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Serious, for me, Cbet analysis with HH..

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Chopper

11-19-2009, 01:42 AM Post subject: Serious, for me, Cbet analysis with HH..

#1 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

bear with me, ive never done this much analysis before inside a hand...

hh...street by street thoughts below hh...

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($13.90)
Hero ($7.80)
BTN ($10)
SB ($28.45)
BB ($31.80)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop:

($0.95, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

Turn:

($2.15, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River:

($2.15, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

read...villain is 33/30/1.5 and i havent observed much yet.

flats pre...i am assigning 22-99,A2s-AJs, K9s-KQs,Q9s-QJs,45s-JTs,75s-J9s, A9o-AJo, K9o-KQo,Q9o-QJo,JTo...22%ish. obviously, i didnt put 3betting hands in here since he called my raise.

i feel i have equity in this flop, especially with the Ad so i fire 2/3ish as cbet (i suppose it should be more), but i dont want to deny one card diamonds from coming along.

when he calls, i assume he calls with small/mid diamond flushes, one card diamonds with a pair or 8, sets (i think they wait to raise until turn from this guy), any 7-T, and maybe some piece with the 6 like 66. underpairs should fold and complete air. i figured two pair hands would protect with a raise, so i took them out of his range once he called.

turn, i lost my equity here and likely should c/c. there is just so much he could call with in retrospect.

river, i dont think i can blow anything significant out that called a cbet so i plan to c/f. i suppose i could force out whiffed straight draws that have a 4th diamond, but i dont know if that will bluff and force me to fold.

analysis: i ran stove on these ranges and his 22% preflop range gives me a 60/40 edge on the flop. i figured he only folded the worst third of his range (air/underpairs). anything left has a nice edge on me now and i shift to a 55/45 dog.

i looked at what may be "good" turn cards for me, and i couldnt find any other than diamonds and the A (but that may make aces up for a couple if his possibilites). virtually any brick is a bad card for my equity, too (but i didnt think about that on the flop).

so, after looking at this, i concluded this is NOT the board to cbet. i am oop, turn likely kills any equity i have, so i cant 2barrel anything and i am not folding enough of his range off to avoid a tough turn decision.

however, c/c'ing this flop would probably be mandatory because of my equity, and i can re-eval on the turn and fold to a 2nd barrel on a brick? would a c/r do any good? it would certainly fold a lot of marginal cbetting stuff, but i doubt it folds stronger redraws and actually begs for a push from a flopped flush/set.

is this solid thinking and range assessment, or am i flawed still?

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Gobbatino

11-19-2009, 06:53 AM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2009

Posts: 341

I believe you can work on your subrange a bit more. 22% is good to begin with but nutty hands like small flushes, sets, straights are raising your flop bet a lot and you hold a gutshot, flush draw and overcards vs the rest of his range. A second barrel would be decent here on the turn, imo.

Chopper

11-19-2009, 01:03 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gobbatino

from my point of view, the flushes would wait a street because that's what passives do on flops. they dont bet or raise until they are sure they are best. marginal stuff, like baby flushes, get called with until the 4th card doesnt hit. i figured 2pr would be scared of other flushes and straights and would raise as soon as it could.

the thing i am trying to understand with the 2nd barrel is what does it fold that didnt already fold to the flop bet? baby flushes are not folding. sets/2pr (if there) arent folding. i dont even think this station-type player folds any pair with a diamond because "you never know."

lots of times aggression doesnt phase these guys. so, i felt it was spew to fire again, especially oop when i am not firing a bricked river.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Gobbatino

11-19-2009, 02:38 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2009

Posts: 341

Quote:

the thing i am trying to understand with the 2nd barrel is what does it fold that didnt already fold to the flop bet?

Depends on how stationy he is and your table image, I suppose, but weak pairs, Tx, 9x, 88, etc, I'd say. Also if he calls a turn bet his range becomes way narrow, easy to play correctly against.

edit: I may be talking BS here.

dtan05

11-20-2009, 10:36 PM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Nov 2009

Posts: 16

didn't read your analysis but just 3 barrel here. if he had a strong hand, he woulda raised the flop. since we know he has a drawy hand, your 3 barrel looks super strong, and his calling range should be almost nonexistent on the river.

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