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Rudimentary Implied Odds Question

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strawman

08-03-2006, 06:13 PM Post subject: Rudimentary Implied Odds Question

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 207

Now that I am thinking about things differently I guess I should re-evaluate what I am thinking about in the first place. The topic today is implied odds and justifying an opponents call. There is $3.50 in the pot on the turn and villian puts in another min bet which I raise. So at this point there is $9 in the pot and it cost villian $4.75 to call. So the pot odds are about 1.9 and assuming villian is on a back door flush draw here he would need a pot of $19, so in this situation in order to not justify the flush draw Hero would need to put in less than $10 on the river.

---------
And now the edit- I'm not looking so much at this as a hand history as a tool of trying to develope EV models of situations I am finding myself in. The hands here are as follows:
Hero has A9s
Villian has K9c

------------------

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($42.25)
Hero ($33.90)

Flop: ($1) 7

, 9

, A

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1.5, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $1.

Turn: ($3.50) 5

(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.25, Hero raises to $5.25, UTG+1 calls $4.75.

River: ($13.50) 2

(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Final Pot: $33.50

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LeFou

08-03-2006, 06:17 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Dallas, TX

Posts: 2,361

hm... tough one.

Assuming you have :

, I'd raise the river.

Wanna fix it?

strawman

08-03-2006, 06:21 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 207

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeFou

hm... tough one.

Assuming you have :

, I'd raise the river.

Wanna fix it?

Need to talk to my editor. And he is talking to my lawyer...

CrunchyNuts

08-03-2006, 07:02 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Posts: 436

So the question is did the villain do the right thing calling the turn raise, right?

He had to pay 19BB into an ~35BB pot, with the lowest stack (hero's) remaining at about 110BB. He, if thinking, knows he only wins if he hits the flush, so he's got 9 outs (only 8 are clean, but he doesn't know that), giving about a 20% chance of taking the hand. He's paying 19BB, so with 20% to win, he needs to be winning 5x that, or about 100BB. Pot is only 35BB, so implied needs to be worth 65BB coming out of you. You have 110BB behind, so if he can stack you it's good - but flushes are pretty easy to see, it's unlikely that a stacking is going to happen here.

As it turns out, he hit and only extracted 40BB from you. If that was the plan, then the turn was -EV for him.

Up my bankroll - buy Saints Row.

strawman

08-03-2006, 10:10 PM

#5 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Oct 2005

Posts: 207

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrunchyNuts

He had to pay 19BB into an ~35BB pot, with the lowest stack (hero's) remaining at about 110BB. He, if thinking, knows he only wins if he hits the flush, so he's got 9 outs (only 8 are clean, but he doesn't know that), giving about a 20% chance of taking the hand. He's paying 19BB, so with 20% to win, he needs to be winning 5x that, or about 100BB. Pot is only 35BB, so implied needs to be worth 65BB coming out of you. You have 110BB behind, so if he can stack you it's good - but flushes are pretty easy to see, it's unlikely that a stacking is going to happen here.

As it turns out, he hit and only extracted 40BB from you. If that was the plan, then the turn was -EV for him.

Villian gets the 36BB in the pot and another 40BB from me by calling the 19BB bet. So in his bet on the end he has actually undercharged himself slightly for the draw becuase he loses 19BB * 4 for 76 and only gets 75BB once since one of the BBs went to the rake. If he wouldn't have given me 2.3-1 on the end he most likely wouldn't have even gotten that. Which brings up another excercise I am working on. EV expressions for these situations.

As of the turn is it really worth trying to figure out just how -EV the call is since there are a multitude of factors or is simpler to just take the most likely draw and work from there as in this example. I'd like to sit down and pen out an equation but the exactness of it would probably far off. It's probably easier to say 4/5 he misses the flush and if you only pay out this much you didn't justify the call when he does, .10 they'll hit the 9 or K and lose their stack, .15 they might bluff off this much on the end etc. without getting a precise EV.

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