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QQ vs AA pre

  
 
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trilerian
Old 10-30-2009, 07:43 PM     Post subject: QQ vs AA pre #1 (permalink)  
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trilerian
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($1.29)
UTG ($1.95)
UTG+1 ($2.26)
MP1 ($5.39)
Hero (MP2) ($2.77)
CO ($1.84)
Button ($2.36)
SB ($4.01)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with ,
3 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 1 fold, Button calls $0.08, SB raises to $0.28, 1 fold, Hero?

I have about 300 hands against sb, my notes on him say; only raises AA pre, and will stack off with them. Normally to set mine we need 15 to 1, and I only have about 12 to 1. But knowing I will win his stack 90% of the time I hit a set, and will fold any time an A hits the flop, even if I hit my set am I alright to set mine here? I personally think that being able to range opp here exactly lets me play post flop perfectly, and the implied odds of winning 12 times the amount we have to call is enough.
Grinding my way to 100NL, 1 2NL bb at a time.
 
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Monsieur_chat
Old 10-31-2009, 12:17 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Seeing someone only 3bet AA over 300 hands is not the same as knowing they only ever 3bet AA.
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Pelion
Old 10-31-2009, 01:19 AM #3 (permalink)  
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What are his stats? How often has he raised preflop over the 300 hands? How often has he 3bet.

If you absolutely sure that he can only have AA you can sethunt. If he can also have KK then its much worse (since an A or K will flop fairly often). If he can have other hands then it gets worse.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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spoonitnow
Old 10-31-2009, 01:49 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Don't show or suggest results please.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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trilerian
Old 10-31-2009, 06:26 AM #5 (permalink)  
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trilerian
Villain has only open raised or raised pre with AA in 300 hands that I have played against him. There are quite a few people at 2nl that only raise with AA pre. His stats are 9/0, and I really give him credit for it cause I have seen him show up with KK after limping after a couple in late position.

Spoon; not sure how I have shown or suggested any results but a specific range pre, which ultimately is what we strive for.

Edit: I'm not asking whether or not anyone thinks my range for sb is right, I'm asking whether or not I can call the 3-bet profitably (ev+) assuming sb has only AA here. Forget that I have QQ, it could be any pocket pair as I am only set mining in this instance. I need to know if I can call the 3-bet here, and if so, what is the max 3-bet I can call, or what is the min implied odds I can "chase"?
Grinding my way to 100NL, 1 2NL bb at a time.
 
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Stacks
Old 10-31-2009, 06:55 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Stacks will become famous soon enoughStacks will become famous soon enough
 Do the math.
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trilerian
Old 10-31-2009, 07:02 AM #7 (permalink)  
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trilerian
Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Do the math.
The math is exactly what I am having a problem with here!! I get up to the point of I hit my set 1 out of every 8 flops, so out of 8 times I will win $1.37 , stacking him once for $2.77 and losing 7 times for $1.40, but I have to account for the times an A hits the flop and my Q hits the flop, and this is what, 1 out of every 10 times I hit a set, fine, then once every 80 hands I lose an additional .20c. but how do I calc for the times the A comes on the turn and river when I am already all in on the flop?
Grinding my way to 100NL, 1 2NL bb at a time.
 
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Belt
Old 10-31-2009, 01:34 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trilerian
but how do I calc for the times the A comes on the turn and river when I am already all in on the flop?
You can use pokerstove. This is the easiest way but if you want to know how to calculate;

You know the 3 cards on the board by the flop, you know your 2 cards and you know your opponent holds 2 of the 4 Aces in the deck. So you know 7 cards, there are 45 cards more in the deck and you want to calculate the probability to hit at least one of the other 2 Aces by the river.

* You must calculate the probability of Aces not to hit and substact it from 1.

1 - [(43/45) * (42/44)] = ~8,788%.

* Another easy (this way you find a very close but not exect true result) way to calc this is to find the probability for an ace to drop by the turn and the river and add them. Since the probability of the turn and the river are very close you can find the probability for turn and multiply it by 2...

(2/45) + (2/44) = ~9%.

After that add roughly 1% to find his equity (since aces may hit runner runner flushes or str8s). His equity is 10%...
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