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PKKFW
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09-05-2011, 09:08 AM
Post subject: River sizing?
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 244
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Villain is 66/33 over 6 hands and hasn't been to show down so not much to go on.
Simple question........river sizing?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($3.55)
SB ($13.87)
BB ($17.49)
UTG ($16.36)
Hero (UTG+1) ($12.25)
MP1 ($9.40)
MP2 ($3.90)
MP3 ($4.05)
CO ($10.60)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q , Q
1 fold, Hero bets $0.40, MP1 calls $0.40, 6 folds
Flop: ($0.95) Q , 7 , K (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75
Turn: ($2.45) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.80, MP1 calls $1.80
River: ($6.05) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets??
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daviddem
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Philippines/Saudi Arabia
Posts: 983
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Shove it, no reason to mess about.
Since he has fishy stats, maybe bet closer to pot on previous streets.
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Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
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acg123
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 180
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His stats mean squadouche in all reality. I think his range is Kx,busted FD,MAYBE a 7 if he called with a s.c. type hand, he only has about a pot size bet left in his stack, I would go for around 3-3.50 and pray he calls. He's almost never calling a jam, unless he has exactly a 7, or some weak shit like K7s or something stupid. Take it to value town and pray he looks you up. Just my deuce.
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acg123
His stats mean squadouche in all reality
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Not at all. The odds of someone playing 4/6 hands being a splashy fish is much higher than them being a reg, especially if hero's been playing these limits for a while and has a decent sample on the regs.
I'd go on that assumption and do what david said.
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baudib
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,233
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Shove, the range he'll call a smaller bet with will also call a shove like 95% of the time; he has Kx, 7x or JT way more often than a FD or AT/AJ type hands.
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Playing big pots at small stakes.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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$2.10 on turn, you made a big mistake there
pot or 3-button-theory on river
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PKKFW
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 244
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Thanks for the replies.
@daven - I agree that my big mistake was too small on the turn. Didn't want to scare him away but really if he was calling 1.8 he would have likely called 2-2.10ish and that would have set up a better bet sizing opportunity on the river.
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acg123
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PKKFW
Thanks for the replies.
@daven - I agree that my big mistake was too small on the turn. Didn't want to scare him away but really if he was calling 1.8 he would have likely called 2-2.10ish and that would have set up a better better sizing opportunity on the river.
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Exactly. I said not to jam cuz it would be a slight overbet to his stack size. Had you bet more on the turn then jamming the river wouldn't look so bad, and it would keep him from thinking " hey I might be beat here" and mucking a hand that should of paid you off. Hence the "value bet of 1/2 his stack on river" I previously posted.
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Imthenewfish
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: sites im allowed to play on
Posts: 945
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bet more on turn; as played it doesn't really matter that it's a slight overbet, shoving is still way better than 1/2 psb
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daviddem
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Philippines/Saudi Arabia
Posts: 983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acg123
His stats mean squadouche in all reality. I think his range is Kx,busted FD,MAYBE a 7 if he called with a s.c. type hand, he only has about a pot size bet left in his stack, I would go for around 3-3.50 and pray he calls. He's almost never calling a jam, unless he has exactly a 7, or some weak shit like K7s or something stupid. Take it to value town and pray he looks you up. Just my deuce.
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As d0zer already said, that is not true and there is a higher likelihood of him being a fish than a tight reg. The key word here is likelihood.
I you are interested in a mathematical proof, see here:
Maniac Math
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Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
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rpm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: learnin'
Posts: 2,041
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for someone who loves poker, goddamn i hate maths!
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PKKFW
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 244
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For the record I bet the river $4.50 and villain folded. I can only figure he's probably a d donkey drawing with a FD or maybe AJ.
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ColdDecked
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 217
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Pot pot shove against an unknown fishy looking guy.
You need plan your bet sizing for future streets.
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BlackRain79
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Vancouver, B.C.
Posts: 54
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I just shove here.
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