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trilerian
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11-06-2009, 06:58 PM
Post subject: QQ facing raise on drawy board against maniac, range check
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 124
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UTG is a bit of a maniac but over a small sample of hands, is playing 68/32 over 30 hands. I have seen him limp, then 4-bet A2o from UTG a couple of orbits ago. So definitely capable of bluffs pre, stands to reason he will bluff at the pot sometimes as well then. Anyways, I need a range and math check here and want to know if I should be jamming against this range.
JJ-77,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,QJo,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o
I have 46.5% equity against.
He only needs 28% to call a shove from me, and the worst hand in his range here (77) has 29%, so I think he calls 100% of the time. Doing the math I win 2.03 on average and am putting 1.84 at risk, so this seems +EV for about 9 1/2 bb's. Comments on range and math are more than welcome.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($4.96)
MP2 ($2.58)
CO ($4.70)
Button ($1.61)
SB ($4.96)
Hero (BB) ($2)
UTG ($2.91)
UTG+1 ($1.80)
Preflop: Hero is BB with  , 
UTG bets $0.04, 4 folds, Button calls $0.04, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.16, UTG calls $0.12, 1 fold
Flop: ($0.37)  ,  ,  (2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, UTG raises to $0.62, Hero?
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Outlaw
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,033
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I ship it here. There so much crap he will call with you are beating.
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Vinland
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Between a couple of points.
Posts: 610
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OMG man add some hands to his range. A maniac is raising here with KT, AT, possibly middle pair w/ good kick, multiple FD's and SD's....
Just shove it and hope he calls. You should have plenty of equity against a chip masher here.
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I confess in quicksand
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trilerian
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 124
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I discount hands like AT, AJ, and really should be discounting most pp's here as well, cause most of the time maniacs are just shoving to a 3-bet pre. But KT is a good one that should be in there, and heck maybe even A9, A8, A7. The more I think about it, the more I realize how many truly junk hands can show up here, especially if villain thinks I am bluffing with AK.
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Grinding my way to 100NL, 1 2NL bb at a time.
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tomato paste carnage
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: in a van down by the river
Posts: 115
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You are more than likely ahead of his range. Shove.
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Tilt is poker cancer. You catch it, you die.
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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maniacs aren't always shoving AT, AJ pre. i would definitely include those in his flop range.
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Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tjzw758oZrA
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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I'd give him a wider range, he'll turn up with some surprising stuff here. I'd add A7-AJ for sure.
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Just playing to improve.
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trilerian
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 124
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
I'd give him a wider range, he'll turn up with some surprising stuff here. I'd add A7-AJ for sure.
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To say the least, I was suprised. How often does a maniac show up with KK here?
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Grinding my way to 100NL, 1 2NL bb at a time.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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AJ/KJ/QJ/TJ/QK/AQ/AK/66-AA/A7/K7/AT/A9/A8/T9/98/87/76/etc.....
sometimes you gotta get some gamble going on
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