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kfaess

12-10-2009, 11:38 PM Post subject: Return after short hiatus

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jul 2008

Posts: 556

kfaess is an unknown quantity at this point

Hey guys,

Its been a while since I've posted on FTR ... I've been extremely busy with school work and other things going on in my life. I also have not been playing too much poker in the last 5 months although I have managed to move up from 10NL to 25NL. Anyway, its good to be back and some thoughts on these hands would be great:

This one is interesting:
His stats are something like 17/10 over small sample of ~20 hands. I wasn't thinking this at the table, but I guess if we can include hands other than aces in his range about as often as aces, then this is a clear call. This could be questionable given his nitty stats, but after only 20 hands with the guy I like calling.

SB ($26.10)
BB ($24.65)
UTG ($28.50)
MP ($24.85)
CO ($39.40)
Hero (Button) ($30.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K

, K

2 folds, CO bets $1, Hero raises $3, 1 fold, BB raises $24.40 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero

Hand 2:
This was played against an opponent who was running 28/26/4.6 AF over 140 hands.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($45.65)
Button ($13.15)
Hero (SB) ($25.45)
BB ($27.60)
UTG ($46.25)
MP ($24.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10

, 10

UTG bets $0.85, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.95) 2

, 5

, 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.95) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($12.95) 10

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $7, Hero ???

My main question on this hand is whether or not to shove the river for value (although comments on all streets are welcome). The only worse hands I can see calling this bet are smaller sets (unlikely) and higher overpairs (also pretty unlikely). Its also unclear whether or not he would fold an overpair to a river shove since there is a good chance I have a flush when I raise the river. He might reason I would raise a flush on an earlier street to prevent higher flushes from drawing out on me. I thought much of his range was bluffs and semibluffs, hence the checking.

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Pelion

12-11-2009, 01:04 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 3,206

Hand 1: After only 20 hands he could have folded every one and Id still call this. Its late position where the action happens and its only 100bbs deep. He also shoves rather than 4bets to a normal size, which is more likely to be something like AK than AA. Nothing about this makes me want to fold.

Hand 2: He can definitly have overpairs and sets. He can probably have any of the AK-ATs flushes as well as like KQ, KJ, maybe some more broadway flushes. On the river if he calls wider than flushes, overpairs and sets then raising obviously gets better and better.

Firstly, its important that we hold the Th. That cuts out quite a few broadway flush combos.
Secondly, its important to realise that for every flush hand (e.g. AKs) there is only one combo, whereas for every overpair there are 6, and for every set there are 3. This makes a flopped flush an incredibly small part of his range.

Anyway, we need more than 50% equity against his calling range in order to raise. I started to stove it to see how many hh hands he would need to raise from EP to make raising bad and pretty much gave up. I finally managed to get below 50% by saying the only overpair he calls with is AA, and still gave him all these combos of flushes.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.649% 48.65% 00.00% 18 0.00 { TcTh }
Hand 1: 51.351% 51.35% 00.00% 19 0.00 { AA, 88, 55, 33-22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h, 5h4h, 4h3h }

So yeah, if he calls the river with AA-QQ, then a raise is still profitable even when he has almost every possible

combo in his range :P.

More realistically we will have something like this

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.767% 69.77% 00.00% 30 0.00 { TcTh }
Hand 1: 30.233% 30.23% 00.00% 13 0.00 { QQ+, 88, 55, 33-22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h }

Ship it.

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

kmind

12-11-2009, 01:42 AM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Oct 2006

Location: Not Giving In

Posts: 4,240

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelion

More realistically we will have something like this

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.767% 69.77% 00.00% 30 0.00 { TcTh }
Hand 1: 30.233% 30.23% 00.00% 13 0.00 { QQ+, 88, 55, 33-22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h }

Sorry but the bold parts made me laugh.

OP - Spoon has a thread on analyzing all-ins that I suggest you search for. It's probably on page 2 or 3 in the BC. Anyways, you you should call this preflop even if he ends up shoving AA, KK, QQ 50% of the time and AK 25% of the time. If you have some more hands on him then yeah it definitely gets closer to a fold.

Hand 2 - I trust Pelion on this one.

spoonitnow

12-11-2009, 01:59 AM

#4 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: IRC Chat Room

Posts: 5,406

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.

bigspenda73

12-11-2009, 10:41 AM

#5 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,546

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

snap

snap

XTR1000

12-11-2009, 03:49 PM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2006

Location: surfing in a room

Posts: 2,188

XTR1000 is an unknown quantity at this point

Im so leading river in #2

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigred

xtr stand for exotic tranny retards

yo

kfaess

12-11-2009, 06:58 PM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jul 2008

Posts: 556

Thanks for the replies, I guess these spots were simpler than I originally thought.

Quote:

Originally Posted by XTR1000

Im so leading river in #2

The reason I checked is because when I was playing I thought his bluffing frequency was pretty high given his AF and stats, and since there was no fourth heart/no 4 (most semibluffs don't get there) then I felt we would get more value by inducing his bluffs to fire a third barrel than we would by leading and getting value from his legit hands while folding all his bluffs. Not to mention he's going to bet some hands on the river that he would call with anyway since we checked all 3 streets.

spoonitnow

12-11-2009, 07:18 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: IRC Chat Room

Posts: 5,406

Quote:

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

surviva316

12-11-2009, 08:04 PM

#9 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2009

Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms

Posts: 1,625

surviva316 will become famous soon enough

Quote:

Originally Posted by kfaess

just 'cause someone's aggressive over a 140 hand sample, doesn't mean their bluffing frequency is higher than their calling frequency on every street on every board. 1) there are more sets/99 type hands in his range that we beat but call a river bet than there are semi bluffs 2) who's to say he's even continuing with his semi bluffs because a) nobody triple barrels at 25nl and b) the Ts is not a great card to barrel and c) even if he thinks that you have a weak range that includes whiffed draws that are going to c/f, he may just check it back with AhJx for SD value

Quote:

Originally Posted by BooG690

I just wanted to share singing vaginas.

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