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CBAT
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03-12-2009, 04:05 AM
Post subject: QQ Set
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NY
Posts: 831
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($21.50)
MP2 ($21.60)
MP3 ($20)
CO ($25)
Button ($40.85)
SB ($2.05)
BB ($25)
Hero (UTG) ($20.40)
UTG+1 ($30.60)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q , Q
Hero bets $1.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1.25, MP2 calls $1.25, 5 folds
Flop: ($4.10) Q , J, 10 (3 players)
Hero bets $2.75, MP1 calls $2.75, 1 fold
Turn: ($9.60) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $3, Hero ?
Total pot: $9.60 | Rake: $0.45
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
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Any reads?
At this point it looks like we're hoping for a boat on the river, I'm too tired to run the calculations on this so someone else can do it.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
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CBAT
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NY
Posts: 831
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Nope, no reads, only seen 6 hands with him (just sat down).
I figured I'm looking for the boat on the river, but I don't feel that I have to odds to be playing for the boat. Possibly the implied odds to be playing for it? I'll run it through pokerstove to see what my odds of hitting the boat are.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
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Assuming he has the straight (which I doubt is the only part of his range here) you're a 75/25 dog
3/9.60+3=24% so it looks like you can call regardless of implied odds and do a bit better than break even, since his range will have more than just Ax in it, so you're ok calling.
I apologize if this is totally wrong because I've done so much today I pretty much forget what beats what.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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You are already getting 4:1, and you are definetely getting more if you hit, looks like an easy call to me.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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CBAT
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NY
Posts: 831
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Alright.
I folded because of emotion, which I try to keep out of my game. I was angry that the turn had come with a K. I didn't even think about what had happened, just that he was on an Ace. But after folding I really thought about the chance that I had of hitting a boat.
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clvacva
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 200
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For me this is a tough spot
It is so easy to put the opponent on an A
he calls the flop and bets the turn on such a horrible card
for your hand.
I would call here hope for a boat or that he has a worse hand than your set
like two pair JJ/TT
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mieczkowusc
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Lurking in BC or IRC
Posts: 225
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I snap call, and most likely c/f if I don't hit my boat, but maybe would call a small bet if the river isn't a diamond.
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CBAT
Alright.
I folded because of emotion, which I try to keep out of my game. I was angry that the turn had come with a K. I didn't even think about what had happened, just that he was on an Ace. But after folding I really thought about the chance that I had of hitting a boat.
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Dont take this the wrong way, written words may sound harsh, but I dont mean it.
Are you not thinking about your chances of hitting a boat WHILE PLAYING???
You got 9 outs+ 1 to quads. That gives you 36:10, or 3.6:1. You were already getting more than 4:1 on your money, and chances were your implied odds were great(very likely his whole stack). A call here is +++++++EV.
Again, I didnt want to sound too harsh with my question there. I read an article today written by spoon titled "how to play poker", and I think it goes hand in hand with my question.
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S1x
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Two Pair
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 44
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The most important thing to pay attention to at all times is the odds, especially towards a moderately small bet like that. The odds were definitely in your favor to see if the board paired. If feelings affect your knowledge of those odds, first you probably need to practice keeping emotions in check.
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CBAT
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NY
Posts: 831
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I usually do. Just made a frustration fold there that's all.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
Quote:
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Originally Posted by CBAT
Alright.
I folded because of emotion, which I try to keep out of my game. I was angry that the turn had come with a K. I didn't even think about what had happened, just that he was on an Ace. But after folding I really thought about the chance that I had of hitting a boat.
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Dont take this the wrong way, written words may sound harsh, but I dont mean it.
Are you not thinking about your chances of hitting a boat WHILE PLAYING???
You got 9 outs+ 1 to quads. That gives you 36:10, or 3.6:1. You were already getting more than 4:1 on your money, and chances were your implied odds were great(very likely his whole stack). A call here is +++++++EV.
Again, I didnt want to sound too harsh with my question there. I read an article today written by spoon titled "how to play poker", and I think it goes hand in hand with my question. |
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by settecba
Quote:
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Originally Posted by CBAT
Alright.
I folded because of emotion, which I try to keep out of my game. I was angry that the turn had come with a K. I didn't even think about what had happened, just that he was on an Ace. But after folding I really thought about the chance that I had of hitting a boat.
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Dont take this the wrong way, written words may sound harsh, but I dont mean it.
Are you not thinking about your chances of hitting a boat WHILE PLAYING???
You got 9 outs+ 1 to quads. That gives you 36:10, or 3.6:1. You were already getting more than 4:1 on your money, and chances were your implied odds were great(very likely his whole stack). A call here is +++++++EV.
Again, I didnt want to sound too harsh with my question there. I read an article today written by spoon titled "how to play poker", and I think it goes hand in hand with my question. |
Well, it's actually 46-10. And he is getting about 3-1 on his money (you don't count the amount bet in the payoff odds-- $12 paid on $3 is 3-1 odds). So the pot odds, strictly speaking, would make the bet a slightly negative EV play. But the implied odds as well as the possibility that Villain hasn't actually made his hand make up for the discrepancy.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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What's wrong with leading out for a PSB, and snapcalling a shove?
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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Lawdude, please check againg what you said. I dont think I messed up. 10 outs gives 3.6:1 odds. And pot odds are also correct, pot is 12.75 after opp bets, so hero has to call 3 to win 12 ----> 4:1.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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S1x
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Two Pair
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 44
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Right, the $3 he bet on that street will be in the pot no matter what. And 36 "bad" cards vs. 10 "good" cards remaining is exactly 3.6 to 1, or 10/46 = about 22%.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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In order for a call to be correct on the turn you need >19% [(3) / (12+3)] equity. With 10 outs we have approx 22% equity. A call here is +ev based specifically on pot odds. And you likely have significant implied odds, as there is still around $13 effective stacks, and I doubt he will fold his flush/straight if the board pairs.
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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When you said you folded this hand I almost fainted.
LOL just kidding..
If he had bet something like $8 you can consider folding.. but I'd have a hard time shoving even then.. he could have 55 or two pair and just be taking a shot at the pot since he knows you can't call without a flush/straight. Even if the board doesn't pair, it could go check/check and you win.
I just looked at the hand again.. why the hell would he bet $3 with a straight? He wouldn't.. its a 3 flush board. I really think he has KJ or something here.. or the Ace of diamonds.
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