Poker Forum
|
Over 1,246,000 Posts!
|
|
|
|
dsaxton
|
|
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by dsaxton
This is an interesting problem for a math test, but I'm not sure that it has any relevance at the poker table. There are too many probabilities involved which could only be meaningfully approximately with tons of data on your opponent, and even if that information was available, no human would be capable of using it properly anyways.
|
No, you're dumb. |
Oh ok, I'm dumb. You win.
Why are you even a member here if that's the smartest thing you can say?
|
|
|
|
WhooFleuryScores
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 918
|
|
With Rockets I either reraise all in preflop;or move all in after the flop.More or less I never fold them preflop;sometimes I dump them if I know for sure the flop has me beat.Otherwise I let it ride.
|
|
|
|
dstir2
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
Posts: 144
|
|
this has got me thinking about moving AI preflop in a raised pot w/ AA. while i understand you would like to get others in the pot in order to commit them, i think, with the rough numbers im thinking in my head, moving AI preflop would be +EV simply because of the money you would gain everytime uncontested when everyone folds. I play .25/.5 nl tables, and if there are similar stacks around 45-55 bucks each, im in MP and someone in early raises it to 2.50 or 3 dollars, well, i think over time, the incredible amount of folds will overcompensate for the bad beat losses of moving all-in.
I'd go so far as to say you would be called 10% of the time at most. Worst case scenario, again, you are a 3:1 favorite if called, even so against multiple opponents.
so, in one hundred such hands, assuming someone raises in front of you 4XBB to make it 2.50 to call, you're winning 2.5 plus .75(blinds), 90 times out of a hundred, or 292.50$. The ten times you get called, you'll win 7 of those, at least, each one providing at least 53.25 a pop, bringing us to a winning total from 97 out 100 hands to 372.75+292.50=665.25. You'll lose, at most according to odds, 3 hands of the ten contested with, amounting to 150.00. All together, 665.25-150.00=515.25. So, holding pocket aces 100 times, you make an average of a little over 10XBB every time by going AI PF no matter what.
Maybe my math is off, but i really do feel that at tables from .25-.50 and higher nl, people will fold many times with an incredible raise, which will provide enough money to compensate for the bad beat breaks against aces. now, while it can probably be more profitable to play it a particular way, this is by far the easiest, and i don't think people will lose so much sleep over this type of situation. is an average winning of approximately 10XBB with aces very good? im not sure, this is the first thread ive every written considering +EV, but i gave it my best shot. be gentle if you think im being stupid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by dsaxton
This is an interesting problem for a math test, but I'm not sure that it has any relevance at the poker table. There are too many probabilities involved which could only be meaningfully approximately with tons of data on your opponent, and even if that information was available, no human would be capable of using it properly anyways.
|
No, you're dumb. |
Oh ok, I'm dumb. You win.
Why are you even a member here if that's the smartest thing you can say? |
Well do you say that flop odds are more interesting for a math test? Do you think the win percentage of a hand in heads up is a combinatorics problem only?
|
|
|
|
aleksandr
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 305
|
|
An interesting concept here. However, note that if you do make a play such that you are always +EV in this situation, a good player will always fold the hand unless he too holds AA. Therefore, making a reraise so that you are always +EV if he calls is probably -EV, because you are ahead in the hand as is and want as much money in the pot as possible.
|
|
Operation Learn to Read
Reads: 7 posted
Money: $31
SNGs: 0
MTTs: 0
|
|
dstir2
|
|
Straight
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
Posts: 144
|
|
thats not certain that they won't play w/o aces, especially if they are on tilt. i mean, i know there have been times when someone makes a big raise AI w/ pocket rockets, and i think w/ my kk, "well, i just don't think they have it or they would've raised it quicker, not slowplayed as much..., etc." and then make the idiotic call. It will be called and most of the time, the rarity of both holding rockets will not occur.
|
|
|
|
JJ 713
|
|
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Washington State usA
Posts: 9
|
|
I have found that most players will "overbet" the AA, KK on preflop and the amatures will go all in - What I usually do IF I got em and there are no big bets in front of me is bet around 4XBB and hope for a good flop.
If the flop shows a smaller pair I will only call smaller bets. If it flops a Set for me I will only bet 8XBB which alows the "fish" to call or rerise.
If the Turn makes a med. to big pair then I will bet 16xBB (now I have either a full house or 2 big pair) Only time I will call here and not bet is when there are 3 or 4 suited cards on table (unless they match my hand)
On the river if I am called (this all assumes that I have always made the Final raise-reraise in the hand and it is called) I will bet up to 24XBB if I feel I got it - I have seen over time most will fold at this point. If they call I have won about 60% of the time. If they reraise I will call and have won aroud 45% of the time.
Just my .02cents!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Very good observation... why would you bet if you wouldn't get a call from a weaker hand? Of course, this is assuming worst case scenario. But then the perfect play with these assumptions is not going all-in, but probably betting as much as you need to eliminate draws.
Of course you're going to take this calculation and apply texture and loose the players are... so why not start there? Although I can see how against loose players calling and then going all-in with a pair of aces will probably be EV+
|
|
|
|
edudlive
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 100NL 6max
Posts: 623
|
|
According to the sticky....
flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards 2.02%
The sticky didn't seem to mention him having something like KK or QQ and flopping out that 3rd Q or K though.
If he raised, I'd probably triple it, and see if he folds out and if he doesn't watch out for Q and K on the flop (wouldn't fold, but be careful). Then go AI at the turn if he didn't commit to more bets.
|
|
|
|
Latest Poker News
|
|
KoRnholio
|
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
|
|
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ...
|
| Thread Tools |
|
|
| Display Modes |
 Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT. The time now is 06:58 AM.
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
