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Set on draw-filled turn facing aggression

  
 
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NightGizmo
Old 06-29-2010, 06:10 AM     Post subject: Set on draw-filled turn facing aggression #1 (permalink)  
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 BB is 28/13/36% over the first 32 hands, and has flat called a few flop bets already. SB is 34/27/57% over 44 hands.

My flop bet was to try to take down the pot without any resistance. I suspect the BB is calling with a draw, which means he either has 2 spades, a 6, an 8, or some combo draw. I don't know what to think of the check/min-raise on the turn -- is he bluffing with a strong draw (maybe after picking up a diamond draw to go with his straight draw?) or did he make his straight and chose to min-raise rather than push all-in?


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saw flop

Hero (UTG) ($5.91)
MP ($1.92)
Button ($7.13)
SB ($7.88)
BB ($3.64)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with ,
Hero bets $0.20, 2 folds, SB calls $0.18, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.60) , , (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.35, 1 fold, BB calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.30) (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, BB raises to $1.80, Hero ????
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Tasha
Old 06-29-2010, 08:48 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Your Turn bet should probably have been bigger.
Anyway, I think you have a 20% chance of getting a full house on the River and calling the bet gives you 18% pot odds. It is a bit close but probably worth it.
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JKDS
Old 06-29-2010, 10:23 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Flop bet is for value.

Betting 88 here just to 'take the pot' is just you being afraid to play poker. I know, because i used to until about about a week ago. This reasoning is best used when we have a bluff, because theres no other value anywhere else. With 88 on this flop though, we actually have a surprisingly good amount of equity against most hands that call.

For instance, flush draws and straight draws are gonna be hard pressed to fold. 5x, and 7x might call as well. 66 probably does too, and maybe some other stubborn pairs. Add in that we'll have a good 6 outs to improve whenever we're behind and that we're in position and the flop becomes a really easy place to value bet.

When you bet this turn, you should have already decided that you were getting it in. Thinking about his range here, flush draws still call, middlish pairs without a draw dont anymore, and many hands improved to a two pair or a straight and are probably gonna get it in. So if we bet, we're basically saying that we think these hands make up a larger portion of his range than hands better than ours (straights, 99?) so we've already figured that we're ahead and stacking off.

I probably bet the turn as well, and i stack off every time expecting to see some bizzare JJ, TT hands sometimes, some weaker sets sometimes, and some 98, 87 type hands in addition to all those 6x's often enough to be happy.
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Outlaw
Old 06-29-2010, 11:54 AM #4 (permalink)  
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At 5NL he might do this with 2-pair.. so just call and if you don't fill up, re evaluate
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Imthenewfish
Old 06-29-2010, 05:39 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tasha View Post
Your Turn bet should probably have been bigger.Anyway, I think you have a 20% chance of getting a full house on the River and calling the bet gives you 18% pot odds. It is a bit close but probably worth it.
Please give some reasoning.
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spoonitnow
Old 06-29-2010, 08:27 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 I think the turn bet size is fine. As played, it's going to leave us with $2.19 in a pot of about $3.10 before the rake if Villain calls. If we go too much bigger, then more worse hands start folding, etc.

We're never folding the turn because we're getting 4.44:1 pot odds and we only need 3.6:1 to make calling profitable if we check/fold every river that doesn't improve our hand.

I think shoving is bad since we stand to be behind his calling range a lot of the time. Calling is great because we know it's super profitable, plus we get to play the river in position with one bet left in the hand in a big pot where it's not very easy to make mistakes.
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NightGizmo
Old 06-29-2010, 08:55 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
Flop bet is for value.

Betting 88 here just to 'take the pot' is just you being afraid to play poker. I know, because i used to until about about a week ago. This reasoning is best used when we have a bluff, because theres no other value anywhere else. With 88 on this flop though, we actually have a surprisingly good amount of equity against most hands that call.
Umm... that makes way too much sense. You're right, I get a lot of value from my opponents' ranges when they call.
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NightGizmo
Old 06-30-2010, 09:44 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
Calling is great because we know it's super profitable, plus we get to play the river in position with one bet left in the hand in a big pot where it's not very easy to make mistakes.
OK, so I called the min-raise on the turn. River: the pot is $4.90, card is the Ks, villain bets all-in with his remaining $1.34.

I only need to be good here 17.7% of the time, but with this crazy of a board against someone who has not been very aggressive in previous hands (although over an admittedly small sample), I think he shows up with a straight or flush almost always.

Is that playing too scared and this should be a call expecting to snap off a bluff, two-pair, or worse set at least 17.7% of the time? Or was the turn call strictly made to try for the boat or c/c on the river, and since those both failed we now fold?

Taking a quick stab at this, assuming he shoves with any two pair or better plus a few bluffs:

Hands I beat:
55 - 3
77 - 3
78 - 3
89 - 3
missed draws bluff (est): 3
TOTAL: 15

Hands that beat me:
66 - 6
99 - 3
56 - 12
67 - 12
TJ - 16
spade draws (AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A7, KQ, KJ, KT, QT, QJ): 10
TOTAL: 59

Giving me 20.2% equity, making this a call. But another draw was completed on the river, so I don't know if we should count all of the hands I beat -- he may check back some of them. If we remove 3 hands from the hands I beat, I no longer have the odds to call.

Anyway, let me know what you think.
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supa
Old 06-30-2010, 10:33 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 I'm not sure villains range is this wide, imho.If we take out some of the spade draws and 56,67 combos we're way better off.

Also,I get 1.34/(1.34+4.90)=21.4%
So am I missing something?
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littleogre
Old 07-01-2010, 12:13 AM #10 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by Outlaw View Post
At 5NL he might do this with 2-pair.. so just call and if you don't fill up, re evaluate
Just curious exactly what river cards are you folding to? Anyway i would say he isn't bluffing. He likely has a str8 2p or a set or an over pair. Since we are only scared of str8s. I would find it real hard to fold at any point.
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littleogre
Old 07-01-2010, 12:21 AM #11 (permalink)  

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 oh and flushes but i'm still calling the turn raise. Probably calling the river as well unless he makes a huge over bet as big bets on the river are usually the nuts at micro poker.
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NightGizmo
Old 07-01-2010, 01:22 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre View Post
oh and flushes but i'm still calling the turn raise. Probably calling the river as well unless he makes a huge over bet as big bets on the river are usually the nuts at micro poker.
He couldn't overbet on the river -- he only had 1.34 and the pot is 4.90. So on the turn, you call and expect to call any bet on the river?
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NightGizmo
Old 07-01-2010, 01:25 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by supahaole View Post
I'm not sure villains range is this wide, imho.If we take out some of the spade draws and 56,67 combos we're way better off.

Also,I get 1.34/(1.34+4.90)=21.4%
So am I missing something?
It's 1.34/(1.34+1.34+4.90) -- the total pot size has to include his bet and my call.

True, I did include too many 56/67 combos, I should have only included the suited ones. That removes 18 combos from the hands that beat me, making a call even more compelling.
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littleogre
Old 07-01-2010, 05:28 AM #14 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by NightGizmo View Post
He couldn't overbet on the river -- he only had 1.34 and the pot is 4.90. So on the turn, you call and expect to call any bet on the river?
Well a 4th spade would be a little scary. Cause now if he has a spade in his hand with some big over pair then he would have sucked out. In general i think a 4th spade on the river is about the worst card for us. any other card then yes i'm happy to call
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philly and the phanatics
Old 07-01-2010, 06:13 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by littleogre View Post
Well a 4th spade would be a little scary. Cause now if he has a spade in his hand with some big over pair then he would have sucked out. In general i think a 4th spade on the river is about the worst card for us. any other card then yes i'm happy to call
yea if there was a river card that could somehow be two spades in one, id be petrified
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littleogre
Old 07-02-2010, 06:22 PM #16 (permalink)  

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yea if there was a river card that could somehow be two spades in one, id be petrified
Not sure what yu are talking about but a 4th spade on the river hurts the op more then it helps him. Sure t gives him a flush but when dealing with 1 card flushes 8 high rarely wins. if you don't think a spade is the worst possible river what do you think the worst possible river is? As played i think villain has a str8 or a set. The old call flop raise turn is usually a big hand.
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philly and the phanatics
Old 07-02-2010, 06:50 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Not sure what yu are talking about but a 4th spade on the river hurts the op more then it helps him. Sure t gives him a flush but when dealing with 1 card flushes 8 high rarely wins. if you don't think a spade is the worst possible river what do you think the worst possible river is? As played i think villain has a str8 or a set. The old call flop raise turn is usually a big hand.
there are only 2 spades on the board..................

that being said a T or a non-7 (7 of spades would probably be the best) spade would probably be the worst rivers, but either way any river that does not help him improve is pretty bad and he is not looking to hot against this board
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