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tandar

09-25-2007, 10:49 PM Post subject: Push or fold?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2005

Posts: 22

Villian has been at the table for awhile. I don't think he would make this play without at least the K.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($26.30)
MP1 ($19.70)
MP2 ($26.55)
CO ($13.85)
Hero ($18.95)
SB ($25.35)
BB ($13.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4

, A

.
1 fold, MP1 raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.50) K

, 3

, 5

(3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $0.75, Hero raises to $3, SB folds, MP1 raises to $5.25, [color=#CC3333]Hero ???

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Deanglow

09-25-2007, 11:36 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Push because you have fold equity and you're 50/50 against almost everything.

tandar

09-26-2007, 12:04 AM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2005

Posts: 22

I did make the push and that was my reasoning behind it as well. I figured AK, AA, KK or KQ he would probally call, anything else there was a good chance he would fold

NLHE lahooozaher

09-26-2007, 01:31 AM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

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I call because you have no fold equity when he 3 bets the flop. wtf would fold after 3 betting the flop?

grnydrowave2

09-26-2007, 03:27 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Do you even need fold equity to justify a push? Worst case scenario is he has a set and you have 13 outs. Easy choice for me.

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xd40

09-26-2007, 08:50 PM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2007

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Posts: 16

u have tons of outs and u r better than a king... shove obv

BankItDrew

09-27-2007, 12:13 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

I call because you have no fold equity when he 3 bets the flop. wtf would fold after 3 betting the flop?

All hands that would 3-bet the flop asking: "Do you have a better hand than me?"

I'm with the "Push because you have fold equity and you're 50/50 against almost everything," from Deanglow.

You have lots of fold equity, because you are four betting all in, which is a strong play.

What's the worst that could happen? Villain calls and we break even in the long term.

Vi-Zer0Skill

09-27-2007, 12:23 AM

#8 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
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Quote:

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Quote:

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

I call because you have no fold equity when he 3 bets the flop. wtf would fold after 3 betting the flop?

Regardless, is it not more +EV to take 5:1 pot odds in position in a hand where we will almost always get villains stack? If he is donk enough to make this crappily sized 3bet he is likely going to be a station even if a scare card (diamond) hits and 1/3 of his effective stack is in the middle. Plus we will always get his stack if a deuce comes on the turn.

PLUS we don't know if he will make a super shitty sized turn bet (referencing shitty sized flop bet), and offer us great odds to draw again!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carroters

Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools

Vi-Zer0Skill

09-27-2007, 12:23 AM

#9 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
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Oh yeah and definitely zero fold equity.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carroters

Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools

Evansgambit

10-12-2007, 03:12 AM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2007

Posts: 22

Yup, agreed you have no fold equity. The raise preflop, and the big raise on the flop states this.

At worst, he has a good King (KQ is best for you, AK is not) or pocket Aces, at best two kings for top set. However, would he raise it up with a set of Kings? maybe? fearing the flush draw?

I think in this scenario, Aces can't be outs for you. Since if he has AA or AK or KK for the set, pairing your ace won't help. You only have a gutshot straight and flushdraw. Thus you need a 2 or diamond, in which case you have 12 outs only - Not enough to be the favourite (48%), but enough to make a good gamble.

Now your thinking, if only you had called on the flop. Well, my thinking is, when you have a big 50% draw, play it however you want bearing in mind later scared cards and profit. But I just dislike the ALL IN semi-bluff because it is a sign of weakness not strength, in my opinion. You probably only have fold equity when your opponent has very little.

Chopper

10-12-2007, 04:36 AM

#11 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Location: St. Louis, MO

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher

I call because you have no fold equity when he 3 bets the flop. wtf would fold after 3 betting the flop?

agreed. he calls your push here, imo, too.

and, if he calls your push, and you are supposedly 50/50 past this point...all you do is increase your variance on a "breakeven" play.

call, and hammer him when you hit the str8 or flush. you have great odds at this point.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

2_Thumbs_Up

10-12-2007, 02:25 PM

#12 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Apr 2006

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Posts: 271

What if we call and think he might fold when a diamond hits?

Deanglow

10-12-2007, 04:02 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Right now we are 50/50 but what if we a blank comes on the turn? Are we calling a huge bet on the turn and folding the river unimproved? If a diamond or ace comes on the turn we might lose action. Push this on the flop all day. How are we representing weakness if we go allin here?

pokerfan

10-12-2007, 06:27 PM

#14 (permalink)

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To shove all-in, we have to put in another $15.95 for a chance to win the pot of $25.25 if our opponent calls. Our bet is getting 1: 1.5830 pot odds.
Given the action on the flop, we put our opponent on some legitimate range (KK+,AKs,AKo) . Of course, if we include KQ, our pot equity is even better. In general, our odds of winning the hand till showdown is 1:1.255 underdog. Big money odds plus a little bit fold equity forces us to go all-in regardless of the result. On the other hand, if we play over 150 BB deep stack, we might want to just call and reevaluate on the turn.
---
14,850 games 0.005 secs 2,970,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 3d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.340% 43.98% 00.36% 6531 53.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 55.660% 55.30% 00.36% 8212 53.50 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

---

littlewashu

10-20-2007, 08:31 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Maybe just a call is in order here. If like some said he has a legit hand and you are on a draw just callining hereand seeing if you make youre flush or not makes senese to me. Ifyou dont make youre flush fine you arnt going to bet him off a good hand neway

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Vi-Zer0Skill

10-20-2007, 10:28 PM

#16 (permalink)

Reagan's Kid
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.047 secs 442,340 games/sec

Board: Kd 3d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.330% 41.07% 00.26% 8539 53.50 { Ad4d }
Hand 1: 58.670% 58.41% 00.26% 12144 53.50 { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, AKo }

---

This is a more accurate range IMO. While it is full ring, there are plently of players who don't open limp any hands in full ring as well as 6Max or other sized tables.

There is $10.75 in the pot already, and Hero has approximately $15 behind. It would cost Hero $2.25 to see the turn, so he would be getting slightly more than 5:1 pot odds on villain's flop raise. Assuming villain is not going to fold on the flop regardless of the action, there is no fold equity.

Hero has around 41% equity versus the above range of hands, and it's the same range of hands that would call a shove. Given the large amount of money already in the pot, going all in on the flop is a profitable play. He would need around 39% equity to make pushing 0EV.

Assuming there is exactly $10.75 in the pot, and Hero has exactly $15 behind, his actual EV when just going all in on the flop (assuming no fold equity) would be very close to +$0.76.

Hero needs a little less than 21% equity to make calling with his hand oEV. His hand only has around 41% equity when he gets to see both the turn and river. He is getting slightly more than 5:1 pot odds on villain's flop raise. So, given the pot odds Hero is getting, he doesn't need any implied odds to make just calling the flop bet a slightly profitable play.

Assuming it costs Hero $2.25 to call the flop raise, he will only get to see the turn card, and that there is $10.75 in the pot, his actual EV when just calling the flop bet (assuming no implied odds) would be very close to 0EV.

This villain is probably not going to fold 100% of the time on a draw completing turn, however, so there are significant implied odds to consider. Hero will almost always get villain's entire stack if the turn card is a deuce. Hero will also likely be able to win a portion of this villain's stack on either the turn or river on a diamond turn.

And there are plays Hero can make versus this opponent to see the river profitably even if he doesn't complete his draw on the turn. A blocking bet may induce villain to make another min raise, for example. And investing $4 into a $16 pot to see the river card with around 21% equity and the likelihood of being able to win this villain's stack on almost any draw completing river is +EV.

Versus a weak opponent, calling the flop bet and extracting value on draw completing cards and folding more cheaply when Hero misses is more profitable than going all in on the flop. This is because Hero can better take advantage of his implied odds on later streets versus a donkey than a competent opponent.

Although versus a more competent opponent, going all in on the flop is going to be more profitable because Hero won't be able to take advantage of his implied odds as well versus someone who will fold more often on a draw completing turn/river.

Also, a more competent opponent isn't going to be offering correct pot odds for Hero to call on the flop with a nice draw.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carroters

Ambition is fucking great, but you're trying to dig up gold with a rocket launcher and are going to blow the whole lot to shit unless you refine your tools

BankItDrew

10-21-2007, 12:24 AM

#17 (permalink)

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raising is also good because diamonds are scare cards, also it'll help our image when we have made hands.

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bigspenda73

10-21-2007, 12:31 AM

#18 (permalink)

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shove l d o

Miffed22001

10-21-2007, 12:02 PM

#19 (permalink)

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Posts: 8,181

if shoving is breakeven, do you think your opponent is stacking off when you catch your obvious draw?
He is when you catch your not obvious draw for sure.
Seems like an easy push because you dont get stackz IMO when you catch if you only call.

pokerfan

10-21-2007, 04:10 PM

#20 (permalink)

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Given their relatively shallow stack sizes (below 80 BB) and lots of dead money in the pot, pushing all-in is no-brainer

Chopper

10-21-2007, 04:49 PM

#21 (permalink)

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i need to correct my previous post, i believe. where at a 25NL level i dont believe in pushing small edges (i would wait for the inevitable larger ones), i do believe, upon further review, that this is in fact a push...on the flop.

if you can get it in now, do so. villain will most likely not pay off when your flush connects. if you can get the stack in now, you will definitely get paid. if he folds...so be it.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

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