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SB - AK w/ TPTK facing aggression

  
 
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Vinland
Old 07-22-2010, 04:29 AM     Post subject: SB - AK w/ TPTK facing aggression #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain only played about 30 hands with me. He was running 24/13/1.5
He had attempted to steal blinds from the BTN each turn (only 3 tries) so I 3bet a little smaller in SB than usual b/c I feel I am ahead of his range so much and dont want to blow him out.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($17.98)
CO ($5.04)
villain (Button) ($11.91)
Hero (SB) ($10.15)
BB ($10.46)
UTG ($10.30)
MP1 ($19.75)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K
4 folds, villain bets $0.40, Hero raises $1.25, 1 fold, villain calls $0.90
Flop: ($2.70) K, 6, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $1.90, villain raises $3.80, Hero calls $1.90

I put his range on higher end FD's (like AJs and ATs) and AJ, AK, KQ, QQ+ and 66 I call the reraise incase he is semibluffing the FD's and str8 draw and I am ahead. He probably would 4bet KK+ preflop but that isnt for sure so I will keep it in his range

Turn: ($10.30) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, villain bets $2.90, Hero ?

I see no point in betting for value anymore (am I wrong?) and bets, leaving himself with an easy shove on the river.
With the range I give him I figure I have about 17% equity and I just dont see myself beating all that much.
Can I fold with a smile?
I confess in quicksand
 
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dneureiter
Old 07-22-2010, 07:39 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I don't think we can actually call the minraise on flop w/o a read that he does that lightly or without a plan for the turn. We can't really c/f turn if we call flop unless we know villain won't fire again, which is unlikely because we look very weak now. So I guess folding flop is what I'd go for without reads. I mean the nonclub 10 isn't even a very scary turn and we're still aiming to c/f..

 
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Carroters
Old 07-22-2010, 09:59 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 I'd just get it in on the flop and expect to see worse top pairs and draws easily enough of the time. As played don't fold the turn for this price, yes the T kinda sucks but his bet sizing is lame and laying you awesome odds to only need the best hand like 20% of the time, you have easily more than 17% equity vs this sizing when he can still have shit like KJ, FDs, etc. I'd expect him to bet a hand like 2 pair much harder.

Folding to the flop raise is horrible here unless he's extremly passive, he's evidently not.

 
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kiwiMark
Old 07-22-2010, 10:19 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 I don't think you're gonna blow out any hands preflop with a raise to $1.60 instead of the raise to $1.25.

With what range is he flatting your flop cbet?


Edit: Also, on the turn you have 30% equity against the range you said he raises flop with, unless I'm messing up?
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Hoopy
Old 07-22-2010, 01:02 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 His 3bet calling range probably won't change with any amount <$2, so bigger is better.

On the flop I think he min-raises a wider range than you think (combo draws, air, maybe a hand like JJ to "see where he's at"), 1 king is out and we have AK so KK+ is discounted.

We can value shove the flop vs his calling range (59% equity).

66, AK, Ac9c, AcTc, AcJc, KT+, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c
 
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philly and the phanatics
Old 07-22-2010, 03:41 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
I'd just get it in on the flop and expect to see worse top pairs and draws easily enough of the time. As played don't fold the turn for this price, yes the T kinda sucks but his bet sizing is lame and laying you awesome odds to only need the best hand like 20% of the time, you have easily more than 17% equity vs this sizing when he can still have shit like KJ, FDs, etc. I'd expect him to bet a hand like 2 pair much harder.

Folding to the flop raise is horrible here unless he's extremly passive, he's evidently not.
i thought it only worked like that if it was an all in or a river bet that closed the action, because we still have another street of betting that we havent taken into account. I know you want greater than 50% equity to value bet, idk about a call though essentially we are peeling.

That being said, i agree get it in on the flop. As played if you call you are going to have 2.25 behind (not much lol)and the pot is goign to be about 16 dollars, so i cannot imagine a river that you are folding?
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Tasha
Old 07-22-2010, 04:16 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 If you figure you have 17% equity, then the fold sounds good.
Also, your pot odds are 4.9:1 so he is denying you that as well.
It looks to me as though he has put you on range and got it quite accurate.
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Icanhastreebet
Old 07-22-2010, 05:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tasha View Post
If you figure you have 17% equity, then the fold sounds good.
Also, your pot odds are 4.9:1 so he is denying you that as well.
It looks to me as though he has put you on range and got it quite accurate.
No he didn`t

Shove the flop. Games easy
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surviva316
Old 07-22-2010, 06:43 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 don't get the argument that he opens the BU a lot so we should price him in when we have the nuts. all that him opening every BU means is that we should 3b a balanced size so that we can both bluff and go for value in this spot. anywhere from 1.20-1.30 seems good.
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