Semi-Bluffing Quiz Thing

Edit: Err we hold 7c6c on Ac5h3c

<spoonitnow> the pot is $20 and you have $90 behind
<spoonitnow> you shove
<spoonitnow> villain's calling range is {AJ+, 33, 55, AA}
<spoonitnow> assume no rake
<spoonitnow> how often does he have to fold for your shove to be +EV

81%of the time he has to fold

What's our equity? With zero equity, >81%, amirite?

I'm new here. Well, at least posting. My uncle used to come here alot, or at least used to tell me about you all. Been checking stuff out since he passed - kinda got me interested in learning more you know. Figured I'd make my own account and post some myself, so will probably be wrong but would like to take a shot.

Since I don't know my cards, I don't know how much equity I have against his range, right? So, his calling range doesn't matter. I'm risking 90 to win 110, or 81%. So with any two cards, I need him to fold more than 81% of the time to make this +EV.

Sorry if that's completely off. But that's my thought at least.

Whoops forgot to copy the board etc.

EV=f*$20+(1-f)*(0.4418*$110-0.5582*$90)

Solving for EV=0 to find the breakeven point: f=0.07578 or 7.58%

So he only has to fold 7.58% of the time to make the shove +EV. This makes sense because our equity against his calling range is pretty good (44+%), so he doesn't have to fold very much at all for the shove to be +EV.

Wowowowow way to do shit the hard way, check my mathematics of ev thread for a massive shortcut

Assuming he has us covered
EV shove = equity*(20 + 180)*(%call) + (%fold)(110)- 90
and then just solve

Breakeven fold frequency is risk/(risk+pot) with risk = $90 - 0.4418*$200 = $1.64 ($200 is the final pot after opp calls)

1.64/(1.64+20)=7.58%

Originally Posted by Razvan729

i dont think its correct. 7,58% cant be correct. look why:

math for 100 hands:

he folds 7.58% so we win when he folds 7,58*20=151.6 $

the rest of 92.42% he calls. from this procent we win (4 outs) 16% =14.78%

so the math is shove 90 and we win 14.78*110=1625.8 $

and we lose when we shove (92.42-14.78)*90=6987 $


conclusion= win 1774 $ and lose 6987 $ ... where is the + EV? or is my math wrong somewhere?

Where do you get that we have only 4 outs? We have a flush draw and a gutshot straight draw. If all outs were clean, that would be 12 outs, or about 44% equity (12*4 - 4). A little less because we could be outflushed, or he could make a full house, a little more because we could make backdoor two pairs or trips or straight, so 44% is about right. Just run our hand against his range in Pokerstove and you will see that this is close.

my mistake, redone math with 13outs( gutshot + FD) and we are still 20 $ losing, i deleted the post by mistake. sorry i didnt read op post right.

Originally Posted by daviddem

Breakeven fold frequency is risk/(risk+pot) with risk = $90 - 0.4418*$200 = $1.64 ($200 is the final pot after opp calls)

1.64/(1.64+20)=7.58%

Thattaboy.

Now estimate the EV of checking (assuming we're IP, then again assuming we're OOP) and decide for what fold frequencies is shoving > checking.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

my mistake, redone math with 13outs( gutshot + FD) and we are still 20 $ losing, i deleted the post by mistake. sorry i didnt read op post right.

Then somehow your math is wrong.

First a FD + gutshot is 12 outs, not 13, because the 4 of club is a gutshot out but also a flush out, and you cannot count it twice.

Read this to figure out how to do EV calculations properly:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ad-180192.html
and read Sklansky's "no limit theory and practice" and Spoon's blog for more advanced calculations.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

my mistake, redone math with 13outs( gutshot + FD) and we are still 20 $ losing, i deleted the post by mistake. sorry i didnt read op post right.

It's easier to use the equity from a program like PokerStove than to use the manual outs since sometimes some of our outs improve him too etc.

Now estimate the EV of checking (assuming we're IP, then again assuming we're OOP) and decide for what fold frequencies is shoving > checking.

One simple way to look at this is "what happens if the hand is checked to showdown no matter what". Let's conservatively assume that his range is still {AJ+, 33, 55, AA}.

We have 44.18% equity so our EV when the hand is checked down is 0.4418*$20=$8.836

As stated above, the EV of shoving if his folding frequency is f is EV=f*$20+(1-f)*(0.4418*$110-0.5582*$90) = 20*f-1.64*(1-f) = 21.64*f - 1.64 (or in terms of risk: EV=(risk+pot)*f - risk)

So when is 21.64*f - 1.64 > 8.836? for f > 0.4841 or 48.41%

Of course, the above scenario is simplistic. More realistically, we could for example assume that when we are IP and we check behind, he will bet any turn card that is not a flush/straight out, and we will have to fold. If we hit one of our outs though, we do not get any more money out of him. In this case, we hit our hand on the turn about 24% of the time and win the $20 pot. In all other cases, we win nothing. So EV=0.24*20=$4.8 and by the same math as above we find f > 0.2976.

OOP is more complicated. What part of his range does he bet if we check to him, can we call based on implied odds, etc? I see no simple way to model this without more info.

Now consider implications for balance! =)

Now consider implications for balance! =)

So as a rough estimate let's say that in a vacuum betting/shoving is better than checking if opp only folds 1/3rd of the time.

On top of that, if we bet/shove more often with semi-bluffs, we will get called more often when we do the same with a strong made hand, so this also makes us monies in the long run.

I must be doing something wrong...

EV of a call = -1.64 and Villian is only calling with 9 hands.

Meaning if we add only one hand to our opponents range, he's folding Calling 9/10 times for an ev of -1.64, but that tenth time, he's folding, and we win 20 for better than break even odds. This situation only gets sweeter, as we realize he's opening WAY more hands.

I don't see why Daviddem is suggesting opponent has to fold 1/3rd of the time. Unless he means 1/3rd of 1 hand.

Implications for balance? In this situation, opponent is calling way too tight, so you should be shoving all the time. Also: As opponent tries to adjust once he's seen your capable of this, adding your own hands to the mix such as 2pair and sets, means he's calling in situations where he's hopeless.

Basically if you have a set, or 2pair, you can also shove those in this spot which your opponent will be more likely to call, because he's seen you go into hypermode with a gutshot flushdraw.

Also: This seems to suggest that 4.5x the pot is a pretty serious number to have committed to memory when it comes to GSFD's.

I don't see why Daviddem is suggesting opponent has to fold 1/3rd of the time. Unless he means 1/3rd of 1 hand.

That's because of post #15 above, where I found that shoving is better than checking behind IP if opp folds at least 30% of his checking range to a shove.

Not sure where you are getting "EV of a call = -1.64 and Villian is only calling with 9 hands." What bet are you talking about that we are calling here? And where do you get 9 hands for villain's calling range? He has 45 combos in his calling range if I counted correctly (12x AK, 12x AQ, 12x AJ, 3x 33, 3x 55, 3x AA).

Originally Posted by daviddem

That's because of post #15 above, where I found that shoving is better than checking behind IP if opp folds at least 30% of his checking range to a shove.

Not sure where you are getting "EV of a call = -1.64 and Villian is only calling with 9 hands." What bet are you talking about that we are calling here? And where do you get 9 hands for villain's calling range? He has 45 combos in his calling range if I counted correctly (12x AK, 12x AQ, 12x AJ, 3x 33, 3x 55, 3x AA).

I don't think Counting Combos changes anything here.

Because if you fold KK you're folding 4 combos of KK which is still roughly 9% of the combos, meaning we're still getting 20.00 for his fold 1 out of 10 times. And if he has a combo of AT which our opponent is folding there are like 12 combos of that which are being folded which will balance out the paired combos.

We still make money if our opponent ever has a wider range that he's getting into the hand with, than what he's folding in this instance. I think.

What in the hell are you two talking about?