus the amount we can get our opponents to put in the pot (ESS) to be greater than our 0EV win.

    Therefore, we want the (odds)*(bet) to be less than (pot) + (ESS)


    Does this math make sense to you now?
    yes it does!! thanks...but one more question how do you determine the ESS?? is there a website?
  7. #7
    DoubleJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    you seem to be rounding it to 15, which is extremely conservative in my view
    That's because you're not taking into account the times you'll hit your set and not get paid off, or hit your set and still lose.

    Hence the 15x "rule".
    don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
  8. #8
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    ESS = Effective Stack Size
    ESS is the minimum stack size of all players in the pot. If you have $30, but your opponent only has $15, then ESS is $15. If you bet more than this, the villain can only call the $15.

    HOWEVER, and I mentioned this before, ESS in the implied odds equation is misleading because it assumes villains will stack off when you catch your set. It assumes that ALL of their range will call if you shove (and it assumes your set will win 100% of the time). Balancing this, it also assumes you have 0 equity in your PP when you don't catch your set.

    For the purposes of implied odds, it's best to use a modified ESS. Replace it with the amount of villain's chips you think you can get them to call.

    In the example above, at the flop, the pot was $1.54. You needed to get another $2.70 that is not your chips in there to make a +EV set mine. With 2 villains, $2.70/2 = $1.35. IF both villains will call a bet of $1.35 on the flop, then you are good. If one of them calls and one folds, then you must bet at least $1.35 again to make a +EV mine. (And, as OngBonga was getting at, you have to win the pot.) If both of them fold, you win. That's a +EV hand , but, unfortunately, a -EV play .
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Implied odds equation: (odds)*(bet) - (pot) < (ESS)
    ESS is effective stack size, but it's misleading. You don't necessarily expect all villains to stack off on you when you catch your set. ESS in this equation is really how much you can expect villains to call.

    Odds of flopping a set when you start w/ a pocket pair are 7.51:1. (I round it up to 8, but that's my choice to err on the side of caution, you seem to be rounding it to 15, which is extremely conservative in my view)

    1st call: odds = 8:1 = 8/1 = 8 ; bet = 0.16 ; pot = .02 + .04 + .16 = 0.22
    8*0.16 - 0.22 ?<? 3.5 ----> 1.06 < 3.5 TRUE
    You can make the call with implied odds, as long as you can get $1.06 more into the pot before you win (that's $1.06 that does NOT include your bets, i.e. $1.06 from villains).

    2nd call: odds = 8 ; bet = .50 - .16 = .34 ; pot = .02 + .04 + .16 + .16 + .48 + .34 = 1.20
    8*0.34 - 1.2 ?<? 3.5 ----> 2.70 < 3.5 TRUE
    You can make the call with implied odds, as long as you can get $2.70 more into the pot before you win (same caveat).

    As you can see here, the amount you need to get into the pot to justify a pot odds call is not dependent on the number of villains. You don't need to get that amount from each of them, you just need to get that total.
    nice post!

    gotigers:
    i think it depends alot on stats aswell, if SB is squeeze happy, and opener is a station in 3bet pots its a easy call. if theyre solid, easy fold. i think you got the answer you were looking for though, about the math part of it.
    "The harder you work, the luckier you get." ~ courtesy of my fortune cookie from china king

    "One of the best pieces of advice I've ever read in this forum was three words long...

    bet fucking fold." Ong
  10. #10
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    ja just fold here
    calling the first raise is probably ok, but only if you also considered raising or folding

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