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LuckySlevin
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09-11-2008, 07:51 PM
Post subject: question about hand probabailities charts
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Live Poker Room
Posts: 1,050
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From the poker odds section, at the bottom where it has probabability of various hand combinations, e.g. dominated hand vs undominated hand etc...
are they all pre flop probabilities, or are they the best hands made after the flop?
http://poker-odds.flopturnriver.com/
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If there's a flop next to the cards, it's postflop, if there isn't, it's preflop
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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They are preflop. Such as a higher pair vs a lower pair. The higher pair will win approximately 80% of the time if AIPF. Just as a dominated hand will only win approximately 25% of the time (AQ vs AK example). That is if you went allin preflop 100 times with AK against AQ you should expect to win ~75 times. Precentages obviously change on the flop,turn,river depending on the boards and how the hands connected with the board.
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jolub
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Michigan, USA
Posts: 80
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
They are preflop. Such as a higher pair vs a lower pair. The higher pair will win approximately 80% of the time if AIPF. Just as a dominated hand will only win approximately 25% of the time (AQ vs AK example). That is if you went allin preflop 100 times with AK against AQ you should expect to win ~75 times. Precentages obviously change on the flop,turn,river depending on the boards and how the hands connected with the board.
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I have wonder about this for a long while. This is very helpful information.
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jolub
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Michigan, USA
Posts: 80
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An Open-Ended Straight Draw on the Turn or River:
In the chart it's listed as 31.5%. I don't think that's the correct number. You have 8 outs out of 47 cards. Which is about 6 to 1. So I think this would be about 15% or 16% not 31.5%.
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jolub
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Michigan, USA
Posts: 80
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An Open-Ended Straight Draw on the Turn or River:
In the chart it's listed as 31.5%. I don't think that's the correct number. You have 8 outs out of 47 cards. Which is about 6 to 1. So I think this would be about 15% or 16% not 31.5%.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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it means turn and river so there are two cards to come.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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jolub: badgers is correct here. You shouldbe applying the rule of 4 here. That is with two cards to come you multiple the number of outs you have * 4, which gives you ~32% of catching on of your outs by showdown. However, as a disclaimer, you should only be using the rule of 4 when facing an allin on the flop, because that means you are guarenteed to see both the turn and river card for the price you are being offered. However, that isn't the case if villain bets and still has money behind. In which case you apply the rule of 2.
Also your method of determining the odds is flawed. On the flop there are 47 unknown cards in the deck. 8 of them help you. You don't just put that as 47:8 or 6:1. Instead you must subtract the cards that help from the cards left. So you get 39:8 or ~4.9:1. That is your odds of hitting with one card to come. This is the approximately the equivalent of using the rule of 2.
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jolub
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Michigan, USA
Posts: 80
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Thanks for your help. I know about the rule of 4/2. I don't know why I hadn't been appling it here. You just plugged one of my leaks. I have been using this rule only for flushs in determining pot odds.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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The rule of 2 and 4 can be applied to any situation in which you need to determine the chances of hitting card that is likely to win the hand for you (ie. a draw).
And please note what I said about using the rule of 4 inappropiately. If you do you will spew in some instances (barring having a solid foundation of implied odds).
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jolub
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Michigan, USA
Posts: 80
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I agree. I must rethink my mode of operation. I'm glad I found this post. It's going to help my game, no doubt.
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