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Carroters
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09-23-2009, 12:53 PM
Post subject: A rare 25NL triple barrel.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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No reads on villain, only 8 hands at the table. He's been open limping though I assume he isn't great.
On the turn I think I fold out his 55-99 type hands and random flats, I also get value from unpaired flush draws.
I was planning to shut down on most rivers only now I think I can fold out AJ QJ and also all the pps that floated 2 streets.
The only hands I'm really afraid of is KhTh, JT, KJ or slow played trips.
FWIW, I hardly ever 3-barrel at these stakes, but felt this was a decent spot. I mean there's always the risk that he can't fold a jack here at all in which case it's pretty bad since when he calls the turn that's probably a good amount of his range. Possibly, I should reserve these sort of plays for when I have a read that he can fold marginal hands.
Btw, I like the turn bet because I feel there's more middling pairs in his range than there is hands with jacks that will call preflop + we get values from fds. JTs-AJs KJo AJo = 32 combos (I think) 44-99 = 31 combos then theres his fds, random floats and the fact that he needs to fold less than half the time for it to be profitable anyway.
Thoughts?
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($24.75)
BB ($23.05)
UTG ($27)
Hero (MP) ($25.25)
CO ($53.90)
Button ($11.60)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 4 , 4
1 fold, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1, 3 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 3 , 3, J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, CO calls $1.60
Turn: ($5.55) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.70, CO calls $3.70
River: ($12.95) K (2 players)
Hero bets $8.10,
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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described villain also has TT-JJ, A3 and QJ in his turn range the majority of the time and QQ isn't all that rare.
i also think you underestimate how many hands in his range call the river because A) i think he's calling with AJ, JT, KJ like all the time and calling with QJ like at least half the time, and B) this river actually hit like all of his turned combo draws (AhKh, AhQh, KhQh).
so i don't think turn is bad, it's just closer than you described in op, and i might prefer to do it with a few outs, but i don't think river is good (unless you think he makes it there with split pairs, in which case turn is bad)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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clvacva
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 200
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Forgetting 9T of hearts QT of hearts AT of hearts which can find a fold on the river.
Ummm not sure about the turn....... The ten like surviva316 said gives him more draws plus some pairs.....and he aint folding a Jack maybe 99/88/77.
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if he's an unknown you're going to run into trips sometimes and you're going to be like HE HAS A3 AND HE DIDN'T RAISE? FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUU
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
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It's thin but I like it I guess.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Idk, I liked it at the time, but now the river seems a bit shitty since we really can't be confident that he can fold a jack here.
Although it doesn't matter, he called 3 streets including river with 88 here. I got pwnzered soul read obv.
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that's why you don't do it vs. unknowns
do it vs. people who you have established as non calling stations LIKE DUH OBVIOUSLY
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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shove river
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Idk, I liked it at the time, but now the river seems a bit shitty since we really can't be confident that he can fold a jack here.
Although it doesn't matter, he called 3 streets including river with 88 here. I got pwnzered soul read obv.
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i'm not terribly surprised.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas. |
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
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its not like its the worst result, you now have a sick line on his play and if you should be able to value pwn his ass along with everyone else who saw you do the bluff.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
its not like its the worst result, you now have a sick line on his play and if you should be able to value pwn his ass along with everyone else who saw you do the bluff.
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you can already do that at 25NL without having bluffed ever in your life
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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seriously, hate your river bet size
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
seriously, hate your river bet size
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I wanted him to be able to fold a J so didn't want to make it much less. Can you elaborate a bit on what you mean please?
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griffey24
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
seriously, hate your river bet size
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I wanted him to be able to fold a J so didn't want to make it much less. Can you elaborate a bit on what you mean please? |
He's not saying bet less, he's saying jam. There's no legit value hand you would have here that would be so small and not go all-in instead.
If you insist on bluffing here, then go all-in. Whether or not the bluff is good or not is villain dependent and would need more reads.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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ya pretty much, also the fact that two posts above that one I said shove river, probably a good indication of my thoughts as well.
griff in the BC.....yeabuddy
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