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Raising the river .... good? (25NL)

  
 
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Nakamura
Old 07-06-2009, 09:19 AM     Post subject: Raising the river .... good? (25NL) #1 (permalink)  
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 I don't have a lot of stats on this guy, but I think every raise he's made he's min-raised.

Given his play a Jx, or Qx type hand seems most likely. If a blank comes out on the river I'd definitely have checked as we have some show-down potential, but the K seems to give us a good opportunity to fold Qx hands. Am I on the right track here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($27.70)
Hero (Button) ($24.30)
SB ($25.55)
BB ($25.35)
UTG ($78.35)
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($3.45)
MP2 ($26)
MP3 ($15.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, J
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.35) 2, J, Q (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.65) 8 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.70, MP2 calls $1.70

River: ($6.05) K (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $4
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Illfavor
Old 07-06-2009, 02:38 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I generally like to have some idea of how my opp. plays before trying to get him to fold TP. I'm checking this down from the flap.
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Old 07-06-2009, 02:48 PM #3 (permalink)  
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needs reads
there are people who never fold a queen here and there are people who will fold a queen here
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settecba
Old 07-06-2009, 02:55 PM #4 (permalink)  
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IMO Qx is not a lot of his range here. 1/2 PSB flop with Qx doesnt make a lot of sense, and after c/calling turn his range is probably pretty weak, str8 draws, FDs, 99-TT.
T9 and KT got there by the river and youre not folding a lot of better hands than yours, if any. Also you cant vbet either since you probably dont have over 50% equity against his calling range.
Checking behind river makes more sense to me.
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oskar
Old 07-06-2009, 04:33 PM     Post subject: Re: Raising the river .... good? (25NL) #5 (permalink)  
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 I don't understand your reasoning for giving him Qx, Jx here... I mean there is a way you could put him on something like that, but it would be one hell of a read. - needs explaining.

Because of that, I don't understand the turn bet.

Making a river bluff also needs a very specific read that this particular opponent does not waste a calorie thinking about what you might be holding and is also very easy to scare off.




I think your main problem is assigning a reasonable range to his c-bet / turn check.
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surviva316
Old 07-06-2009, 04:43 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 i think betting the turn is your biggest leak in this hand...or at least for the reasons given. if you think like his whole range is draws (which it very well may be) then betting for protection is ok here, but if you put him on pairs here then you gotta check it and hope for either your hand to improve or for him to give you a chance to check it down
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Robb
Old 07-07-2009, 02:40 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 The worst street is preflop - I would auto-raise JTs otb against an MP limp. Then his reaction to the flop cbet will tell you all you need to know. As played, check down the river.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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XTR1000
Old 07-07-2009, 05:18 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Why waste ur beautiful pair on a river bluff?

Robb: Why´d you want to waste your sweet hand IP on a 3bet pre?
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Robb
Old 07-07-2009, 09:03 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by XTR1000
Why waste ur beautiful pair on a river bluff?

Robb: Why´d you want to waste your sweet hand IP on a 3bet pre?
oops - thought it was 50nl and mp limped
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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nish81
Old 07-07-2009, 09:21 AM #10 (permalink)  
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i'm not sure if i'd call the flop, but i'd definitely check down from the turn on
<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.

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