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Cavalry21
Old 03-15-2005, 03:59 PM     Post subject: Seeing Flops #1 (permalink)  
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There's been alot of talk lately about the % of flops someone sees, and if its good or bad, too high, too low, tight, loose, ect.

Sooo, I was think about trying to "prove" mathmatically (I'm an engineer so sue me) what some goals for my % should be. I started with this chart, based upon the starting hands on FTR home page.

* Warning, if math makes your head hurt, stop reading now

For this, I assumed a full table ring game. Short handed and Tourney play are also going to cause major changes. It also assumes only 1% of my raises get fold back to me.

Group 0 & 1....see flop 99% of time regardless of position/table.
Group 2..........limp early, raise or call mid to late position
Group 3..........limp early and mid, raise/call late.
Group 4-7.......limp

Group 1: AA KK QQ JJ AKs
Group 2: TT AK AQs AJs KQs
Group 3: AQ 99 ATs KJs QJs KTs
Group 4: 88 AJ KQ QTs A9s JTs AT A8s
Group 5: KJ 77 QJ KT QT JT A7s K9s Q9s T9s J9s
Group 6: 66 55 44 33 22 A5s A6s A4s A3s A2s
Group 7: A9 K9 98s 87s 76s Kxs T8s 97s 74s 86s 54s

I then took the odds to get each hand preflop, based on these odds

Group 0/1: 2.11%-------------------------A specific pair (AA) .45%
Group 2: 2.55%---------------------------2 specific suited (AKs) .3%
Group 3: 2.55%---------------------------2 specific non-suited (AKo) .9%
Group 4: 4.35%
Group 5: 6.45%
Group 6: 3.75%
Group 7: 7.80%

Finally I broke it up into three types of tables
Aggresive (75% PFR)
Medium (50% PFR)
Passive (25% PFR)

Then I calced the chance to see the flop based upon position and table.

IE Group 3, Medium Table would be limp from early position 17% of the time (50% no PFR, 33% in Early Position) + raise call in mid/late (33% each) = 83% of the time you should see the flop with Group 3.

Then multiplied times the chances of dealt group 3 (2.55%) = 2.1% hands will fall in this category. Add all groups for each table type and got this.

Passive : 23%
Medium : 17%
Aggressive : 11%

OK so why am I telling you this. I'd like some advice on if you think this is good methodology? Is the 25,50,75 PFR % realistic? I plan to sit and think thru the hands alot more and djust the groups and when I'd play, the point being to give me targets to use when analyzing play.

See the complete chart here
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ilikeaces86
Old 03-15-2005, 05:39 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I am so confused.
 
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journey075
Old 03-15-2005, 05:51 PM #3 (permalink)  
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speaking as a math major....what?
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whileone
Old 03-15-2005, 08:52 PM     Post subject: Re: Seeing Flops #4 (permalink)  
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whileone
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cavalry21
Passive : 23%
Medium : 17%
Aggressive : 11%
I'm not a math guy. But, I think I get what you're saying.

I don't think you want to vary your starting hand requirements with agression. you want to vary your starting hands with how tight or loose the table is. at a very loose table, you can see more cards than normal, and still be playing better cards than the rest of the table. you generaly want to be a bit tighter than the table.

At some point, the table is so super tight, you can raise lots of crap to steal blinds, but you're probably better off just switching tables.
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giantdogs92
Old 03-16-2005, 12:49 AM #5 (permalink)  
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i hate math but i knida get it
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dsaxton
Old 03-16-2005, 01:41 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I tend to see 22% of flops at a table. I have been raising with a lot of junk lately, though, so that has probably changed.
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