QQ 3b pot OOP - river spot

i'd c/f river, cant see what worse he'd bet river with and i dont think he is bluffing often enough.

wait for other opinions too, people say i am too tight and i mis out +EV spots.

Can't see him folding a J you dont loose to much, holding the Qh is good for us. Put it in I say 5s and 2s are not in many folks ranges so we're only worried about JJ. Allow him to make the mistake he might even call with Ahigh.

The problem with betting is really what do we get value from? I can't see him getting to the turn with a naked J after the 3b pre and the cbet on the flop, so that would leave really stubborn 88-TT that *could* call (if they even called the turn to start with).

On the other hand he can't have too many flush draws here, (unless he maybe floats AhKh).

What else can he have getting to the river? JJ, QQ, 55, 22, slow played AA/KK, 56s, 57s, A5s... everything beats us...

So maybe better check and hope he checks behind. Because if he bets we probably have to call as he could well be bluffing (repping a flush without realizing that it is unlikely he has one)?

edit: and now all of the above considerations make me wonder whether we should even bet the turn. Or if we do it, it should probably be much smaller.

Man this is 2nl, just shove.

I don't see a lot of 5s calling the 3bet and only the rare flush will make the river. Only 20 hands but stats are leaning towards stationy. Vs 88+,AhKh,AJs,A5s,65s we're still ahead of his range so vbet small and calla shove.

River shove is half pot bet. We get called by top pair for sure, 77-TT looks us up some frequency, and even when we lose, we get to see villain calling 5x or 2x to pf 3bet, or floating flop with Ax backdoor flushes in 3bet pots etc... nearly everything he beats us with, we can exploit him later for having that in his range.

Just shove. Villains at 2nl won't see 50bb going into the pot, they see a dollar.

Originally Posted by daviddem

What else can he have getting to the river? JJ, QQ, 55, 22, slow played AA/KK, 56s, 57s, A5s... everything beats us...

If you're including 75s and A5s in his range after preflop, then why not all sorts of jack-based hands too?

That is the range getting to the river. He can have Jx hands getting to the flop but I doubt he calls the cbet with any of them (other than JJ obviously).

I am also not saying that A5s or 65s are always in his range otf, but that IF he calls with them preflop then he would continue with them to the river.

So we could optimistically give him a river calling range of:
88+,AhKh,55,22 and sorry but I really have a hard time giving him any AJ after the flop here (he is not that fishy). Against that range I have exactly 50% equity.

You could discount AA-KK and AhKh a bit, but then you could also argue that 88 and 99 would not call all the way.

I still think it's close, but if everyone wants to shove fine, so be it.

What do you think of the turn bet?

shove.
if you aren't losing at least some of the time when your value bets are called by the 20th nuts then you're doing it wrong. It's ok to bet without the nuts.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

River shove is half pot bet. We get called by top pair for sure, 77-TT looks us up some frequency, and even when we lose, we get to see villain calling 5x or 2x to pf 3bet, or floating flop with Ax backdoor flushes in 3bet pots etc... nearly everything he beats us with, we can exploit him later for having that in his range.

Just shove. Villains at 2nl won't see 50bb going into the pot, they see a dollar.

All of this - when there's not much behind and a lot in the pot, I think you can often profitably "spew for information", and win enough of the time for it not to really be spew anyway.

all in

Originally Posted by daviddem

That is the range getting to the river. He can have Jx hands getting to the flop but I doubt he calls the cbet with any of them (other than JJ obviously).

someone who is calling preflop with 75s is not folding the flop or turn with top pair.

jam river

If worse hands aren't calling here in your game, then you should be barreling more often!

Originally Posted by d0zer

someone who is calling preflop with 75s is not folding the flop or turn with top pair.

It's true but he doesn't have top pair on the flop with Jx.

Originally Posted by daviddem

It's true but he doesn't have top pair on the flop with Jx.

my bad. Then sub in 66-TT, they're basically the same thing here.