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LawDude
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03-05-2009, 09:35 PM
Post subject: raising a draw when you have a lot of outs
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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4/8 limit hold 'em, yesterday. UTG has played passively. I was in the cutoff with Ac7c. UTG limps in pre-flop, 1 other player calls, I raise. Folds around to UTG, who calls. The other caller calls again.
Flop was Q73 with one club. UTG bets, gets 2 calls.
Turn is a jack of clubs. UTG bets. Other player folds. I raised. UTG calls my raise.
River was an ace of diamonds. UTG checks to me, I bet, and he calls. I show my hand, he mucks his.
What happened here? Well, almost assuredly, UTG had a pair of queens. I was trying to draw out on him. When that turn hit, I now had 14 outs out of 46 cards. (Indeed, even if he had 2 pair, I had 14 outs unless he had a 7.)
So instead of just calling, I want to raise this turn. Why? Well, let's look at the advantages:
1. We may be able to induce a fold from a stronger hand, if Villain puts us on 2 pair or a set.
2. If we hit one of our outs on the river, we will have built the pot and may win more money.
3. We have confused Villain about what we have and the strength of our hand. This is especially valuable if we hit our flush, but it has some value even if we just hit 2 pair. (Villain later told me he didn't know what the heck I had and that's why he took a risk and called on the river.) Plus, it might even set up a bluff on the river if we miss and we think the Villain may fold to a river bet.
4. We can get some information about Villain's hand-- if Villain re-raises or leads out on the river, we may learn that some of our outs are no good or Villain has a hand that we can't beat.
5. We may get a free showdown on the river if we miss and decide not to bluff-- this may allow us to collect a pot if it turns out that Villain was playing a marginal hand, bluffing, or c-betting.
In the games I play in, I see people check-calling their draws all the time. Their theory seems to be to stay in the hand as cheaply as possible, and then bet if they hit (or perhaps bluff if they miss). But the aggressive play is often better here.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,602
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great post overall.
But people fold TP in limit on this board exactly .001% of the time.
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
great post overall.
But people fold TP in limit on this board exactly .001% of the time.
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True. But I wanted to lay it out as a potential advantage (especially since this same strategy can apply in no limit too). Whether you can induce particular players to fold is based on your reads, of course.
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Taicho
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Bloomington, IL
Posts: 102
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I completely agree with being aggressive with your big draws. Most of the time I'll push it when I've got 14+ outs (especially on the flop), but it also depends on my read of the opponent. If I've got 15 outs on the flop (straight and flush draw) and I feel my opponent may fold to pressure, I actually may lower my aggression a bit since I'm a favorite over most of his hands (I want to build the pot, and that won't be happening if I've convinced him on the flop that I've hit a set).
Great post though. Get your money in before you make your hand and you'll see far more action when you hit it.
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BennyLaRue
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Good post. And bravo for venturing outside of the Limit Forum. Some beginners may find LHE to be more to their liking but aren't exposed to it much.
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