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Demiparadigm
Old 10-19-2005, 02:49 AM     Post subject: Quick theory question: #1 (permalink)  
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Imagine a 6 max game with all 6 players having 100xbb.

What hands would each of the 6 players need to be dealt to make it the most likely that all 6 wind up all in preflop?
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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jmontis
Old 10-19-2005, 03:56 AM #2 (permalink)  
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AA AA KK KK QQ QQ

the best order for action would be

QQ raises, QQ reraises, KK reraises, KK reraises, AA reraises, AA reraises

what are the freakin odds of that happening
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 10-19-2005, 04:00 AM #3 (permalink)  
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You don't think that the guy UTG with QQ might get away from it after each player behind him raised?
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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jmontis
Old 10-19-2005, 04:02 AM #4 (permalink)  
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what about massive pot odds + implied odds, since he doesnt know he's drawing dead preflop, only to the minimal possibility he hits an 89TJ flop

hell this is just so improbable it's not even worth discussing heh
take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
 
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okietalker
Old 10-19-2005, 04:10 AM #5 (permalink)  
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If its on Party 6 max 200nl it would look like this:

JJ, 66, QQ, AK(s00ted of course), AJ, 45o

45 would win with a flopped 2 pair and start saying all sorts of pot odds shit.
Just my opinion (and I'm probably wrong) 8-) 8-) 8-) 8-)
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 10-19-2005, 04:48 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmontis
what about massive pot odds + implied odds, since he doesnt know he's drawing dead preflop, only to the minimal possibility he hits an 89TJ flop

hell this is just so improbable it's not even worth discussing heh
The only players "drawing dead" are the KKs, actually.

While it is improbable, I don't think that it is not worth discussing. Often you will be in a situation where there is an all in and a call in front of you, and you hold a strong hand yourself.

Of the 3 times that this has happened to me while I was holding QQ, I called twice, and I won none.
This has happened to me maybe 10 times while I had AK, I called about half, and won about half of those.

It brings up the question of whether you really do have pot odds in the event you need to call multiple all ins.
This is even more important in a tournament situation which goes back to all the "if everyone went all in in front of you would you fold AA?" questions.
Specifically, while it is approximately never correct to fold AA, it is probably sometimes correct to fold KK, and often correct to fold QQ.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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lolzzz_321
Old 10-19-2005, 05:08 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by okietalker
45 would win with a flopped 2 pair and start saying all sorts of pot odds shit.
lol

quoted for truth
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Lukie
Old 10-19-2005, 07:09 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I know this is a hypothetical situation, but think of the probability that AA, AA, KK, KK, QQ, QQ are all dealt in a 6 handed game. In reality, it's not possible. If it were to happen with competant opponents, it would be on a loose agressive, maniacal table. Maybe something like AJs, TT, AK, KQs, AQ, 88.

I would not expect a lot of high PP's, both because of odds and it takes away from other players' hands (if somebody holds AA, there are only 2 aces left in the deck to make hands like AK, AQ, etc. ) I would expect a lot of high broadways with a lot of domination, and maybe a couple mid-high pocket pairs.

About QQ here, somebody said it is often correct to fold QQ preflop. This is very true (as difficult as it is sometimes). If a tight player pushes my reraise with 100BB stacks, it's an easy laydown. But in a 6-way all-in, I would have to imagine folding QQ would be -EV. I don't really know though, it's not a situation that comes up every day.. or ever. :P
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Zangief
Old 10-19-2005, 10:19 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Specifically, while it is approximately never correct to fold AA, it is probably sometimes correct to fold KK, and often correct to fold QQ.
This is obviously read-dependent (no very aggressive players involved) and assumes rational players, but I think once there is a raise, re-raise, and re-re-raise, QQ is usually beat.

Example:

FullTiltPoker Game #218398813: Table Double Arch - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:51:55 ET - 2005/09/14
Seat 1: DizzeeRascal ($15)
Seat 2: Bad Beats 4 U ($22.60)
Seat 3: Zangief ($47.90)
Seat 4: Boiler131 ($10)
Seat 5: TripSearchin ($31.65)
Seat 6: Hendawg2 ($5)
Seat 7: Harkilicious ($10.25)
Seat 8: luke_golf ($9.75)
Seat 9: Born2playpoker ($15.60)
luke_golf posts the small blind of $0.10
Born2playpoker posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Zangief [:Qd: :Qs:]
Bad Beats 4 U has 15 seconds left to act
Bad Beats 4 U raises to $0.75 <--- Takes a long time thinking UTG, then raises
Zangief raises to $2.50 <--- I reraise

TripSearchin calls $2.50
Hendawg2 folds
Harkilicious folds
luke_golf folds
Born2playpoker folds
Bad Beats 4 U raises to $8.25 <--- Big re-re-raise, I'm probably beat, and no need to call $5.75 for set, either
Zangief folds

TripSearchin calls $5.75
*** FLOP *** [8c 2h 9s]
Bad Beats 4 U checks
TripSearchin checks
*** TURN *** [8c 2h 9s] [Th]
Bad Beats 4 U bets $10
TripSearchin folds
Uncalled bet of $10 returned to Bad Beats 4 U
Bad Beats 4 U shows [:Kc: :Kd:] (a pair of Kings)
Bad Beats 4 U wins the pot ($18.40)
TripSearchin adds $1.60
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $19.35 | Rake $0.95
Board: [8c 2h 9s Th]
Seat 1: DizzeeRascal is sitting out
Seat 2: Bad Beats 4 U collected ($18.40)
Seat 3: Zangief folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Boiler131 is sitting out
Seat 5: TripSearchin folded on the Turn
Seat 6: Hendawg2 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Harkilicious (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: luke_golf (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: Born2playpoker (big blind) folded before the Flop
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Seasider
Old 10-19-2005, 10:32 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I guess you need AA x 2 and KK x 2 and that takes care of 4. Then you need two idiots at the table, I see a lot of people flipping over 'great drawing hands' like J10 sooted after calling all ins. So I'll throw one of those in, diamonds because they're so pretty! And then probably a pair of Jacks or something, although this call would be really hard to imagine! A guy called all in against me with 88 yesterday but I would hope even in the craziest players brain some sort of alarm bell would be ringing!

Anyone want to flood onto a $5 table on stars and all go all in first hand, it'd be a hell of a hand history to post?!

Anyway on an aside in the British film 'Croupier' there is a scene where the hero is dealing to his mates. They arn't playing texas holdem, maby 5 card draw or something. He deals it so they all request the correct cards and end up going all in, the last player taking the money. I cant think of specifics as I dont know the game but the hands built up to a Royal Flush via quads full house straight etc. I think he ends up sleeping wit the woman he makes win.
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Humphrind
Old 10-20-2005, 03:35 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seasider
I guess you need AA x 2 and KK x 2 and that takes care of 4.
The chances of getting AA are 1 in 220.

On a 10 person table the chances are 1 in 22 (220/10)
Add KK to the mix and you have a 1 in 11 chance of someone holding that hand.
Add QQ and you have a 1 in 7ish chance.

On a 10 person ring game, it's not uncommon for someone to hold AA, KK, QQ.
I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 10-20-2005, 03:48 AM #12 (permalink)  
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But what strength hand must go to each position to best ensure that all players go all in?

FWIW, in the WPT event at Bellagio today, Mimi Tran got dealt KK, TJ Cloutier QQ and Daniel Negreanu JJ in the same hand at the same table.
Mimi made a big raise and both DN and TJ folded preflop. (~200BB stacks)
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Lukie
Old 10-20-2005, 07:03 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zangief
Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Specifically, while it is approximately never correct to fold AA, it is probably sometimes correct to fold KK, and often correct to fold QQ.
This is obviously read-dependent (no very aggressive players involved) and assumes rational players, but I think once there is a raise, re-raise, and re-re-raise, QQ is usually beat.

Example:

FullTiltPoker Game #218398813: Table Double Arch - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:51:55 ET - 2005/09/14
Seat 1: DizzeeRascal ($15)
Seat 2: Bad Beats 4 U ($22.60)
Seat 3: Zangief ($47.90)
Seat 4: Boiler131 ($10)
Seat 5: TripSearchin ($31.65)
Seat 6: Hendawg2 ($5)
Seat 7: Harkilicious ($10.25)
Seat 8: luke_golf ($9.75)
Seat 9: Born2playpoker ($15.60)
luke_golf posts the small blind of $0.10
Born2playpoker posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Zangief [:Qd: :Qs:]
Bad Beats 4 U has 15 seconds left to act
Bad Beats 4 U raises to $0.75 <--- Takes a long time thinking UTG, then raises
Zangief raises to $2.50 <--- I reraise

TripSearchin calls $2.50
Hendawg2 folds
Harkilicious folds
luke_golf folds
Born2playpoker folds
Bad Beats 4 U raises to $8.25 <--- Big re-re-raise, I'm probably beat, and no need to call $5.75 for set, either
Zangief folds

TripSearchin calls $5.75
*** FLOP *** [8c 2h 9s]
Bad Beats 4 U checks
TripSearchin checks
*** TURN *** [8c 2h 9s] [Th]
Bad Beats 4 U bets $10
TripSearchin folds
Uncalled bet of $10 returned to Bad Beats 4 U
Bad Beats 4 U shows [:Kc: :Kd:] (a pair of Kings)
Bad Beats 4 U wins the pot ($18.40)
TripSearchin adds $1.60
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $19.35 | Rake $0.95
Board: [8c 2h 9s Th]
Seat 1: DizzeeRascal is sitting out
Seat 2: Bad Beats 4 U collected ($18.40)
Seat 3: Zangief folded before the Flop
Seat 4: Boiler131 is sitting out
Seat 5: TripSearchin folded on the Turn
Seat 6: Hendawg2 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: Harkilicious (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: luke_golf (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: Born2playpoker (big blind) folded before the Flop
I think it's pretty clear that you are beat here, but why not just call and hope to flop a set? Maybe you can make this fold if you think the guy behind you is going to push, but he didn't come over the top of the first reraise.
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Old 10-20-2005, 07:19 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seasider
I guess you need AA x 2 and KK x 2 and that takes care of 4. Then you need two idiots at the table, I see a lot of people flipping over 'great drawing hands' like J10 sooted after calling all ins. So I'll throw one of those in, diamonds because they're so pretty! And then probably a pair of Jacks or something, although this call would be really hard to imagine! A guy called all in against me with 88 yesterday but I would hope even in the craziest players brain some sort of alarm bell would be ringing!

Anyone want to flood onto a $5 table on stars and all go all in first hand, it'd be a hell of a hand history to post?!

Anyway on an aside in the British film 'Croupier' there is a scene where the hero is dealing to his mates. They arn't playing texas holdem, maby 5 card draw or something. He deals it so they all request the correct cards and end up going all in, the last player taking the money. I cant think of specifics as I dont know the game but the hands built up to a Royal Flush via quads full house straight etc. I think he ends up sleeping wit the woman he makes win.
dude i'm so down for flooding a $5 sng table and pushing all in blind... haha... i wonder how the payouts would be done...
 
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Zangief
Old 10-20-2005, 01:04 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lukie
I think it's pretty clear that you are beat here, but why not just call and hope to flop a set? Maybe you can make this fold if you think the guy behind you is going to push, but he didn't come over the top of the first reraise.
There is about $14 in the pot when it gets to me and my opponent has about $14 behind, so I could likely win $28 if I hit my set. I have to call $5.75 for the chance. That's $28-to-$5.75 or less than 5-to-1. I like to be getting 8-to-1 if I'm sure he is committed to his hand. It's clear he is committed here, but I'm not getting 8-to-1. I think calling here loses money in the long run.

If I could also destack the other opponent in the hand, then it might be profitable. But I think the chances of that are less than 50%.

If the raise was only something like $4 for me to call, I would have called with the correct implied odds.
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